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I have to admit, I am bit torn.
I definitely don't want a nation that has "Death to America" rallies to have a nuclear device.
But, for as long as they've been at it, you'd think that Iran would have come up with something by now. Something includes a power plant, by the way.
It took less than three years from theory to Trinity. With 1940's tech.
On the other hand, it does feel like if they weren't up to something, we wouldn't keep finding out about secret nuclear research labs.
Which brings us to the recent statement by the IAEA chief that Iran isn't intending to build a bomb. Considering how often a new, secret, facility that the IAEA had no knowledge of is found... Forgive me for being skeptical of their analysis.
Looking at things, I've been hearing about how close Iran is to making a nuke for close to 30 years and there's, proven, timelines to get there that are far shorter.
Which does make me wonder just how bad the post-Shah brain drain was.
Was everyone smart enough to make a nuke also smart enough to escape?
Honestly I am shocked they haven't just bought one from the former Soviet Union... They have cash and with enough money things can happen...
ReplyDeleteHonestly I think it is mostly that Putin doesn't want to give up control of something like that even though I'm sure he'd love the money. He doesn't want any more big boys with big toys competing with him for world influence.
Delete-swj
Wasn't thinking of the actual country, but if an officer or the like were to "disappear" one for a whole bunch of cash?
DeleteFrom what I hear, the Iranians don't hate the American people. They hate the American government. On that, I can hardly blame them.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is they hate the American government for the wrong reasons. Because Americans are too free for the likes of Islamafasists, not because our government is too totalitarian, which is reality.
DeleteFor the American people, we are just like anyone else. Convert to Islam (Shiite) or be killed.
-swj
From what I hear, while the Iranians hate the American government, they kill American people to show this.
DeleteThe truth is probably somewhere in between. Some of the Iranian nuclear program may be pure bluff, like Saddam's WMD, to get concessions and scare neighbors. The rest may be a serious attempt, regularly sabotaged by the Mossad. Stuxnet, the occasional assassination of scientists, and bombing raids are just the attacks we hear about.
ReplyDeleteThe Iranians overthrowing the mullahs and locking up the IRGC would do more for Middle East peace than anything else.
Israel took out Iraq's first couple attempts at making nukes, most notably the aerial strike in 1982. But Iraq kept pursuing poison gas, biologicals and, yes, nukes up to the invasion. The chemicals and biologicals were very much ready to be used and had been used on Iran and Iraq and the Kurds. Their nuke program? Not so much, though there's always been the potential that Iraq and North Korea were collaborating.
DeleteIran has been working closely with North Korea which is known to have (crude) nuclear weapons, so given sufficient enriched materials, which are what all those secret labs are about refiniing, it isn't a big stretch to think that they couldn't buy the information needed to make bombs from North Korea. North Korea would love to have Iran's money and oil of course to further develop their military especially more medium and long range ballistic missle technology. Which of course they'd also sell to Iran. And if not North Korea, maybe Pakistan, who also is known to have nuclear weapons. Not to mention that Iran is always trying to cozy up to China.
ReplyDeleteIran + missiles + nuclear weapons? Bad for anyone within range.
-swj
If'n I recall, Iran's nuke program has been plagued by computer viruses, mysterious equipment failures (usually right almost at the end of the production cycle, deaths and defections by scientists and engineers (most likely due to Israeli action) and other oopsies.
ReplyDeleteThen there's the type of bomb. Our first generation nukes were horribly wasteful of nuclear material and required huge bombs that basically took up a super-bomber's bomb load to carry to the target. Our second gen nukes were still pretty damn big. It wasn't until the early 1950's that we made an aerial bomb capable of being lifted by a not-super bomber, the Mark 7 as carried by the F-84G.
It was the 4th gen weapons that got the weight down under 2,000 lbs.
So Iran could, theoretically, make a bigga bomb much like Little Boy or Fatman, but that would be only deliverable by ground as Iran has no real way to carry one and a sudden flight shift of an Iranian airliner into or near Israeli space would provoke said Israelis.
Kim's been allowed to develop nukes because there's no SE Asian version of Israel. Sure, Singapore might do it, Japan and South Korea also come to mind, but the Kims haven't been threatening nuclear war for the last 40 years.