Gone Like The Mastodon

Every single thread on SKS's mentions the $50 Chinese guns from the late 80's.

Dear Boomer:  That was 40 years ago, at least.

Even accepting the government's numbers, that SKS should be $150 today.

But it isn't.

China can't export them to the US any more.  Thanks Slick Willy!

That means the supply is fixed.

Demand is not declining, so the price must go up.

That price is $500-$800 now.  Depends on completeness, condition and provenance.

You're not impressing anyone with your, "back in my day!" objections.

A movie ticket isn't 5¢ anymore either.

Denying that prices have climbed over the years means you're not getting an SKS unless you find a chump.

I'm a little raw about this because I've been dealing with it with car people for decades.

Yes, that Chevelle is worth $50,000.  No, they're not letting it go for $2,500.  It doesn't matter if you sold one just like it for $2,000 thirty years ago.

Movement

A Swiss pharmaceutical company is either building a new plant or expanding an existing one here in the US.

This is in response to the Chinese tariffs and not on the Swiss ones.

Interesting.

Even better, getting the production out of China should assist with quality control.

I'd heard rumblings back when my mom worked for Roche that they lost as much to riding their Chinese workers to keep quality up as they saved in cheaper labor.

And that was nearly 30 years ago.

I'm thinking that some companies were itching to make the change and now have the political cover from the US to do so now.

366.24

Did you know that every year the earth actually rotates 366.24 times?

"But there are only 365 days in a year!" I hear you object.

Both are true.

We lose a "day" each year to our rotation around the sun.

Neat, huh?

In Accordance With Departmental Guidelines?

These four officers are fucking heroes.  No doubt about it.

Unloading on an autistic kid with a knife while on the other side of a barrier.

I, for one, am ecstatic that they all got to go home safe.

Because that's what's important.

That cops are safe.

That's all that matters.

The above is sarcasm, just in case you can't parse it.

I'm utterly fed up with cops being held to a lower standard than the general populace.

There was very little that autistic person could have done with that knife from the other side of the fence.  That means there was no imminent danger to the four officers.

The autistic person was also, apparently, contained in their own yard, so no imminent threat to the public.

What, most likely, happened here was Karen got mad at the kid, dialed 911 and started filming.

Except for The Boy having a knife or getting shot, we've been here and done that a lot.

The main difference is our sheriff isn't in the habit of hiring and covering for cowards.

The Boy, in fact, was a driving force in the local department changing training and guidelines for dealing with the mentally challenged!  Some of my legal drama contributed, in fact.

 

Thanks Unnamed Asshole

The entire point of having an NAS is to be able to access and edit my files from any machine on the network.

That point is defeated if the files become read only.

I am not sure how it got set, but something created a hidden file that told LibreOffice that the file I wanted was locked.

I didn't do it, but there was a ~lock<filename> in the folder.

The cat's proclivity to walk on keyboards and activate unknown keyboard shortcuts is suspected.

Skunk Rewrite

I think I messed up the affliction for the skunk.

Bad Smell is, I believe, the primary effect of being sprayed by a skunk with blindness and coughing only happening as follow-on secondary effects.

Going to make it cost more, of course.

Being a skunk is expensive! 

Update:  Turns out I already had official stats for the skunk's spray in Dungeon Fantasy 5: Allies.  They are cheaper than what I had.

Affliction 1 (DX; Based on DX, Both rolls, +40%; Disadvantage, Bad Smell, +10%; Extended Duration, x300, +100%; Malediction 1, +100%; Nauseated, +30%) [38] 

That gives us:

Exalted Skunk

-67 Points

Attribute Modifiers: ST -4 (No Fine Manipulators, -40%) [-24]; DX +2 (No Fine Manipulators, -40%) [24].

Secondary Characteristic Modifiers: SM -3.

Advantages: Acute Hearing +5 [10]; Affliction 1 (DX; Based on DX, Both rolls, +40%; Disadvantage, Bad Smell, +10%; Extended Duration, x300, +100%; Malediction 1, +100%; Nauseated, +30%) [38]; Blunt Claws [3]; Discriminatory Smell [15]; Fur [1]; Night Vision 5 [5]; Sharp Teeth [1].

Disadvantages: Bad Sight (Nearsighted) [-25]; Cannot Speak [-15]; Quadruped [-35]; Social Stigma (Wild Animal) [-10]; Restricted Vision (Tunnel Vision) [-30]; Wealth (Dead Broke) [-25].

Features: Tail.

 

Full Restoration

A side effect of living in the same town as Iowa State University is rubbing shoulders with both agronomy students and farmers.

You pick up bits and pieces of practical genetic manipulation here and there.

Nothing you can use for anything, but enough to not be lost in the conversation.

Reading about these dire wolves is sounding awfully similar to listening to two friends discussing soy beans.

That makes me say that they have not made dire wolves at all.

It's not a gray wolf or dire wolf.  It's something new.

There was a quote with several articles that I can't find now but the gist was they wanted to restore the dire wolf to its proper place in the ecology.

So you're going to kill those three pups you spent so much time and money making?

Because that's a dire wolf's proper place in the ecology.  Dead.

They went extinct when gray wolves kept going.

I'm not a scientist, but part of me thinks the damn things might have been dumb as posts and that's why La Brea is full of dire wolf skulls and not gray wolf skulls...

Personally Affected

I ordered a spare keyboard for DerpyPuter on ebay.

It was in China.

Tracking says, "returned to shipper."

I'm thinking the tariffs have something to do with that.

But if that helps to get Chairman Pooh disposed, then I am proud to be doing my part!

Retired Names

The two storms that went over my house last year have had their names retired.

That's a first for me.

Helene and Milton will not be used again.

Fuck This I'm Out UPDATED

I said with The Biscayne that I was never doing unreliable AC again.

The Beast has unreliable AC.

I'm out.

I don't have the resources to keep fixing things and never getting to the modding part of hot rodding.

Update:

It might have been a simple fix.

I went out to the car to move it more out of the way, since I was planning on letting it sit for a while.

On a lark I popped the hood and pushed down the plunger on the HP port.  Hardly a pssssh.

I had a can of R134a laying around so I put it in.

Compressor fired right up and the air was blowing cold!

That's a positive sign.  I had been imagining that the sealant we tried had clogged something.

So I shut it off and disconnected my fill line and I heard hissing from the LP port!

So I asked Marv if he could come over with his gauges and a couple cans of R134a, then removed the schrader valve from the LP port; losing that can I'd just put in...  C'est la vie.

New schrader installed, two 12oz cans installed.  Pressures reading correctly and air blowing 43° at the center vent (just like the tables in the service manual says for 93% humidity at 73°F.)

Cautious optimism installed!

If we're really lucky, this was where the leak has been all along.  Eyes crossed.

The Sleep Of The Just

 

Mist and Shadow have scampered themselves to exhaustion.

Well Worth Watching

H/T Feral Irishman.

Turkoon

The corvith just gets me going on all other kinds of hybrid animals that could be created if a wizard is responsible for things like the owl-bear.

Same sort of thing, except turkey and racoon.  Turkoon!

A sort of gryphon made with a pigeon and a rat.  Update: I asked FuzzyGeff what one would call this and he said, "I think the traditional answer is 'pigeon'."

The possibilities are endless!

Really Unfamiliar

I looked up familiars in the D&D books I have.

AD&D and AD&D 2e's find familiar spell summons a real creature and grants powers to both the wizard and familiar.

OG's list of familiars is a lot more fun than 2e's.  2e is just some normal small critters, OG summons stuff like quasits and pseudo-dragons.

4e and 5e you're not summoning a real creature.  You're summoning an entity that takes the form of a creature.

The 4e list has lots of fun options.

5e is mundane critters like 2e...  LAME!

But now I have what I want to create an analog for GURPS if I ever get my extended module run going.

I Chewed!

Harvey made meatball subs and, without thinking about it, used the right side of my mouth to chew.

That's where the temp-crown is and I had no problems beyond noting that I'm a little more temperature sensitive than before.

That tooth has always been sensitive, it's just worse with the temp. 

I am significantly less sore than last monday.

UnFamiliar

Statting out the corvith reminded me to read up on how to get a familiar in the 4e rules.

It was not near so complicated as I'd feared it would be.

It's under the Ally advantage and there's notes specific to making a familiar.

It's straight forward.  First you stat out your familiar like a character to determine how much they're going to cost as an ally.  Then you purchase any special abilities they grant you with a -40% limitation "provided by familiar".

Done.

That was way simpler than I expected.

I remember the 3e version being nearly impossible to parse.  Update: The rules were in Compendium I and they are not as bad as I recalled.  They are VERY expensive, so I can see why our mages didn't have familiars when we played a fantasy setting.

I'm leaving figuring out were-creatures to FuzzyGeff.  With the exception of Mikhail, he's the only other player I remember who played a were-thing.

It was the morality skunk.

My only sort of were-creature was a Oriental Adventures Cat-Hengeyokai played in one of Standing Bear's worlds.

Corvith (Updated)

Corvith

ST 4; DX 14; IQ 4; HT 10
Will 10; Per 12; Speed 7; Dodge 10;
Move 7 (Ground)
SM -3; 8 lb.

Traits: Acute Vision 3, Extra Arms (Beak); Domestic Animal; Flight (Winged -25%; Air Move 14); Fur; Horizontal; Sharp Beak; Catfall; Combat Reflexes; Night Vision 5; Sharp Claws; Temperature Tolerance 1.

Skills: Brawling-14; Jumping-15; Stealth-14

Exalted Corvith

52 Points

Attribute Modifiers: ST -6 [-60]; DX +4 [80].

Secondary Characteristic Modifiers: Basic Move +1 [5]; SM -3; 8 lb.

Advantages: Acute Vision +3 [6]; Extra Arm (Beak, Short -50%, Temp Disad - Cannot Speak -15%) [4]; Flight (Winged -25%; Air Move 14) [19]; Fur [1]; Sharp Beak [1]; Catfall [10]; Combat Reflexes [15]; Night Vision 5 [5]; Sharp Claws [5]; Temperature Tolerance 1 [1].

Disadvantages: Horizontal [-10]; Social Stigma (Domestic Animal) [-10]; Wealth (Dead Broke) [-25].

Features: Feathers, Fur, Tail.

Racial Skills: Brawling (E) DX [1]-14; Jumping (E) DX+1 [2]-15; Stealth (A) DX [2]-14.

So You Want To Play A Skunk

Exalted Skunk

-40 Points

Attribute Modifiers: ST -4 (No Fine Manipulators, -40%) [-24]; DX +2 (No Fine Manipulators, -40%) [24].

Secondary Characteristic Modifiers: SM -3.

Advantages: Acute Hearing +5 [10]; Affliction 5 (Blindness +50%, Contact Agent -30%, Jet +0%, Limited Use, 5-uses -10%, Reduced Range /2 -10%, Rear Only -5%; Secondary - Irritant, Coughing +2%; Secondary - Bad Smell +2%, Extended Duration, Permanent (2-weeks or special cleaner to remove) +30%) [65]; Blunt Claws [3]; Discriminatory Smell [15]; Fur [1]; Night Vision 5 [5]; Sharp Teeth [1].

Disadvantages: Bad Sight (Nearsighted) [-25]; Cannot Speak [-15]; Quadruped [-35]; Social Stigma (Wild Animal) [-10]; Restricted Vision (Tunnel Vision) [-30]; Wealth (Dead Broke) [-25].

Features: Tail.

Coincidence

So, I went looking for what historians believe caused recessions and depression in American history.

Even the downturns that coincide with tariff increases are generally attributed to speculation and collapse of a foreign bank or market.

There's no causal relationship between the tariff increases and the downturns.

The 1828 recession that many people are blaming on the US increasing tariffs was happening because the United Kingdom had banned trade with the US.  The tariffs were a, "yeah, fuck you too!" measure that didn't really affect the loss of trade.  The increases were also set to match the tariffs that England had placed on the trade it had just banned.  Oh, and it lasted about a year.  Hardly the existential crisis that some people are making out to have been.

The 1820s saw a lot of recessions, actually.

Hmmmmm...  The '20's seem to be bad times no matter what two numbers are in front of them.

History might not repeat, but it rhymes.

Also, the Great Depression was shorter and less severe than many in the late 1800's and early 1900's!  It lasted 3 years 7 months and the economic downturn was around 25%.

The Panic of 1873 aka The Long Depression lasted 5 years 5 months and the downturn was about 34%.  Some historians say it really lasted until 1896.  It was caused by (surprise) economic problems in Europe and a domestic bank that was invested in those European problems failing.

Look it up!

I'll bet you'd never even heard of The Long Depression!

That there are many, compelling, arguments to the cause of the Great Depression that contradict each other, you cannot say, with certainty, that any one thing caused it.  Written by very highly educated and competent economists.

As with everything affected by the invisible hand, it's the combined circumstances that do it.

It's speculation AND tariffs AND changing the monetary policy AND deflation AND...  AND AND AND.

But That's Not What You're Buying

$1,300 for the, nicest, M1911A1 from CMP seems steep when compared to Tisas or Rock Island Armory.

It even makes a brand new Colt seem quite affordable.

But what so many people are missing:

You're not buying the gun, you're buying the history.

An extreme example is a beat up old Remington revolver with provenance that it was actually owned someone famous.

Are you buying a beat up old revolver or are you paying for that provenance?

If the provenance means nothing to you, it's just a beat up old gun.

But you gain no moral superiority over the person who wants that provenance and is willing to pay for it.

Though, I suspect that much of the heat from people declaring that they'd never get one is sour grapes.

Get Smoot-Hawley Out Of Your Whore Mouth

The circumstances behind the Smoot-Hawley act and the reciprocal retributive tariffs are not even similar.

Yes, they are both tariffs, but that's about where the similarity ends.

Nothing in SH reduced the tariff if the foreign nation reduced theirs.

The reason it was an economic problem was other nations retaliated against our tariffs.

If you're going to cite SH, then you need to get the roles straight.

We are retaliating against the rest of the world's version of SH, NOT passing one of our own.

Did you see the chart that Trump had up with the various tariffs?  Where we're going to put about half what they put on us?

Have you seen a refutation of that chart?  One that says, "China isn't really charging a 67% tariff on US goods, it's really x%."  That 67% is the Chinese Smoot-Hawley act.

Most of the nations on that chart are in serious discussions about getting off that chart.

That, you economic and historically illiterate morons is the fucking goal.

Opening up THEIR markets to OUR goods so WE can make some money for US for a change.

Or did you think the trade imbalances were entirely because our goods were no good?

The EU is getting off fucking light with just a 20% tariff, by the way.  The maze of entry barriers to their market is dizzying and mercurial.  The Ur-example is Boeing v Airbus.  If the federal government subsidized Boeing the way Airbus is, Boeing would be barred from European skies.  But when we threatened to bar Airbus planes because of their subsidization, again Boeing would be barred from EU skies.  They've been having their cake and eating too while we stood watch against the Soviet Union and Russians for them.

But go ahead, tell me you don't know fuck all about this topic without saying you don't know fuck all about this topic.

What Do I Know I'm Brainwashed

I am sure he's a nice guy, but I'm fucking over him.

When he accused all us American veterans of being brainwashed all y'all said, "well, he's Russian..." as if that actually explained something.

Well, I've been reading his thoughts on Facebook about economics and I can definitively say that he's an excellent photographer.

But, hey!  He's Russian!  I guess it's fine they're not only economically illiterate, but repeating stuff that's just not true because it makes a good TDS soundbite. 

PS: He's been here long enough that he'd better stop being Russian and start being American.  Just sayin'.

PPS: If you say that he IS an American, then you cannot use the "but he's Russian" as a defense of his slandering anyone.  A uneducated foreigner gets some slack, but he should know better by now.  It's not that hard to say, "I'm sorry," but all y'all defended him so he didn't have to either apologize or learn.

Because I Seen It

Something I watched more than once in Germany was someone bringing their American car over and overheating it on the autobahn.

American cars aren't made to run at 100 mph for hours.

I also heard of tires coming apart at those sustained speeds because cheap tires aren't speed rated for that.

The reason this bubbled back up for me was Texas saying they were going to remove speed limits in some parts of the state.

I think a lot of people are going to learn the same lessons my fellow soldiers did in Germany in the 1980's.

An Idiot's Guide to GURPS Basic: Characters

If you're trying to get someone to play GURPS, get them to watch this.  I think it will help.

Life Support

The AC on The Beast decided to start fading on the way back from Ocala today.

Typical symptoms of low freon in a WM car is the AC runs colder at the vent than it should and the compressor shuts off momentarily, but with increasing frequency, until it stops working altogether.

Since I've been smelling the PAG, that means the leak is prolly at the evaporator.

If a $30 can of sealant will cure it for a year, I can face pulling the entire dash and replacing the evaporator!

It's not an expensive part, it's just hard to access thanks to making cars Union Assembly Easy.

The AC on Harvey's Equinox has been spotty for a while and it's been strange.

When it finally decides to work, it works great, but we can't count on it working.

Tonight I finally remembered to check the relay.  If you jumper it, the compressor kicks on and works.

Tapping the relay a few times got it working again!

New relays are on order.

Popular In Singapore

Got 15k views from Singapore the last couple days.

Somehow, I doubt it's actual viewers.

A Win11 Feature I Can Embrace

As a blogger who writes total B.S. on occasion, an app that automatically goes to all-caps without spellcheck would be handy.

Sucks When Your Paradigm Breaks

I'm still on Steve Jackson Games mailing list and I got this today:

An Important Message From Our CEO Meredith Placko

On April 5th, a 54% tariff goes into effect on a wide range of goods imported from China. For those of us who create boardgames, this is not just a policy change. It's a seismic shift.

At Steve Jackson Games, we are actively assessing what this means for our products, our pricing, and our future plans. We do know that we can't absorb this kind of cost increase without raising prices. We've done our best over the past few years to shield players and retailers from the full brunt of rising freight costs and other increases, but this new tax changes the equation entirely.

Here are the numbers: A product we might have manufactured in China for $3.00 last year could now cost $4.62 before we even ship it across the ocean. Add freight, warehousing, fulfillment, and distribution margins, and that once-$25 game quickly becomes a $40 product. That's not a luxury upcharge; it's survival math.

Some people ask, "Why not manufacture in the U.S.?" I wish we could. But the infrastructure to support full-scale boardgame production – specialty dice making, die-cutting, custom plastic and wood components – doesn't meaningfully exist here yet. I've gotten quotes. I've talked to factories. Even when the willingness is there, the equipment, labor, and timelines simply aren't.

We aren't the only company facing this challenge. The entire board game industry is having very difficult conversations right now. For some, this might mean simplifying products or delaying launches. For others, it might mean walking away from titles that are no longer economically viable. And, for what I fear will be too many, it means closing down entirely.

Tariffs, when part of a long-term strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing, can be an effective tool. But that only works when there's a plan to build up the industries needed to take over production. There is no national plan in place to support manufacturing for the types of products we make. This isn't about steel and semiconductors. This is about paper goods, chipboard, wood tokens, plastic trays, and color-matched ink. These new tariffs are imposing huge costs without providing alternatives, and it's going to cost American consumers more at every level of the supply chain.

We want to be transparent with our community. This is real: Prices are going up. We're still determining how much and where.

If you're frustrated, you're not alone. We are too. And if you want to help, write to your elected officials. You can find your representative and senators' contact information at house.gov and senate.gov. Ask them how these new policies help American creators and small businesses. Because right now, it feels like they don't.

We'll keep making games. But we'll be honest when the road gets harder, because we know you care about where your games come from – and about the people who make them.

 

I'm not finding a lot of sympathy in my heart for them. 

I don't think they realize that what they are really saying is, "our business model of having someone else be the manufacturer of our products has just failed."

They are just a design studio because they have no production of their own.

I remember full page ads from the companies that did the printing and die cutting in America when everyone was, "it's so much cheaper in China!"  Those ads were practically begging for business and support.  But companies like SJG went to China instead of supporting the domestic company and the domestic companies went under.

But I have an observation:  This looks like an opportunity!  Buy a building.  Buy some machines.  Invest in those domestic companies who are willing but lack the ability to do the volume required.

Sell at a price point that is lower than the 54% tariff!  Which, by the way is actually 34%, don't lie.

This, by the way, is the real intention of those tariffs.  To get production back on shore.

Rather than complain that mean old orange man fucked me, be the savior of the industry and start being the domestic company that actually makes the games!

Or are you spending too much on DEI to afford it?

Mist The FEMA Kitty Update

She's up to 5 lb. 7 oz.  Up from the emaciated 1 lb. 6 oz. when we took her in and expected her to up and die on us.

Going to be getting spayed in a couple weeks.

 

This Is Awesome

 Best April 1st video ever.

Refreshingly Honest

Spoke to the person at the local VSO that the American Legion hooked me up with.

For the first time, ever, the person who is supposed to help me wasn't even implying that I would be getting a substantial increase in my compensation.

There was a bit of a hang up trying to explain that I'm wanting an increase because the underlying problem got worse since I got out, not that I want something from before I left the service added on.

We're going to reconvene after my neuropathy assessment.

Appreciation

 My blade of Slavic might has gone up in value a bit since 2017.

$39 then, $100 now.  Even the ones with mismatched serials are $80.

Instantly out of stock, as is typical of emailings from Atlantic.

I Like Him As An Actor

Val Kilmer has succumbed.

Wikipedia says pneumonia.

I watch one of his earliest movies, "Real Genius" fairly regularly.

Quote Of The Day

"Uh oh!"

-G. A. Custer