Global Warm Ping Cough

Something that's driven me insane with Globull Warmering that's repeating with Wu Ping Cough is the models.

It's important to make the old predictions available to compare with the actually happened to test the veracity of the model.

You don't just add the what happened to the front, and add more model to the back.

You have to show where your model missed and what you corrected and then overlap the new model that accounts for the what really happened.

Several sites are showing dire predictions and as the not as dire as predicted keeps happening in the real world, they just move the direst date down the road.

The model can't be wrong, therefore the start point for Armageddon was just off a week or so...

But since they expunged the week-ago predictions, you can't see how far off they were.

Shenanigans!

Truth

Stolen from Technomad's Facebook page.

Man, she ain't kiddin' with this pic (she being the artist, Technomad is a he (or was last time we spoke I will not assume any present gender identification should they have decided to change teams for tax purposes)).

There was a time any fantasy character I played would be an elf.  Half-elf at the absolute outside worst if I couldn't get the DM to let me play the class I wanted.

I was fixated on playing rangers too.  (Not that kind of Ranger, Willard!)  Hmmmm.  Come to think of it, I did make a LOT of Rangers in Twilight: 2000 too...  Uh, nevermind!

I have noticed that I have not made an elf in years, despite having played in and made characters for many fantasy or cross-over fantasy settings.

I have made a lot of dwarves.

This is something I would never have considered in high-school.

OBOSOB

Bulleit bourbon.
Famous Grouse Smokey Black scotch.
Liquid Garage Do You Want S'More milk stout.

A Good Desection Of The Idea That Wu Ping Cough Has Been In The Wild Longer

The Curve Is Already Flat

tldr:  It was here for three months before anyone clued into what it was and we're much farther along the curve than is being reported by the panic stricken media.

Look Out Grumman and H&K

AM General loses trademark lawsuit over use of Humvee in video game.

I was a pretty avid flight sim junky and I noticed the lack of several planes in the Pacific theater.

The TBF Avenger being the most noticeable.

The reason?  Grumman sued the balls of people who attempted to use the plane in their game because they owned the trademark on "Avenger" when associated with airplanes.

From the cancelled A-12A program and TBF, they felt they owned the use of the name.

Never mind they didn't apply the name to the plane.  Never mind that General Motors has as good a claim to the name because they made a lot of TBM Avengers.

Never mind the people whom really own these planes are the citizens of the USA.  TBF and TBM are the official US Navy designations, not Grumman's.  It was designed in accordance to a US Navy requirement and every single plane was paid for by us.  Avengers in foreign service were resold and the money put back into the treasury.

I eagerly await the TBM in DCS...

Nugatory Revolvers

As a cavalry mage, my character would be issued some sort of .38 Revolver.

Most likely a Colt M1894...

Or an M1892 upgraded to M1894 standards.

Those are the most common, issue, sidearms in 1899.

.38 Long Colt fired from one of these does 2d-1 pi to ranges of 110/1,200 and weighs 2.5/0.2; RoF is 3 and 6 shots take 2i to reload.

Knowing about reports from The Philippines and the presence of megafauna on the other side of a spookhole...

What if he wants something heavier duty?

There are sufficient quantities of M1873 revolvers and stocks of .45 S&W to be issued this instead.

The normal 7" cavalry model does 2d-1 pi+ to ranges of 120/1,300 and weighs 2.8/0.3; RoF is 1 and six shots take 3i to reload.  Loading real .45 Colt ups the damage to 3d-2 pi+, but he'd have to come up with that out of pocket.

If he has to buy ammo out of pocket, why not the whole gun?

The Colt New Service is available in .45 Colt.  It does 3d-2 pi+ to ranges of 120/1,300 and weighs 2.8/0.3; RoF is 3 and six shots take 2i to reload.

I doubt that an andrewsarchus is going to be much intimidated by any of the three above choices.

A big one will have 27 hit points with DR of 2.  2,500 pounds of screaming carnivore, the largest meat eating mammal to walk the earth.

Max damage, hit to the vitals with .38 Long Colt...  27 points.  A major wound, to be sure, but hardly fatal.

Full load .45 Colt?  42 points!  At least a death roll and a consciousness roll.  With a HT of 13, don't count on this dropping it.

Might be better off with the carbine.

An average hit to the vitals will deal 57 points of damage, and a max roll 102.

The carbine also has a fair chance to get past the 4 DR of the skull for a brain hit, with an average damage of 68.  A max damage roll from .38 Long Colt to the brain is a mere 28, .45 Colt getting 48.

Hmmmmm, I wonder what a 37mm Hotchkiss does...

Solid does 5dx2 pi++.  Average to the BODY does 66.  Vitals would be 99.  Brain would be 124.

Don't Panic

Remember this and the link there?

Updating things for today's numbers:

There are 95,835 people in Florida with Wu Ping Cough.

That gives an infection fatality rate of a mere 0.177%

Using this as the actual number of infections and assuming it's mirroring yesterday's 14% daily increase...

It will be 43ish days to infect everyone in Florida.

Having An Effect

The rate of increase is getting smaller!

At least in Florida.

Today was just under 14% increase from yesterday.

It's been steadily decreasing for almost two weeks.

A decreasing rate is excellent news, even though that doesn't mean there's fewer new cases than yesterday.

The news is hyper focused on the number of new cases and not looking at the rate.

Potential Good News

h/t Ace and FuzzyGeff.

Possible vaccine patch for Wu Ping Cough.

I see that it builds off research done for SARS and MERS.

Faster please! 

Sunspot

It's dim, but there is a sunspot in this picture.

Very dim, at about 1:30 and 1/5 from the edge.

The 300mm lens actually worked better than the 250mm for a change.

Accruitments

I'm world building and character creating.

I'm making an enlisted mage assigned to a cavalry unit.

It's c. 1899.

He's going to be armed like the normal trooper.

M1896 Krag-Jorgensen carbine.
M1860 light cavalry saber.

And a handgun.  Issue was the Colt M1892 in .38 Long Colt, but with megafauna thumping about, it might be "prudent" to have more puissance and go to an M1873 in .45 Colt.

He should have these things because such troops were issued them.

If I play the character I almost guarantee the saber and pistol will never be used.

I've had lots of characters take the backup guns and never need them.

Heck, I've never had to resort to using a bayonet with the 3e rules.  In 4e, where it's harder to hit, is untested.

Sidearms are nugatory.

Soviet Quality Assurance

Willard bought a case of, mostly, Century International Arms Hot-Shot branded Romanian 5.45x39mm 68gr FMJ.

Some still in its 20 round boxes, some loose.

Among the loose were 9 rounds of 1977 made Soviet State Arsenal, Frunze marked 7N6.

Someone had tried to fire two of them to no avail.

"As long as they pretend to pay us; we will pretend to work!" - Old Soviet Joke

Blogging Pro Tip

When linking to a news article, double check to see if it's behind a paywall by logging out of your subscription there before linking to it.

The link will be useless if it's behind a paywall to anyone not already subscribed...

Actually that link will be useless to subscribers too, because they will have already seen it... because they're subscribed...

It's On The Internet So It Must Be True

This is priceless, and "completely" accurate.

A Different Economic Model For Recovery

What's shut down is nearly completely because the government from up on high closed it.

Maybe for our own good, but also likely unconstitutionally.

How is this economic devastation different from the previous two?

It's not a natural market failure or correction.

It's being imposed from outside the market.

World War 2 was similar with regards to a large portion of the market as everything shifted to a war footing.

When the war ended, we got to spending and pent up demand got met.

The recovery from this could be very swift.

I hope so.

It Adds Up Fast

Assuming the current rate of increase in cases and death holds at the last daily step.

15.31% for infections and 18.82% for deaths.

Starting with 7,773 infections today we end up with 557,953 people infected by May 1st.
Starting with 101 dead people today we end up with 17,824 dead by May 1st.

That's a case fatality rate of 3.19%.  I don't think that's going to be right.

The CFR is bopping around in the low 1.x% range.  The average of all daily CFR for the past 16 days is 1.59% and that gives us a less frightening 8,871 deaths on May 1st.

The rate of increase for new infections is also coming down, so there might not even be half a million people with the disease by then.

So far, the numbers are helping my optimism.

Fingers crossed!

Solar Filter

Went to see if I could get a pic of a sunspot.

The clouds made it impossible, but I still got some neat pictures with the sun-filter attached.

Sol looks positively Jovian here!

Excitement! Adventure!

Half the power is out at my house.

One leg of the 240 is arcing on the pole from our drop to the transformer.

The front of the house is on.  The back is off.  Nothing running on 240 is working.

The Lovely Harvey called Duke and they said they'd have us up by 0700.

Then Marv and I noticed the arcing, she called back and they immediately put her on the emergency list.  Hopefully that means sooner than 0700.

I Wonder Why

Florida is not keeping track of people who have recovered from Wu Ping Cough.

That's very odd since most places are.

Not Quite Re-Inacting

You might be able to tell from the photos that I collect militaria associated with the firearms I also accumulate.

The research is fun, but I also grok more fully the firearm when I can associate it with the gear that's supposed to accompany it.

It's why I have ALICE web gear and PASGT armor.

It's why I have my 1951/62 'Nam gear.

It's why I've started on Spanish-American War stuff.  Though I'm prolly not going to go so far as getting an actual M1892 or 1896 Carbine, I've been gathering an impression of a Rough Rider.

Living near Tampa will do that to a person.

But there's anachronisms that creep in.

The 1894 belt has a saber chape.  I don't think anyone, at least not the enlisted, in the First US Volunteer Cavalry carried their sabers.  It's not clear if they were even issued.

But I think that swords are cool and I want to get a saber hanger and saber to attach to my chape.

The saber hanger is an interesting piece of kit in and of itself.  The design dates back J.E.B Stuart and the shape of the clip and color of the leather are the only differentiation between models going from the 1859 patent (#25,684) until 1904.

I am also surprised at how many original Ames model 1840 (heavy) and 1860 (light) cavalry sabers are out there.  Some in shockingly good condition.  Reproductions vary from garbage to fighting quality.

Some of this is spurred by the world snippet that's been partially revealed by my gaming muse.

All the Ghost Dancing Indians disappeared, virtually over night, the campaign setting has found them in a geographically identical parallel Earth where Neanderthal Man was never supplanted and megafauna still exists.  Magic is well known.

I've long been known to buy the same stuff a character of mine has, just out of fun.  I'm thinking a mage-sergeant attached to a cavalry troop who's going through the gate...

I wonder where I can get custom colored stripes.  Purple would be the branch color of magery, with the branch color of the assigned unit as the border.  Purple with gold for cavalry, purple with blue for infantry, purple with red for artillery and so on.

How Long To A Trend

Florida's cases are no longer doubling every three days.

They are doubling every four for the past two...  That sounds odd to say that way.

The local media has shifted from the doubling rate to the sheer number increase from yesterday.

They're still in freak out mode.

Nine or ten days ago it stopped doubling every other day.

This is good news.

It just doesn't seem like it yet.

Windows

I think I finally thought of a reasonable use for windows in the magazines!

It's to tell how much ammo is in the pouches of the dead guys.

It's not for tracking YOUR ammo, it's for when you're policing up magazines after the battle and expecting more fighting before resupply.

As far as I know, this has never been listed as a reason to have such windows in the side of the magazine.

They're also good for when your wife asks, "does this magazine have bullets in it?"

Compostition

I did a fair amount of research to get my 'Nam issue web gear period correct to my 'Nam era M16A1 recreation.

But how to show it off?

This shows the web gear well, but it's entirely too posed.

This is a more natural "just dump your gear over there" kind of pose, but you can't see much detail of the web gear.

First world problems, am I right?

How Can I Be So Callous

I expressed no concern at the idea that celebrities were being affected by Wu Ping Cough and some were even dying from it.

I was asked, "what would you do if they all died and there were no more TV shows or movies?"

My reply was flippant and we all laughed.

But I just realized just how much of my movie library is cast by corpses.

Children born during the production of many of these films are in danger of dying of old age today.

I guess if it came down to it, I'd be OK with what I already have.

But I also don't expect there to be a vacuum in entertainers for very long.

Another Blip

The infection and death numbers did not double these last three days.

Sometime tomorrow will be four days to double the number of infections.

If this marks a trend, that's great!

If it's just a blip, carry on.

Alarmingly Reassuring

Doing a better job of doing the math that says what I've been saying about it being way more widespread than the number of confirmed infections.

Wow That's Low

There's a survey of scientists that's been run weekly.

They guesstimated that only 12% of infections had actually been reported.

If that's holding...

4,950 infected, 50,528 tested, 60 dead.  CFR 1.21%

Is really:

41,250 infected, 60 dead.  Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) 0.15%

That's something to be optimistic about.

Of course the scientists give varying answers and a very wide range to what percentage of total infections had been recorded.  At least it can't be worse than the number actually found positive from testing people with symptoms.

The real challenge for Florida is keeping people from the third-world (New Orleans and New York City) the fuck out.

Lots of Floridians have, for decades, been perfectly willing to murder New Yorkers for how they behaved living here for four months of the year.  Now it's not just dealing with someone being clueless and rude...

Improvise Adapt Overcome

What happens when the tasting room and the pizza place next door to it change to carry-out only?

Set up in the parking lot!  Sit six feet from each other...

Then set your camera up on a tripod with the timer running!

Also fired off a shot at the moon.

Millennial's Discover They're Useless

Under quarantine millennial feminist realizes shes a useless sack of shit.

Time's Up!

The five day waiting period from that flood of new gun owners has expired and they've all had time to get their purchases home.

There wasn't even enough blood in the streets to see, let alone stain my shoes.

Absent was the popcorn like sound of gunfire as thousands (tens of thousands?) of inexperienced new gunowners fired off negligent discharge after negligent discharge.

There was no influx of emergency room patients suffering from gunshot wounds.

It's like the gun control people lie.

I know!  I, too, was shocked.

Testing

Florida, at present, is not testing anyone who isn't showing symptoms.

Just under 10% of those showing flu like symptoms are showing up positive for Wu Ping Cough.

We're managing to increase the number of tests at about the same rate the disease is spreading?

That doesn't taste right.

I think it's showing the same thing Diamond Princess was showing, most people aren't going to get it and most with it don't show symptoms while spreading it around.

Eventually, they're going to get around to testing everyone who wants tested regardless of symptoms and I think we're going to see a massive surge in positives that will drop the CFR through the deck.

Or it might not, there's a lot of old people with health problems in the state.

This Is A Bit Less Sunny

That's an impressive spike in reported illnesses.

SIGH.

Off By An Order Of Magnitude

Only 10% of cases have been tested?

Not surprised.

But it's, in an odd way, good news.

If there's ten times as many cases, then the case fatality rate is 1/10 too.

That brings it in line with everyday, normal flu and we can get back to our lives and unfuck the economy.

Conduct Unbecoming

Mr Giddings has graced the comments here before.

I'm too hot headed to deliver the kind of rebuttal that Mr Harrell dishes out.

It's long, very long, but the payoff is totally worth it if Mr Giddings has shit on you.

Living In The Future

It just hit me that ripping off 16 frames to get one so-so picture of a bat in flight is something that most people wouldn't have done back in the days of film.

First off, it's half a roll of film.

Second, only the pros had the motor drive to fire rapid fire like that.

Me?  It's only electrons and there's over 11k exposures on that 128gb card.

The battery will die long before I run out of storage.

That's kinda nifty.

It All Makes Sense Now

It's as good an explanation as any I've read.

Time To Relax

I even managed to get some Earth-shine.

The M50 and the EF-S don't communicate auto-focus well at or near infinity.

I also discovered that my camera has a full-auto switch.

I ripped off 16 exposures to get this, sort of, OK pic of one of the local bats flittering around.  Program mode and auto-ISO with manual focusing.

Almost As If They Were Waiting On More Data

More and more scientists who actually deal with things like viruses and epidemics are coming forward and sounding more like my hopeful ass than Gloom and Doom Greek Poet and the panic mongers who're repeating him like he knows what he's talking about.

For example, Stanford biophysicist and Nobel laureate Michael Levitt said this week, “The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be.”
Last week, Levitt emphasized: “[Y]ou need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy and humanity will survive.”

 -- Oxford Epidemiologist: Here’s Why That Doomsday Model Is Likely Way Off

And this:

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms. 

-- New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity

We're Wondering

Marvyn has had a dry cough for a few weeks (months?) now.

It started before the scare and it's been irritating him.

Last night we were hanging out on the back porch and wondering if he's managed to catch a mild case of it.

The cough is his only symptom.

We're old enough, now, to know how our bodies react to the familiar seasonal diseases.

He's saying that he's not feeling all the other things that normally come with a cough and a cold or flu.

Now I'm starting to wonder if what appeared to be an exceptionally bad allergy season isn't a case too.

If my wild speculation that it's been here since December, then having a case shouldn't be surprising.

We're not panicking, we're curious.

We're also not going to waste a test package without more definite symptoms until said packages become more freely available.

With Little Else To Do

Watching Babylon Berlin.

It's quite good, but I need to pay a lot of attention to it in order to follow it.

It's in German, so I am reading most of it.

Interestingly it's also dusting off some synapses laid dormant.

When I left Stuttgart and the Army, I had a working knowledge of German.

About 15% of the dialog I am not reading.  I'll be curious to see if I'm reading it at all in a few episodes.