07 September 2017

Wind Speed

A glaring difference between the Euro and GFS models is the wind speeds.

The GFS models have a 10m altitude setting for showing the winds.

The Euro model uses 800 and 500 hPa "temperature" as an altitude proxy.  This is why you don't see any wind speed changes in their model as it makes landfall.  They freely admit that this fails to account for many variables and give inaccurate surface wind predictions, while also increasing the accuracy of the storm path projections.

It's astonishing how fast the wind speeds drop off at the surface over land, while the winds far above continue to rush by.

Stay safe.  Respond rationally, don't panic.

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