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12 December 2012

More Statistics

I just noticed something about the gun statistics.

If crime was directly related to the number of guns that are legally owned then there should be a direct correlation between the UK and Florida for gun crime.

FL, 17,385,430 people 4,249,430 to 15,299,178 guns.  24.5 to 88 guns per hundred persons.  883 murders.  548 with a gun.

UK, 63,142,700 people, 4,162,675 guns.  6.6 guns per 100 persons.  722 murders.  19 with a gun.


If guns cause crime then Florida should have 3.71 to 13.33 more gun murders and it should line up exactly.  The UK has a gun murder rate of 0.03 gun murders per 100,000 persons.  Florida has 3.15.

13.33 times 0.03 is 0.4; not 3.15.

The overall murder rates per 100,000 persons is 5.08 for FL and 1.14 for UK.  Florida has 4.46 times the rate that the UK has.  That's in the 3.71-13.33 range, but that breaks because hardly any murders are committed in the UK with a gun.

Florida has 105 times the rate of gun murder than the UK and just 4.46 times the overall rate.  We have at least four times the guns, perhaps more.

I picked Florida for the comparison because that's what Mr Clarkson used and I live here.

What about other developed nations?

Switzerland?  About 8,000,000 people.  45.7 guns per 100 persons.  3,656,000 guns.  0.58 gun murders per 100,000 people (1998).  Their rate is not half of the US (88.8 guns per 100 ppl) it's also not eight times that of the UK.  Switzerland has an overall murder rate of 0.7 per 100k.

Russia?  143,300,000 people.  8.9 guns per 100 persons (Hey!  Similar to Jolly Ole!)  I don't have the numbers for gun murders, but the overall murder rate is 10.1 per 100,000...  Oops.  That's WORSE than the US!  Double the murders with 1/10 the guns!

Canada is a developed nation, right?  35,005,000 people.  30.8 guns per 100.  10,781,540 guns.  0.76 gun murders per 100k.  Overall murder rate 1.6 per 100k.  Overall rate is very similar to England, isn't it?  Culturally similar people too.  Six times the guns and ten times the gun rate.

I am starting to see that making guns available means murderers will use a gun not some other weapon.  But I am not seeing how having lots of guns around makes it more likely you'll be murdered; note that the Swiss have a lower overall murder rate than the UK and almost eight times the firearm density.

This is just like suicide.  The means does not determine the why.  Put another way, they've decided WHAT they are going to do, the HOW follows from what's available.

1 comment:

  1. you're WRONG! If a nation has HIGHER crime than the US it CAN'T be a "Developed Nation". Doesn't matter if they have running water, electricity, functional roads, or representative government.

    "Developed" simply means "Any nation that supports our backwards world view!"

    Ta-Daaaa!

    ReplyDelete

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