Flechette Math

The M494 is a fletchette round that bursts like a shrapnel round making a cone of death.

A person's silhouette is approximately a square yard.

At 50 yards, with it set for muzzle effect, the cone of fletchettes has expanded to a circle of about 176.7 square yards.

So one would expect that person to absorb 1/177th of the 5,000 little bees.

That's around 28 fletchettes.

Many fewer than I expected!

Skill 11, 3-seconds of aiming.

That's a -8 to hit for range.

+11 for number of projectiles, +5 for Acc, +1 for Braced, +3 for the targeting computer.

23 or less to hit.

Average roll of 10 means that 14 hit.  Critical hit of 3 just gets 21.

About half of what you'd expect with the average roll.  75% with a critical hit.

GURPS doesn't simulate large numbers of projectiles well.