Assuming Oswald makes the relatively simple shot...
-7 for the skull.
+4 for Acc for aiming.
+1 for braced.
40 yards for the first shot, (-10 for elevation) effectively 30. -7 for range.
The 20 yards per second speed of the limo adds to the range making it 50 yards, effectively, and -8 to hit.
-10 to hit, this is the shot that missed! He'd need a skill of, at least, 13 to get a roll at all.
70 yards for the second shot. 90 for the third. Very little lateral movement from vehicle speed.
-9 for the second shot and -10 for the third.-7 to hit the skull.
+4 for Acc for aiming.
+1 for braced.
-11 for the second shot, -12 for the third.
To get a roll at all for the third shot, Oswald has to have a skill of, at least, 15.
I've statted myself at 16 from measuring my groups and accounting for all the variables and I don't think of myself as an awesome shot...
I've seen players roll statistically unlikely rolls in the game before, so a skill of 18 and a rolls of 9+, 7- and 6- in a row is plausible.
5d pi to the neck/body. No DR. 10 HP. Avg damage roll will be 17.5 points, or 17. Possible damage ranges from 5 to 30 points.
10 HP done to Kennedy, 7 continues to Connally.
Hit to the body. If average hit, wrist cannot be struck.
Normally the rules don't allow for the wrist to be struck either, but we can extrapolate...
It would take 3 points of damage to cripple a hand. That means Connally had to have taken 13 points of damage and Kennedy 23.
Using both the Bleeding rules from B420 and the Body Hits rules from High Tech 162, the first shot only does 10 points of damage to Kennedy and 13 to Connally.
Both people hit appear to have made their consciousness rolls.
5d pi to the skull. DR 2 from the bone. An average, 17 point, hit will get 15 points to penetrate and is quadrupled for 60. Auto death.
The Kennedy assassination GURPS.
Update: Simple math mistake fixed and the effects of that changed. 4 x 15 is NOT 30. DURRRR.
And yet Expurts!!!! tell us Oswald couldn't do it, with a rifle known at the time as a decent woods deer gun able to make kill shots on squirrely deer in woods and brushy lots at 300 yards. Coincidentally, Oswald did exactly what the designers of the gun designed the gun for, less than 500 yard shots and an action that's capable of rapid fire, in a platform light and easy to bring to bear.
ReplyDeleteWell, same Expurts!!!! tell us the Trump Ear Shooter couldn't do it at less than 200 yards with an AR action, and especially since he didn't make the high school shooting team, making him a good, not great shot before he practiced with his weapon. Again, well within the capabilities of the weapon, and within the design parameters of the weapon.
Nor the Trump Golf Course Shooter couldn't hit Trump at 200 yards with an SKS with a scope taped to the gun (even though he wasn't going to shoot until Trump got far closer.) Even though Brandon Herrera himself tried it with a scuzzy SKS and a sight and tape and said it worked to 300 yards easily. Again, gun was going to be used within the design parameters of the weapon, so Trump should have been way dead except for a Secret Service agent flushing the shooter (and said SS agent missing shots he should have been able to make...)
I think there's far more chance Oswald was working for the Soviets or Cubans than it was a CIA plot. And the 'Second Gunman' theory is so far out in left field, well, scientifically and statistically it is possibly possible, but, nah, really, nah...
The ear shooting doesn't GURPS because the minimum damage is 8 for that .30-06 rifle and it did actually hit Trump.
DeleteI have no rules for grazes, except as a narrative device for a miss.
Thought the ear was AR-15 (.223 or 5.56). Kirk, however, was claimed to be '06, but I don't think anyone will ever see the "recovered" projectile, so it could have been, at this point, any caliber.
DeleteMaybe I'm mistaken but I thought that the Trump ear shooting at Butler was presumably .223 Rem or 5.56x45 NATO, at least the photos released of the rifle appear to be an AR15 pattern and not the extended AR10-ish type needed to handle something as large as a .30.06 Spr which if I recall correctly is a 62mm long case. The .30-06 Spr shot recently I think was the one that killed Charlie Kirk and was a neck shot? Oswald of course famously used 6.5×52 Carcano.
DeleteAs for minimum damage one aspect is the question of how many hit points an earlobe or the outer part of the ear have -- lack of rules for grazes appears to be an omission maybe. Even if the shot had completely taken Trump's ear off chances are it wouldn't have been fatal, lots of people survive an injury like that, provided prompt first aid and professional medical treatment. Kennedy on the other hand reportedly Oswald''s shot opened up a big chunk of his cranium. That is quite obviously often DRT fatal which I doubt I even need to say.
-swj
Got my shooters confused! It was a 5.56 rifle which should do 4d+2 pi and a minimum damage of 6 not 8.
DeleteStill don't have rules to nick an ear.
Neck is the same as body for piercing attacks in GURPS. .30-06 in UM is 7.62x63mm.
DeleteI don't know if the Charlie Kirk assassination will GURPS or not. Max damage for .30-06 is 43 points, but if you use the optional rule from High Tech, all but the HP of the victim will be wasted. Clearly he was in making death rolls territory...
Trump's ear was a near hit. A very non-critical hit, a mere flesh wound. Stang, hurt, but nothing really other than a bit of blood and an interesting scar. Don't know if GURPS does scratches and superficial boo-boos, but that's what happened.
ReplyDeleteTrump definitely made some sort of saving throw. Again, don't know if GURPS does saving throws, but Trump rolled a natural 20 on initiative and pure luck (or divine assistance if you go that direction.)