Since the media is so damn focused on the increase in numbers maybe we should look at the daily rate.
77 on March 14th. I didn't get the daily count before this date.
100 on the 15th. 29.9% increase
149 on the 16th. 49% increase
216 on the 17th. 45% increase
328 on the 18th. 75.9% increase
432 on the 19th. 31.7% increase
563 on the 20th. 30.3% increase
763 on the 21st. 35.5% increase
1,007 on the 22nd. 32% increase
1,227 on the 23rd. 21.8% increase
1,467 on the 24th. 19.6% increase
1,977 on the 25th. 34.8% increase
2,484 on the 26th. 25.6% increase
3,198 on the 27th. 28.7% increase
4,038 on the 28th. 26.3% increase
4,950 on the 29th. 22.6% increase
5,704 on the 30th. 15.2% increase
6,741 on the 31st. 18.2% increase
7,773 on April 1st. 15.3% increase
9,008 on April 2nd. 15.9% increase
10,268 on April 3rd. 14% increase
11,545 on April 4th. 12.4% increase
12,350 on April 5th. 6.97% increase
13,629 on April 6th. 10.36% increase
14,747 on April 7th. 8.2% increase
15,698 on April 8th. 6.45% increase
16,826 on April 9th. 7.19% increase
17,968 on April 10th. 6.79% increase
18,986 on April 11th. 5.67% increase
19,895 on April 12th. 4.79% increase
21,019 on April 13th. 5.65% increase
21,628 on April 14th. 2.9% increase!!!
22,519 on April 15th. 4.12% increase
23,340 on April 16th. 3.65% increase
24,753 on April 17th. 6.05% increase
25,492 on April 18th. 2.99% increase
26,314 on April 19th. 3.22% increase
27,058 on April 20th. 2.83% increase
27,869 on April 21st. 3% increase
28,576 on April 22nd. 2.54% increase
29,648 on April 23rd. 3.75% increase
30,533 on April 24th. 2.99% increase
30,839 on April 25th. 1% increase. There was no evening update today.
31,528 on April 26th. 2.23% increase.
32,183 on April 27th. 1.93% increase.
32,846 on April 28th. 2.2% increase.
33,193 on April 29th. 1.06% increase.
33,690 on April 30th. 1.5% increase
34,728 on May 1st. 3.08 % increase
35,463 on May 2nd. 2.12% increase
36,078 on May 3rd. 1.73% increase
36,879 on May 4th. 2.27% increase
37,439 on May 5th. 1.47% increase
38,002 on May 6th. 1.5% increase
38,828 on May 7th. 2.17% increase
39,199 on May 8th. 0.96% increase
40,001 on May 9th. 2.05% increase
40,596 on May 10th. 1.49% increase
40,982 on May 11th. 0.95% increase
41,923 on May 12th. 2.3% increase
42,402 on May 13th. 1.14% increase
43,210 on May 14th. 1.91% increase
44,138 on May 15th. 2.15% increase
44,811 on May 16th. 1.52% increase
45,588 on May 17th. 1.73% increase
46,442 on May 18th. 1.87% increase
What about deaths?
7 dead on March 17th.
8 dead on the 18th. 14.3% increase
9 dead on the 19th. 12.5% increase
11 dead on the 20th. 22.2% increase
12 dead on the 21st. 9.1% increase
13 dead on the 22nd. 8.3% increase
17 dead on the 23rd. 30.8% increase
20 dead on the 24th. 17.6% increase
23 dead on the 25th. 15% increase
29 dead on the 26th. 26.1% increase
46 dead on the 27th. 58.6% increase
56 dead on the 28th. 21.7% increase
60 dead on the 29th. 7.1% increase
71 dead on the 30th. 18.3% increase
85 dead on the 31st. 19.7% increase
101 dead on April 1st 18.8% increase
144 dead on April 2nd. 42.6% increase
170 dead on April 3rd. 18.1% increase
195 dead on April 4th. 14.7% increase
221 dead on April 5th. 13.3% increase
254 dead on April 6th. 14.93% increase
296 dead on April 7th. 16.54% increase
323 dead on April 8th. 9.12% increase -- Could this mark the peak?
371 dead on April 9th. 14.86% increase -- Guess not the peak yet...
411 dead on April 10th. 12.94% increase
446 dead on April 11th. 6.44% increase -- Going the right direction again.
461 dead on April 12th. 3.36% increase
499 dead on April 13th. 8.24% increase
571 dead on April 14th. 14.43% increase -- Yikes! If the death rate is trailing the new cases rate by two weeks, this is the peak death point. Fingers crossed.
614 dead on April 15th. 7.53% increase
668 dead on April 16th. 8.79% increase
726 dead on April 17th. 8.68% increase
748 dead on April 18th. 3.03% increase
774 dead on April 19th. 3.48% increase
823 dead on April 20th. 6.33% increase
867 dead on April 21st. 5.35% increase
927 dead on April 22nd. 6.92% increase
987 dead on April 23rd. 6.47% increase
1,046 dead on April 24th. 5.98% increase
1,055 dead on April 25th. 0.86% increase. There was no evening update today.
1,074 dead on April 26th. 1.8% increase.
1,088 dead on April 27th. 1.3% increase.
1,171 dead on April 28th. 7.63% increase. Yikes! It had been declining.
1,218 dead on April 29th. 4.01% increase.
1,268 dead on April 30th. 4.11% increase
1,314 dead on May 1st. 3.63% increase
1,364 dead on May 2nd. 3.81% increase
1,379 dead on May 3rd. 1.1% increase
1,399 dead on May 4th. 1.45% increase
1,471 dead on May 5th. 5.15% increase
1,539 dead on May 6th. 4.62% increase
1,600 dead on May 7th. 3.96% increase
1,669 dead on May 8th. 4.31% increase
1,715 dead on May 9th. 2.76% increase
1,721 dead on May 10th. 0.36% increase
1,735 dead on May 11th. 0.81% increase
1,779 dead on May 12th. 2.54% increase
1,827 dead on May 13th. 2.7% increase.
1,875 dead on May 14th. 2.63% increase
1,917 dead on May 15th. 2.24% increase
1,964 dead on May 16th. 2.45% increase
1,973 dead on May 17th. 0.46% increase
1,997 dead on May 18th. 1.22% increase
Deaths are not showing any kind of pattern, but the rate of increase of infections is slowing.
Almost as if the loose restrictions in place the last three weeks have been doing some good.
If the daily percentage increase of new cases keeps falling we're past the corner and well on our way to the peak.
Fingers crossed.
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30 April 2020
As Always
Lose your job?
Can't get Florida's unemployment compensation website to work?
Join the class action suit!
Get $20 a year from now.
Help buy a lawyer a new Bugatti.
Can't get Florida's unemployment compensation website to work?
Join the class action suit!
Get $20 a year from now.
Help buy a lawyer a new Bugatti.
29 April 2020
Thanks Obama?
Mother In Law has a robo-shoulder that was installed at the beginning of the year.
She's been doing the at-home therapy and with the safer at home orders, she has been unable to transition to the out-patient at the clinic physical therapy.
The specialist approved more at home therapy and the therapist to administer it because they don't want her to back slide waiting for the in-house stuff.
Her insurance called today to say it was not approved.
Why?
Because the insurance drone called her primary doctor and asked if he'd approved of the extension and he said that he had no knowledge of it.
Neither her primary care doc or the drone noticed the entirely different doctor's name and signature on the request...
It will be straightened out, but it shouldn't be on us to make sure that it is.
She's been doing the at-home therapy and with the safer at home orders, she has been unable to transition to the out-patient at the clinic physical therapy.
The specialist approved more at home therapy and the therapist to administer it because they don't want her to back slide waiting for the in-house stuff.
Her insurance called today to say it was not approved.
Why?
Because the insurance drone called her primary doctor and asked if he'd approved of the extension and he said that he had no knowledge of it.
Neither her primary care doc or the drone noticed the entirely different doctor's name and signature on the request...
It will be straightened out, but it shouldn't be on us to make sure that it is.
On Those Saber Hangers
I got an M1904 enlisted hanger because it was available and I was enlisted... The officer model has metal "dog leash" clips instead of just being tabbed leather.
It differs from the period correct predecessor in that it's in natural leather instead of russet brown.
That model differs from its predecessor in being russet brown instead of black.
They're all simplifications of the original, and patented, design of JEB Stuart. Yes, THAT JEB Stuart.
There are many different hangers over the years too.
It differs from the period correct predecessor in that it's in natural leather instead of russet brown.
That model differs from its predecessor in being russet brown instead of black.
They're all simplifications of the original, and patented, design of JEB Stuart. Yes, THAT JEB Stuart.
There are many different hangers over the years too.
Siebenundsiebzigstes Regiment der Kavallerie
77th? Historically there were only 15 Cavalry Regiments in the regular US Army in 1899.
In 1882 Congress, while finally restoring funding to the military overall, also authorized the Army to form two additional cavalry regiments of a "new" model abandoning the de facto dragoon model that was already in place. Especially if units were to be going down the spook-hole to find and contact the finest light cavalry ever fielded.
The 16th was formed normally, but a clerk messed up the formation of the 17th.
He was a German immigrant and wrote his 'ones' the way he always had without thinking they resembled 'sevens', but had also just recently been broken of the habit of crossing his 'sevens' to distinguish them from the 'ones'.
By the time the error was caught, materiel had been ordered and manufactured from guidons to hat badges.
It became simpler to just have an out of sequence unit number than to insist on remaking everything to say 17th.
WF Fleetwood contributed greatly to this portion of the world-building.
In 1882 Congress, while finally restoring funding to the military overall, also authorized the Army to form two additional cavalry regiments of a "new" model abandoning the de facto dragoon model that was already in place. Especially if units were to be going down the spook-hole to find and contact the finest light cavalry ever fielded.
The 16th was formed normally, but a clerk messed up the formation of the 17th.
He was a German immigrant and wrote his 'ones' the way he always had without thinking they resembled 'sevens', but had also just recently been broken of the habit of crossing his 'sevens' to distinguish them from the 'ones'.
By the time the error was caught, materiel had been ordered and manufactured from guidons to hat badges.
It became simpler to just have an out of sequence unit number than to insist on remaking everything to say 17th.
WF Fleetwood contributed greatly to this portion of the world-building.
I-Did-Not-Know-That
In the 1890's the Army was actively shortening all of the M1873 Single Action Army revolvers from 7-1/2" barrels to the "artillery" length of 5-1/2".
They were also selling them off as surplus by the case lot.
I had always supposed the longer barrel Cavalry Model and the shorter Artillery Model were both issued at the same time from 1873.
Artillery is actually "altered model".
Sidearms for the 77th Cavalry is going to be a potpourri of choices.
They were also selling them off as surplus by the case lot.
I had always supposed the longer barrel Cavalry Model and the shorter Artillery Model were both issued at the same time from 1873.
Artillery is actually "altered model".
Sidearms for the 77th Cavalry is going to be a potpourri of choices.
Still Need A Saber
It's going on three years since I acquired a Horse Pistol.
My M1894 Mills pattern cavalry belt has a saber chape.
I now have a repop M1904 enlisted saber hanger to clip to that saber chape.
I have no saber.
"To Ebay!" I cry!
It appears that every single M1840 and M1860 saber made by Ames Manufacturing Company has survived to the present day. Nifty, but spendy.
Cold Steel used to make a replica of the M1860 light cavalry saber which is always labeled as a heavy saber. They also made an M1840 heavy saber. Much more affordable and are some of Windlass Cutlery's best work, they will actually work as swords! $230 to $300 depending on the seller.
Then there's the butter knives for $120 or so. They look the part from a distance, but aren't actually weapons.
Donations always, cheerfully, accepted.
This is such a damn conundrum. I also still need a hat! 7-3/8 size if you're feeling generous.
On of the silliest things about this sword is it's one of three I actually know how to use. I know a bit of Kenjitsu and the katana. I got pretty decent with a point-and-edge rapier when a friend decided to do a research project on a fencing manual he'd found in Italy. And thanks to doing a bit of reinacting, I know how to use, not just A cavalry saber, THIS cavalry saber.
I have a basket-hilted claymore, but other than being a fair hand with a cleaver, I claim no particular skill.
GURPS thinks that Melee Weapon - Broadsword covers both the basket hilt and a cavalry saber. Maybe, but I think they're different enough that familiarity penalties should apply.
My M1894 Mills pattern cavalry belt has a saber chape.
I now have a repop M1904 enlisted saber hanger to clip to that saber chape.
I have no saber.
"To Ebay!" I cry!
It appears that every single M1840 and M1860 saber made by Ames Manufacturing Company has survived to the present day. Nifty, but spendy.
Cold Steel used to make a replica of the M1860 light cavalry saber which is always labeled as a heavy saber. They also made an M1840 heavy saber. Much more affordable and are some of Windlass Cutlery's best work, they will actually work as swords! $230 to $300 depending on the seller.
Then there's the butter knives for $120 or so. They look the part from a distance, but aren't actually weapons.
Donations always, cheerfully, accepted.
This is such a damn conundrum. I also still need a hat! 7-3/8 size if you're feeling generous.
On of the silliest things about this sword is it's one of three I actually know how to use. I know a bit of Kenjitsu and the katana. I got pretty decent with a point-and-edge rapier when a friend decided to do a research project on a fencing manual he'd found in Italy. And thanks to doing a bit of reinacting, I know how to use, not just A cavalry saber, THIS cavalry saber.
I have a basket-hilted claymore, but other than being a fair hand with a cleaver, I claim no particular skill.
GURPS thinks that Melee Weapon - Broadsword covers both the basket hilt and a cavalry saber. Maybe, but I think they're different enough that familiarity penalties should apply.
Extrapolation
There have been several studies done that show that far more people have been infected than was previously thought.
One in the UK that said that only 12% of cases were being detected.
Extrapolating to Florida: 309,801people (1.44% of the population) have had it giving an IFR of 0.393%.
San Fransisco came up with antibody test that showed that there were 85 times as many people with the infection than had previously been found.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,821,405 people (13.15% of the population) have it, giving an IFR of 0.043%
New York figured that 13.9% of their population had the disease.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,981,235 people and an IFR of 0.041%
Notice that San Fran and NY have very similar numbers for the percentage who catch it?
17% of the population of Diamond Princess caught it under nearly worst case conditions for avoiding it.
14.6% of Theodore Roosevelt got it.
I'm not going to extrapolate from the ship cases.
There's a similarity to those percentages that makes me think we're way undercounting because we're just testing those who have symptoms.
One in the UK that said that only 12% of cases were being detected.
Extrapolating to Florida: 309,801people (1.44% of the population) have had it giving an IFR of 0.393%.
San Fransisco came up with antibody test that showed that there were 85 times as many people with the infection than had previously been found.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,821,405 people (13.15% of the population) have it, giving an IFR of 0.043%
New York figured that 13.9% of their population had the disease.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,981,235 people and an IFR of 0.041%
Notice that San Fran and NY have very similar numbers for the percentage who catch it?
17% of the population of Diamond Princess caught it under nearly worst case conditions for avoiding it.
14.6% of Theodore Roosevelt got it.
I'm not going to extrapolate from the ship cases.
There's a similarity to those percentages that makes me think we're way undercounting because we're just testing those who have symptoms.
Ten More Chances For Disappointment
Supreme Court has a bunch of cases that they can deny cert to...
Or send back to lower courts to maintain status quo after the supplicants have expended thousands upon thousands of dollars just getting the case that far.
Or send back to lower courts to maintain status quo after the supplicants have expended thousands upon thousands of dollars just getting the case that far.
28 April 2020
Ye Goode Ship Parrot
Did all that work to fix the gun ports and forgot to take a pic of the whole ship last night.
Oversight corrected!
Obligatory Moon
For some reason I really love looking at and taking pictures of the moon in a blue sky.
I took this picture in manual mode and for some reason started looking for the exposure setting...
Duh.
While traipsing through the menus I found a setting titled, "Lens aberration correction."
When you select it, it displays what lens you're using at the time and gives you a list of on/off for:
Peripheral illum corr
Distortion correction
Digital Lens Optimizer
Chromatic aberr corr
Diffraction correction
I need to read up on what these setting do.
I am not yet to the point of shooting RAW.
 | |
| Canon M50, EF 75-300 USM, f/11, 1/100, 300mm, ISO 100, Cropped |
Duh.
While traipsing through the menus I found a setting titled, "Lens aberration correction."
When you select it, it displays what lens you're using at the time and gives you a list of on/off for:
Peripheral illum corr
Distortion correction
Digital Lens Optimizer
Chromatic aberr corr
Diffraction correction
I need to read up on what these setting do.
I am not yet to the point of shooting RAW.
On Tyson's Warning
It's easy enough to find all over the internet right now.
Mr Tyson, when you agonized between staying open and sheltering your employees you made a decision about being a hero.
You declined to be a hero and closed the plants.
Food is an essential industry and you control a gigantic portion of that industry.
And you closed the plants.
If a single CEO can make such a decision that has the impact that Mr Tyson claims it does, then the solution to the problem is clear.
Decentralize food production. Anti-trust gigantic firms like Tyson out of existence.
The money quote from the entire screed: "The government bodies at the national, state, county and city levels must unite in a comprehensive, thoughtful and productive way to allow our team members to work in safety without fear, panic or worry."
That translates to, "we want more regulatory capture."
Mr Tyson, when you agonized between staying open and sheltering your employees you made a decision about being a hero.
You declined to be a hero and closed the plants.
Food is an essential industry and you control a gigantic portion of that industry.
And you closed the plants.
If a single CEO can make such a decision that has the impact that Mr Tyson claims it does, then the solution to the problem is clear.
Decentralize food production. Anti-trust gigantic firms like Tyson out of existence.
The money quote from the entire screed: "The government bodies at the national, state, county and city levels must unite in a comprehensive, thoughtful and productive way to allow our team members to work in safety without fear, panic or worry."
That translates to, "we want more regulatory capture."
Been Bothering Me For 30 Years
I finally moved the gun port hatches on my Lego pirate cutter to be hinged at the top instead of the bottom.
They used to be hinged at the bottom and it really bothered me. Yet, oddly, not enough to actually move them and completely rebuild the gunwale.
They used to be hinged at the bottom and it really bothered me. Yet, oddly, not enough to actually move them and completely rebuild the gunwale.
27 April 2020
Gnomish Flamingo Cavalry
Isn't it just adorable?
Welcome to Florida, where every house has a plastic flamingo and even the garden gnomes are armed.
Crop Sensor Crop Photo
Because the EF 75-300 is a telephoto lens, I took some pics of some birds from our tailgating location.
Unedited:
Cropped:
I am just stunned at how good this camera makes me.
Unedited:
 |
| Canon M50, EF 75-300 USM, f/7.1, 1/500", 300mm, ISO 100 |
I am just stunned at how good this camera makes me.
Learning Is Fun
 |
| Canon M50, EF 75-300mm, f/4.5, 1/50", 105mm, ISO 100 |
Friend, Kimberly, hiding behind her new sloth.
This is near the macro range for the 75-300 USM lens that I am, finally, learning how to use with my camera.
The M50 is so much better than the old SX20 and lots easier to take good pictures with that it was frustrating that this one lens would not do what I wanted.
Well, it was the operator not the equipment and I needed to learn to run it correctly.
The kit lens even shines!
 |
| Canon M50, EF-M 14-45mm, f/5.6, 1/60", 39mm, ISO 100 |
Finger Crossing
Despite the doom predicted, the trend in the daily numbers has been good.
Daily increase in new cases is down.
Percentage of new cases against new tests is down.
Number of people dying is way down.
CFR is inching down too because the rate of increase of new cases is now higher than the rate of increase of new deaths.
Still no idea what the IFR will be, but as more data is collected it's looking more and more like it was out there longer than originally thought and is more widespread than some would have you believe.
It looks like it follows a normal, if bad, flu curve.
We've had worse flu epidemics than Wu Ping Cough; though, on the whole, Wu Ping appears to be a lot nastier per case if you've got some underlying issue than regular flu.
I think it's going to become another of the endemic coronavirii we deal with every year and there will eventually be a shot to go along with our flu shots for it.
In the mean time, let's get the economy running again so that Swift can stop running full page ads pandering for more government control and regulatory capture of meat processing.
Daily increase in new cases is down.
Percentage of new cases against new tests is down.
Number of people dying is way down.
CFR is inching down too because the rate of increase of new cases is now higher than the rate of increase of new deaths.
Still no idea what the IFR will be, but as more data is collected it's looking more and more like it was out there longer than originally thought and is more widespread than some would have you believe.
It looks like it follows a normal, if bad, flu curve.
We've had worse flu epidemics than Wu Ping Cough; though, on the whole, Wu Ping appears to be a lot nastier per case if you've got some underlying issue than regular flu.
I think it's going to become another of the endemic coronavirii we deal with every year and there will eventually be a shot to go along with our flu shots for it.
In the mean time, let's get the economy running again so that Swift can stop running full page ads pandering for more government control and regulatory capture of meat processing.
26 April 2020
More Moon
The EF 75-300 USM has been a vexing lens because I didn't know what I didn't know about photography.
Apparently the answer to aperture size isn't "crank that bitch wide open and leave it there!"
Dialing back the aperture to f/11 and using automatic exposure bracketing, I finally got a good pic of the moon!
I think I would prefer a little brighter next time, but this is literally the first moon picture with this lens that didn't have some sort of chromatic issue.
It's exciting to learn!
In general, though I'm taking better pictures with the EF-S 55-250.
Apparently the answer to aperture size isn't "crank that bitch wide open and leave it there!"
Dialing back the aperture to f/11 and using automatic exposure bracketing, I finally got a good pic of the moon!
 |
| Cropped. Canon EOS M50, EF 75-300, f/11, 1/15", 300mm, ISO 100 |
It's exciting to learn!
In general, though I'm taking better pictures with the EF-S 55-250.
 |
| Canon EOS M50, EF-S 55-250, f/11, 1/15", 250mm, ISO 100 |
Research
To get a handle on the history I'm alternating... I'm reading history.
I've got the high points, and high points are all that will show in the stories/campaign, but the supporting strata needs to be known.
I just read about something I'd never heard of.
The Battle of Beecher Island.
It occurs to me that if Roman Nose/Woqini had followed the strict instructions of his war bonnet, he'd have won that battle.
The battle is also illustrative of the power of leadership on a group.
Major Forsyth, despite being rather severely injured, remained level headed and in command. Even performing surgery on his own leg to remain in the fight.
Woqini is an example of what happens when an "unstoppable" leader gets snuffed. The initiative shifts and morale collapses.
By the way, to the "white man is the cause of all evil to the Indians" crowd: The group he was in was part of a large movement to reject treaties and peace with the white man and keep fighting regardless.
These splinter groups are part of what made it impossible for peace to settle in and largely resulted in reasonable requests and demands from Indian Affairs to be rejected and underfunded... which resulted in more splintering and resistance to the treaty... which lead to more cracking down from the Army... which led to...
It was akin to pilot induced oscillation.
I've got the high points, and high points are all that will show in the stories/campaign, but the supporting strata needs to be known.
I just read about something I'd never heard of.
The Battle of Beecher Island.
It occurs to me that if Roman Nose/Woqini had followed the strict instructions of his war bonnet, he'd have won that battle.
The battle is also illustrative of the power of leadership on a group.
Major Forsyth, despite being rather severely injured, remained level headed and in command. Even performing surgery on his own leg to remain in the fight.
Woqini is an example of what happens when an "unstoppable" leader gets snuffed. The initiative shifts and morale collapses.
By the way, to the "white man is the cause of all evil to the Indians" crowd: The group he was in was part of a large movement to reject treaties and peace with the white man and keep fighting regardless.
These splinter groups are part of what made it impossible for peace to settle in and largely resulted in reasonable requests and demands from Indian Affairs to be rejected and underfunded... which resulted in more splintering and resistance to the treaty... which lead to more cracking down from the Army... which led to...
It was akin to pilot induced oscillation.
25 April 2020
Core Tenet
If you're going to call yourself a scientist, something you're going to have to do is change your hypothesis when the data changes.
I've seen a lot of doubling and trebling down on conclusions from more than one place when the data is saying that conclusion is no longer tenable.
The saddest part is it's coming form the same people who would never let gun control lies stand in the face of refuting data.
Watching them become what they beheld and despised has been painful to watch.
I've seen a lot of doubling and trebling down on conclusions from more than one place when the data is saying that conclusion is no longer tenable.
The saddest part is it's coming form the same people who would never let gun control lies stand in the face of refuting data.
Watching them become what they beheld and despised has been painful to watch.
I Should Write It Down
Because I tend to quietly remove people from the sidebar rather than performing the ritual and ceremonial removal...
I tend to forget why I've done it after a time.
Some have reappeared without fanfare because, while I remember why I clipped them, I've decided to let bygones be bygones.
Most of the time, I'm just sick of some recurring thread or theme.
Occasionally I'll check back and see that, yup, they're still on about that.
I tend to forget why I've done it after a time.
Some have reappeared without fanfare because, while I remember why I clipped them, I've decided to let bygones be bygones.
Most of the time, I'm just sick of some recurring thread or theme.
Occasionally I'll check back and see that, yup, they're still on about that.
Minority Opinion
In my almost 8-year long quest to make my .38 Super Government Model the gun I wanted instead of the gun Colt made...
I wonder why I had to.
The parts were readily available (except for the mainspring housing) and simple to install.
I'm not sure I want to do another historical research project to figure out why the changes made to the M1911 that make it an M1911A1 were abandoned by most every 1911 maker but the cheapest.
After those changes were made in 1926, Colt stopped offering the old version on their commercial models too.
I suspect, but do not know, that some contrary cuss of a gun writer extolled the virtues of the flat mainspring housing with checkering you can grate a potato with and a trigger that's even longer than the original.
Extolled them well enough to cause customer demand to shift and forcing the rest of us to fix our guns.
Based on the gun he carried, it wasn't Jeff Cooper. But that doesn't narrow down the field much.
I wonder why I had to.
The parts were readily available (except for the mainspring housing) and simple to install.
I'm not sure I want to do another historical research project to figure out why the changes made to the M1911 that make it an M1911A1 were abandoned by most every 1911 maker but the cheapest.
After those changes were made in 1926, Colt stopped offering the old version on their commercial models too.
I suspect, but do not know, that some contrary cuss of a gun writer extolled the virtues of the flat mainspring housing with checkering you can grate a potato with and a trigger that's even longer than the original.
Extolled them well enough to cause customer demand to shift and forcing the rest of us to fix our guns.
Based on the gun he carried, it wasn't Jeff Cooper. But that doesn't narrow down the field much.
Late Update
Florida's arcgis repository of Wu Ping Cough numbers normally updates at 1130 and 1830.
It has not had it's evening update yet.
If the morning numbers stand, though, we're in a freefall for new cases and new deaths.
That'd be wonderful news.
Fingers crossed.
I am as shocked as anyone that I'm turning out to be the optimist around here.
It has not had it's evening update yet.
If the morning numbers stand, though, we're in a freefall for new cases and new deaths.
That'd be wonderful news.
Fingers crossed.
I am as shocked as anyone that I'm turning out to be the optimist around here.
Took A Peek
Went to our tragic Greek poet's place.
To sum up his argument against several recent reports that the virus' antibodies have been found more widely distributed than previously reported is:
I don't believe this, nyah nyah.
It must be because these reports tend to agree with the total infection numbers from closed systems like Diamond Princess and Theodore Roosevelt.
I recall him dismissing Diamond Princess as useless data once, so he's committed to rejecting data that he doesn't like.
Again.
Over and over.
It's a pattern.
To sum up his argument against several recent reports that the virus' antibodies have been found more widely distributed than previously reported is:
I don't believe this, nyah nyah.
It must be because these reports tend to agree with the total infection numbers from closed systems like Diamond Princess and Theodore Roosevelt.
I recall him dismissing Diamond Princess as useless data once, so he's committed to rejecting data that he doesn't like.
Again.
Over and over.
It's a pattern.
Still Available!
Way back, four years ago I made this post about gaudy Vietnam commemorative 1911's.
Vietnam Tribute to Valor (limited run of 1,000): Still available at $2,195 per gun.
Vietnam War Golden Anniversary Tribute (limited run of 250): Still available at $3,295 per gun.
Get yours while supplies last?
Uh...
Somewhere a Mexican drug lord is thinking, "if only they were in .38 Super."
Vietnam Tribute to Valor (limited run of 1,000): Still available at $2,195 per gun.
Vietnam War Golden Anniversary Tribute (limited run of 250): Still available at $3,295 per gun.
Get yours while supplies last?
Uh...
Somewhere a Mexican drug lord is thinking, "if only they were in .38 Super."
Sabers And... Snippet 4
He'd said he'd had a vision.
Their not-a-chief-but-very-much-a-repected-leader Standing Bear had explained that he'd had a vision that The Black Hills wasn't the sacred Black Hills and that he was destined to find them.
And here we sit, in a tent smoking from the same pipe at the border of the sacred lands of The Black Hills in an Earth that isn't Earth.
While we talked, I realized several things. I also noticed that I'd came to some conclusions and made decisions which would likely not be popular back home. Colonel Waller might not even be on board.
Assuming we had any right to be here at all, I think that this time the Indian's claims would be honored on pain of death to any white man who violated them. Level enforcement had been missing from all of the other treaties, regardless of what the text read.
Such enforcement was needed, because a wave of white people was surely to follow our expedition.
Of course, they'd also have to contend with what Standing Bear had called "the little people" who weren't very little. Stoop shouldered and stocky. Blonde hair, blue eyes and skin as white as mine.
They were everywhere in this world.
Seldom in groups larger than a family, but you were hardly ever out of sight of one of these groups.
Sgt. Harrington thinks they're pacing us and reporting in.
Their not-a-chief-but-very-much-a-repected-leader Standing Bear had explained that he'd had a vision that The Black Hills wasn't the sacred Black Hills and that he was destined to find them.
And here we sit, in a tent smoking from the same pipe at the border of the sacred lands of The Black Hills in an Earth that isn't Earth.
While we talked, I realized several things. I also noticed that I'd came to some conclusions and made decisions which would likely not be popular back home. Colonel Waller might not even be on board.
Assuming we had any right to be here at all, I think that this time the Indian's claims would be honored on pain of death to any white man who violated them. Level enforcement had been missing from all of the other treaties, regardless of what the text read.
Such enforcement was needed, because a wave of white people was surely to follow our expedition.
Of course, they'd also have to contend with what Standing Bear had called "the little people" who weren't very little. Stoop shouldered and stocky. Blonde hair, blue eyes and skin as white as mine.
They were everywhere in this world.
Seldom in groups larger than a family, but you were hardly ever out of sight of one of these groups.
Sgt. Harrington thinks they're pacing us and reporting in.
24 April 2020
WAVES!
Hello everyone linking in from Aesop's place!
I can seeeeeee you...
I least I can see where you're entering from.
I don't go there, so I have no idea what he's been saying about me and my little corner of the internet, but it must have been good for you to come and check the place out.
Welcome!
I can seeeeeee you...
I least I can see where you're entering from.
I don't go there, so I have no idea what he's been saying about me and my little corner of the internet, but it must have been good for you to come and check the place out.
Welcome!
At Last My Hand Is Whole
My .38 Super Government Model now has a lanyard loop and a proper, metal, mainspring housing!
It's an Evolution Gun Works GI Arched Mainspring Housing Blue w/Lanyard Loop Holes p/n 11441.
Not just metal, but milled bar-stock instead of cast.
Cast would have meant the ring would also be cast, and those are, reportedly, fragile.
This ring is pinned, as it should be.
Now I can open bottles!
There's a down-side, the loaded weight went from 2.6 to 2.8 pounds.
How Can You Be Trespassing On Property You Own?
Woman arrested for trespassing in closed park.
Cold Fury has more on this.
In case you were curious if your local Officer Friendly would enforce unconstitutional laws...
Well, there's your answer.
As Hognose often warned, "The police always enforce the edicts of tyranny."
He never mentioned any exceptions, despite listing countless times where the police seamlessly changed allegiance to the new order and cracked down on the populations they'd previously served.
Cold Fury has more on this.
In case you were curious if your local Officer Friendly would enforce unconstitutional laws...
Well, there's your answer.
As Hognose often warned, "The police always enforce the edicts of tyranny."
He never mentioned any exceptions, despite listing countless times where the police seamlessly changed allegiance to the new order and cracked down on the populations they'd previously served.
Speaking Of Old Games
Starting a long tradition of owning a game, making worlds and characters, then never actually playing...
In 1980 I had a copy of Melee and Wizard. These later became The Fantasy Trip, which I also bought.
Again, never played.
Advanced Dungeons and Dragons were what you played if you wanted players for your world.
We never advanced past hack-n-slash with AD&D so world development was very scanty back inmiddle junior-high school.
By the time anyone had any interest in me being the GM, I was introducing them to Traveller.
In 1980 I had a copy of Melee and Wizard. These later became The Fantasy Trip, which I also bought.
Again, never played.
Advanced Dungeons and Dragons were what you played if you wanted players for your world.
We never advanced past hack-n-slash with AD&D so world development was very scanty back in
By the time anyone had any interest in me being the GM, I was introducing them to Traveller.
Man To Man
Thirty-five years ago, more or less, FuzzyGeff tried to talk me into playing a new game he'd bought.
Steve Jackson Games' Man to Man.
It's the combat system for GURPS 1e.
I was decidedly not interested, despite his mention that it was a precursor to a new role playing game.
When GURPS came out I was also, decidedly, not interested.
It took him a good long time to convince me to give it a try.
But I did and that's all I play anymore.
Not having to learn a new game when making a new world is liberating.
Try playing post-apocalypse with D&D 5e, for example.
I've used GURPS to convert Twilight: 2000 and Traveller. Successfully. Top Secret wasn't even a challenge, no actual conversion was needed.
Prior to 4e, the only specialized game which failed GURPSification was Champions. That's kind of ironic, considering that the point based Champions was one of the inspirations for GURPS.
Steve Jackson Games' Man to Man.
It's the combat system for GURPS 1e.
I was decidedly not interested, despite his mention that it was a precursor to a new role playing game.
When GURPS came out I was also, decidedly, not interested.
It took him a good long time to convince me to give it a try.
But I did and that's all I play anymore.
Not having to learn a new game when making a new world is liberating.
Try playing post-apocalypse with D&D 5e, for example.
I've used GURPS to convert Twilight: 2000 and Traveller. Successfully. Top Secret wasn't even a challenge, no actual conversion was needed.
Prior to 4e, the only specialized game which failed GURPSification was Champions. That's kind of ironic, considering that the point based Champions was one of the inspirations for GURPS.
23 April 2020
Still Sciencing
Infection rate in New York might be as high as 13.9% statewide.
What's really interesting about this is how it coincides with Princess Diamond and Teddy Roosevelt.
And anotherfact claim of Aesop is refuted. "If the rosiest wild estimates of unvetted tests and peer-unreviewed
surveys, using statistically invalid samples are correct, SARS-CoV-2 has
penetrated, at most, about 4% of the U.S. population."
A 13.9% infection rate applied to the population of Florida gives an infection fatality rate of 0.031% from yesterday's fatalities.
Machts Nichts!
Definitely not worth the economic impact.
Also, the CFR is a nearly meaningless statistic. Someone who leads with that number is sowing panic.
Remember, H5N1 has a 52% CFR.
Update:
If we take the 21.2% of NYC being infected as a given and a population of 8,398,748 that means that 1,780,535 people are infected.
10,290 are dead and confirmed to have had the infection, 5,121 dead were probably infected.
Adding them together gives a worse number than just confirmed cases, so we're using that.
141,754 have been tested and reported to have the disease, an infection rate of just 1.69%
That gives a CFR of 10.87% That's a terrifying number!
With an infection rate of 21.2%, however, the IFR is 0.87%. Much higher than ROSF, but not terrifying.
Update 2:
It's also been reported that NYFC is padding their death numbers and while many have died with the infection, it's not clear how many have died from the infection. Like Italy.
What's really interesting about this is how it coincides with Princess Diamond and Teddy Roosevelt.
And another
A 13.9% infection rate applied to the population of Florida gives an infection fatality rate of 0.031% from yesterday's fatalities.
Machts Nichts!
Definitely not worth the economic impact.
Also, the CFR is a nearly meaningless statistic. Someone who leads with that number is sowing panic.
Remember, H5N1 has a 52% CFR.
Update:
If we take the 21.2% of NYC being infected as a given and a population of 8,398,748 that means that 1,780,535 people are infected.
10,290 are dead and confirmed to have had the infection, 5,121 dead were probably infected.
Adding them together gives a worse number than just confirmed cases, so we're using that.
141,754 have been tested and reported to have the disease, an infection rate of just 1.69%
That gives a CFR of 10.87% That's a terrifying number!
With an infection rate of 21.2%, however, the IFR is 0.87%. Much higher than ROSF, but not terrifying.
Update 2:
It's also been reported that NYFC is padding their death numbers and while many have died with the infection, it's not clear how many have died from the infection. Like Italy.
Second Blog?
Borepatch's place is now Aesop's second home.
Pity.
Borepatch, those weren't ad hominem attacks. You should recheck the definition.
Aesop makes claims and insists his claims are data. Very rarely does he source that data and brooks no dissent to his claims.
He's been polite at your place, but his MO, as commented on in the post you think contains ad hominem attacks is to insult and ridicule people who disagree with his position.
He's done it a for a long time, and most of us remember from Hognose's place.
But you've provided him a safe space to post his claims and thanks to redefinition of ad hominem, we know to not bother debating him where you claim you want to see civil debate.
Pity.
Borepatch, those weren't ad hominem attacks. You should recheck the definition.
Aesop makes claims and insists his claims are data. Very rarely does he source that data and brooks no dissent to his claims.
He's been polite at your place, but his MO, as commented on in the post you think contains ad hominem attacks is to insult and ridicule people who disagree with his position.
He's done it a for a long time, and most of us remember from Hognose's place.
But you've provided him a safe space to post his claims and thanks to redefinition of ad hominem, we know to not bother debating him where you claim you want to see civil debate.
22 April 2020
Custer Died In Bed
Actually, General Custer is a spry 59 when my stories get rolling.
In the Sabers and... universe The Battle of Little Big Horn / Greasy Grass never took place because of the creation of the Indian Gates.
It also means that near a decade of Indian Wars didn't happen either, except for the Commanche.
It's got me wondering.
In our 1899 there were just enough Krags to go around and replace the Trapdoors.
With just the Commanche to sit on, funding for the Army would likely be even lower than it was historically.
Rifles would get some priority, but handguns?
The constabulary cavalry of the west would probably still be issued M1873 Single Action Army and M1875 Schofield revolvers with just a scattering of the M1892 .38's.
Definitely have potato diggers though!
I'm still researching what the unit composition should be and what kind of artillery accompanies a full cavalry regiment in 1899.
Sadly, for Willard, I might have to use a different number for the regiment than his preferred 77th.
There were only 15 cavalry regiments back then.
This also skewers my idea of using the 34th or 81st as my unit (because I'd served in both).
In the Sabers and... universe The Battle of Little Big Horn / Greasy Grass never took place because of the creation of the Indian Gates.
It also means that near a decade of Indian Wars didn't happen either, except for the Commanche.
It's got me wondering.
In our 1899 there were just enough Krags to go around and replace the Trapdoors.
With just the Commanche to sit on, funding for the Army would likely be even lower than it was historically.
Rifles would get some priority, but handguns?
The constabulary cavalry of the west would probably still be issued M1873 Single Action Army and M1875 Schofield revolvers with just a scattering of the M1892 .38's.
Definitely have potato diggers though!
I'm still researching what the unit composition should be and what kind of artillery accompanies a full cavalry regiment in 1899.
Sadly, for Willard, I might have to use a different number for the regiment than his preferred 77th.
There were only 15 cavalry regiments back then.
This also skewers my idea of using the 34th or 81st as my unit (because I'd served in both).
The Quest Is Over!
I finally found a blued, serrated 1911 mainspring housing with a lanyard loop which wasn't eye-wateringly expensive or cast.
It's bothered me for years that my .38 Super couldn't open beer bottles.
It's bothered me for years that my .38 Super couldn't open beer bottles.
Sabers And... Snippet 3
July 20, 1899
It was a conundrum.
The red-legs had surveyed the area and we were still in the Dakota Territories, barely a mile from the fort which was clearly not there.
Earth but not Earth?
It was lieutenant Wilson of E-Troop, fresh from The Point who asked the question once we realized we were still where we were. He's a good kid, but he's got a lot to learn about keeping his mouth shut when someone outside the family was listening.
"If we'd ceded, according to the treaty, all the land from here to here and there to there and THIS place had land from here to here and there to there and the 'escaped' Indians where living within the confines of that space... Aren't they obeying the treaty?"
If he hadn't said it where Mrs. Fitzhugh could hear it, this mission would have remained a scouting mission for the gathering of intelligence and information.
But what Mrs. Fitzhugh hears, Mr. Fitzhugh hears, and Mr, Fitzhugh being our representative agent from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, is a man who can make "requests" of the commanding officer which have career implications.
One ignores such requests at ones peril.
Now it was H-Troop's job to find an Indian encampment and ask them, pretty please, what they thought they were doing here and if they believed everyone was obeying the treaty.
That made it my problem.
I also note that that ring knocking son of a bitch who started this entire mess is not in the troop given the task.
There's no Justice.
It was a conundrum.
The red-legs had surveyed the area and we were still in the Dakota Territories, barely a mile from the fort which was clearly not there.
Earth but not Earth?
It was lieutenant Wilson of E-Troop, fresh from The Point who asked the question once we realized we were still where we were. He's a good kid, but he's got a lot to learn about keeping his mouth shut when someone outside the family was listening.
"If we'd ceded, according to the treaty, all the land from here to here and there to there and THIS place had land from here to here and there to there and the 'escaped' Indians where living within the confines of that space... Aren't they obeying the treaty?"
If he hadn't said it where Mrs. Fitzhugh could hear it, this mission would have remained a scouting mission for the gathering of intelligence and information.
But what Mrs. Fitzhugh hears, Mr. Fitzhugh hears, and Mr, Fitzhugh being our representative agent from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, is a man who can make "requests" of the commanding officer which have career implications.
One ignores such requests at ones peril.
Now it was H-Troop's job to find an Indian encampment and ask them, pretty please, what they thought they were doing here and if they believed everyone was obeying the treaty.
That made it my problem.
I also note that that ring knocking son of a bitch who started this entire mess is not in the troop given the task.
There's no Justice.
21 April 2020
The Data Is Improving
Two rounds of testing trying to find out how many people have been infected are showing much larger populations have antibodies than originally thought.
We're getting closer to being able to have a reasonable guess at the infection fatality rate and it appears that it's going to be lower than ROSF.
That would mean that there's something special about NYFC that makes it especially worse there.
We're getting closer to being able to have a reasonable guess at the infection fatality rate and it appears that it's going to be lower than ROSF.
That would mean that there's something special about NYFC that makes it especially worse there.
Another Petri Dish
USS Theodore Roosevelt has dumped some Wu Ping Cough numbers on us.
Allegedly. I read this on the internet, so it must be true. You can't lie on a forum, right?
But if it's true... it's premature.
4,800 crewwith 100% testing.
700 or 14.6% positive.
7 hospitalized, 2 needing ICU
1 dead.
That's an CFR of 0.15% IFR still unknown.
I will try to find another source for these numbers, take them as optimistic rumors for now.
According to UPI the entire crew has not yet been tested.
Allegedly. I read this on the internet, so it must be true. You can't lie on a forum, right?
But if it's true... it's premature.
4,800 crew
700 or 14.6% positive.
7 hospitalized, 2 needing ICU
1 dead.
That's an CFR of 0.15% IFR still unknown.
I will try to find another source for these numbers, take them as optimistic rumors for now.
According to UPI the entire crew has not yet been tested.
20 April 2020
Didn't Make It To The End Of The Movie Did You Patton?
First off, you ignorant dancing monkey, Ms Frank was found by the National Socialists and died in a concentration camp.
Secondly, she was hiding in that attic, with her entire family, in the vain hope of avoiding that death in a concentration camp.
Third, the people she was hiding from, The National Socialist, were part of a foreign government who'd invaded her country.
So, Dumbass, what parallel are you trying to draw here?
Because on the face of it, it looks like you're saying that we've no reason to be afraid and shouldn't be hiding. Our nation has not been conquered by a hostile foreign power, and they're not actively hunting us down and sending us to death camps.
Since there's no reason to be hiding from National Socialists in our attics, then there's no good goddamned reason for Fuddruckers to be closed.
Is that what your ignorant dancing monkey ass meant to say?
Or is the reason that people are protesting is because they, unlike an ignorant dancing monkey, can see the shape of the curve, the balance of their bank account and judge the risk of reopening businesses to be worth it.
It was the government who shut down their livelihood, so it is to the government one should address for redress.
If only there was something in the Bill of Rights about this... Oh wait.
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