Downgraded

Colorado State University has reduced their prediction from April.

They now say:

9 Named Storms

4 Hurricanes

1 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)

This is down from:

13 Named Storms

6 Hurricanes

2 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)

 

Be Veeewy Veeewy Quiet

Today is the opening day of hurricane season.

Make sure your tags are in order. 

Just to make sure we can find the predictions later:

 NHC says:

8-14 Named Storms (Average is 14)

3-6 Hurricanes (Average is 7)

1-3 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+) (Average is 3)

45-115% median Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

The Weather Company says:

12 Named Storms

6 Hurricanes

2 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)

Colorado State University says:

13 Named Storms

6 Hurricanes

2 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)

This Is The End

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is over.

It's been effectively over for some time as the weather cooperated and didn't spin up the normal Caribbean and Gulf storms in the latter half of the season.

The December 2024 prediction was 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes (3 being major).

The June 2025 prediction, as the season was starting was 17-9-4.

What we got was 13-5-4; and just one that was really bad.

Fish storms were the norm this year.

I'll take it. 

Why No News

A cartuber I occasionally watch has flown his own plane down to Jamaica with relief stuff and he's saying the West end of the island is just gone.

He's confused that it's not in the news here at all.

So am I.

Especially after all the coverage that Haiti gets whenever their unprepared asses get nailed with even a small storm. 

One Year

It is one year since Hurricane Helene hit us and we spent a whole day without power.

We got off so very light.

I Don't Mind Seeing This

 

Not a bad picture going into the second week of September.

The Spirit Of Florida

Here's a petition asking Publix to bring back their hurricane cakes.

They discontinued them in 2022 after they became "controversial."

You know, some Karen felt bad about someone getting hit with a hurricane while the rest of us had a hurricane party.

It's really not an exaggeration that Floridians don't get motivated about a storm until it hits Cat 3.

Beer and Ice is on the preps list for most of the people I know.

You have to maintain a sense of humor about the stalking turtle.

Retired Names

The two storms that went over my house last year have had their names retired.

That's a first for me.

Helene and Milton will not be used again.

I Like This Mode

Nope, no Tropical Weather to see here.

Michael Mann failed to get his predicted number of storms too.  I've lost track of the number of predictions he's made where he's been flat wrong.

I can't figure out why he's still considered credible.

Has he ever predicted something that happened?

Running Out Of Time

In April, my "favorite" climate "scientist," Michael Mann, predicted 33.1 ± 5.8 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The total stands at 18.

We have just under six hours to get to the low end of 27.3 storms before hurricane season ends.

That's about a storm and a half per hour.

This prediction was roundly mocked by several of the local meteorologists too.  They were saying 16-20.

Weathermen 1.

Climate scientists 0.

Better Make A FEMA Claim

Upon further review, we did not emerge from Hurricane Helene completely unscathed.

One of the downspouts failed, allowing the gutter to spew straight down.

We put a garbage can under it and it filled in about ten minutes from Milton.

I dropped the princely sum of $25 for a new section of spout and some straps to secure it to the wall.

As a bonus, it's finally being directed away from the patio instead onto it.  We should have fixed that years ago.

After After Action

We're all put back together after Milton at Casa de McThag.

We even got our Halloween decorations up!

I felt bad that across the street is without power still while we have our garish lights on...

That bad feeling evaporated when several of our neighbors in the darkened section stopped by to tell us how relieved they were that we'd gotten our stuff out.

It turns out we're a local attraction that they look forward to seeing each year!

I am happy to be part of the healing with our display of normalcy.

Now The Floods

Most of the rain fell on places upstream from us, and it's flowing, or should I say overflowing, the river a couple miles from here.

It's crested already.

The roads that are closed every time it gets to this stage of flooding are closed.

We're well away from the flood area and not worried at all.

We Have POWER!

We had a generator this time, so the return of the mains was a smaller thing than it might have been.

In fact, I was eating a waffle that The Lovely Harvey had just made... with an electric waffle iron, when the power returned.

Being the cynical Floridians we are, we waited nearly 20 minutes after the power came back before we shut the gennie down and plugged our stuff back into the wall.

Adding to the preparedness:  The in-laws have a generator now!  It was hard to find gas for it, but Home Depot had generators for sale and my father-in-law pounced on it.

He'd been borrowing Marvyn's spare Honda generator to that point and it felt nice to end that imposition.

He got to enjoy his new generator a whole hour before the mains were restored...

The new talismans list is to have ice in every cooler and a generator at every home.

Marv has two Hondas.  We have our Champion.  In-Laws have a... forgot the brand.

We're ready!

After Action Report

We've survived!

Power is still out, the trees the crew from Texas half assed cleared for Helene finished the job they'd started. 

The roof looks fine.  No leaks. 

The cute Halloween flags we hung on the fence gates provided enough wind resistance for then to force the latches. 

All in all, we came out fine.

Generator is making coffee and charging batteries as I swipe.  Cell phone connectivity only.

Glad It's Not Me Sad It's Them?

Go hit someone else!

Ooooooh!  I hope they're OK.

Sitting here worrying about the people whom are getting the direct hit from my hoping that the storm wouldn't hit ME head on where I am...

Florida is strange that way.

Home And Looter Defence

Brenda and Valentine are the hurricane defense pair.

Brenda is handier, but Valentine has that extra couple feet per second and 5x magnification.

One is better at looters, the other better in the immediate AO.

I'm set for what comes, even if it's not as bad as originally feared in my AO.

Of course, if REAL looting happens, if I can see it, I can pretty much hit it.

Peace be upon Jack O'Connor.

A Talisman

In addition to me getting ice this time, Marv has made a plate of cookies.

It's worked before...

Optimism Increasing

At this moment, I am outside the cone of uncertainty!  Just barely.

With the track 36 miles farther north, peak gusts were expected to just get to 62 miles an hour, which we've survived before.

Still might be hard on trees and power lines, but I am thinking we're prepared for that.

Bonus!  We're expecting overnight lows in the high 60's afterwards.  That will make not having power a lot more survivable.

Well South

 

If this track holds it's as good as the news can get with this storm.  It keeps the surge out of the mouth of Tampa Bay.

It's bad news for people that have had too much of it lately, especially the Port Charlotte area.

Oddly, being on the North side of this storm is going to be worse for the winds thanks to the expected wrap around of shear and dry air causing disorganization to the South side of the storm.

We've been ordered to evacuate.  But to where?  With what?

I hate to break it to the local authorities, but we don't have the means to live anywhere but where we live.  We don't have the funds to plan a vacation let alone take an unplanned one!

But I know something the local disaster officials don't seem to.  The lay of the land.

We're not in a flood zone.  Our worry is wind.  We're not looking to get wind worse than Irma, which we survived just fine here, so...

The evacuation zones in Florida are clearly broken.  There's people who need to get out because of storm surge.  There's people who don't and they're both in zone A.

There's been ample evidence that the state and counties are not following their own rules for defining the zones thanks to regulatory capture from the insurance industry.

These zones have become politically defined not practically.

So people who SHOULD evacuate don't because they can see someone in the same zone who will be OK not evacuating.