15 December 2014

New Machine Guns

The Firearms Blog had a bit of a spat over someone using my unerring ability to say what they wanted to say in exactly the wrong way for their meaning to be conveyed.  They apologized for not seeing how it would be taken.

A sore spot among many people who can't afford a pre-86 MG is the feeling that those who can are actively working to prevent anything which would post-86 guns to be "freely" transferred.

As bumbling as NFATCA was over what leads to rulemaking 41P...  Jury's still out.

But what would happen to the value of those pre-86 guns?

On a lot of them, the value is going to plummet.  No way around it.

Guns made from parts kits will probably be affected.  They're not original at all.  No real provenance.

Completely original guns are likely to remain valuable as will guns with famous provenance.

I think the guns most affected will be the AR15.  I've recently seen conversions from semi-auto going for $25,000.  Such a gun is not really any more valuable than an ordinary semi-automatic AR if you can do your own Form 1; perhaps a few hundred more just in the saved effort.

$25,000 to (maybe) $2,000 is a heck of a hit.

The $16,000 for a registered drop in auto-sear will evaporate like a fart in the wind.  There isn't but $100 worth of professional machining in one of those; and you don't even need that level of skill to crank one out.

The Lightning Link will take a hit like that too.

People who bought MGs as investments probably are working against any change to the status quo that increases the supply of transferables.  People who bought MGs because COOL! are, I think, a lot more likely to be willing to take the depreciation because more MGs means more COOL! for them as well as everyone else.

There's something we can do to test the devaluation hypothesis.  Amnesty.  There's bound to be guns made right before an amnesty that are made just for such an event that don't exist now.  It'd be a good gauge of the pent-up demand as well.

Kinda related, I wonder if a case could be made that all pre-86 MG's are Curio and Relic.

Because...

Any other firearms that derive a substantial part of their monetary value from the fact that they are novel, rare, bizarre, or because of their association with some historical figure, period, or event. Proof of qualification of a particular firearm under this category requires evidence of present value and evidence that like firearms are not available except as collector's items, or that the value of like firearms available in ordinary commercial channels is substantially less.


Compare the price of a transferrable M16A2 to what a police force would pay.

5 comments:

  1. "People who bought MGs as investments probably are working against any change to the status quo..."

    You'd think that during all the years I spent working with Title II stuff I'd have met one of these unicorns.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I've met two, so they're not completely made up.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I remember saying once that I had no credibility... http://mcthag.blogspot.com/2014/11/pity-party.html#comment-form

    CONFIRMED!

    ReplyDelete
  4. I didn't say you had no credibility, I said I'd never met one. That you took that as me somehow saying you had no credibility is all on you, because that is not what I said.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, why react when you can OVERreact...

      It's just I've managed to meet several people who bought cars and guns and do what they can to make sure that their bought just for the investment value items don't deflate. I took your reply as saying that they don't exist. Bet if you'd said the exact same words in person I'd have not taken it wrong too. I hate the intertubes sometimes.

      I disliked them from nearly the get go because they have no love, no passion, for their collections.

      Delete

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