19 July 2025

It's Like They Joined The Military

I've heard tell that the USAF has decided to make some changes to their uniform policies.

Article with deets here.

As with many things, the reaction from the most affected the best part.

I'm sorry, Snowflake, despite the joking around from the more senior services, the Air Force really is a branch of the military.

Uniforms and wearing of them uniformly is part of the deal.

Aliens VS Humans

 


18 July 2025

I'm Siding With The Railroad Here

Miami Herald trying to deny Darwin His due.

It really is about education and people not knowing how trains work.

We've become so used to everything having a dozen warning labels and having padding that we forget that there's things that will bite you if you stop paying attention.

Playing on the train tracks is one of those things.

It will also sort itself out if you give it time.

It will be hardest on the slowest learning, but that's how it goes. 

Trivia

When making a what-if, or alternate history, the dates things happen become important.

Big history stuff is pretty easy.

Little shit, like what goes into the equipment list for the players...

Like when did the M4 and M5 RAS's get adopted and enter widespread service?

That changes the weight on the M16A4 and M4 carbine.

That stuff matters to the character's encumbrance. 

An M16A4 rocking USGI A2 style handguards is 8 lb. 4.6 oz. with a loaded aluminum USGI magazine.  No rear sight.  No optics.

Changing to a RAS M5 without any grip panels or vertical grip makes it 8 lb. 10.3 oz.

Add a typical set of panels and a vertical grip and you're at 9 lb. 1.2 oz.  We still haven't added an optic or lights!

A detachable carry handle adds 8.8 oz.  The Army's Matech rear sight is 3.4 oz. and leaves space for an optic.

The M4 is a similar story.

An M4 with the pre-SOCOM weight barrel is a svelte 7 lb. 2.8 oz.

With a bare RAS M4 that rises to 7 lb. 5.7 oz.

With a some panels and a grip; 7 lb. 9.7 oz. 

Don't forget your sights! 

How much does your M16A4 weigh in Twilight: 2000?  Is the RAS even available and issued widely before Thanksgiving 1997?  Heck, was the M16A4 even available?

Let's start with the rifle.

The M4 carbine's NSN dates from October 1993, so no problem with it being around. 

An M16A4, in homeline, was first issued in July 1997.  The NSN was first issued in November 1993.  With more money flowing because the Cold War™ never ended in the T2K universe, it's at least plausible that the A4 makes it to general issue before the nukes fly.

Now the handguards. 

The NSN for the M5 RAS is first issued in February 1998, so probably too late for Twilight.  The M4 RAS NSN is from August 2002, so WAY too late.

Optics for T2K are even more restricted by history.

The ubiquitous Aimpoint Comp M2 (aka M68 CCO) isn't available until 2000, but the contract was let in 1997 in Homeline; so it should be available for the same reasons as the M16A4.

SOCOM issued the Trijicon TA01NSN from 1995.

The Elcan M145 is probably the "most likely" magnified issue optic for T2K.  It is known to Canadians as the C79 and civilians as the Spectre.

The Wrong Kind

Anyone else think it's ironic that parolees have, as a condition of their parole, a mandate to avoid the criminal elements of society and nearly always have a requirement to live in a half-way house for a period of time after release?

A half-way house that will be filled with their fellow parolees, who are from the criminal element they are supposed to avoid... 

17 July 2025

Film?

 

Jacob from Widener's sent me this link to a neat pocket-history of the M16A2

Linky link.

Of note are the photos being taken with a film camera!  I even stole one from the article so you get some incentive to go look at the rest.

Nikon F3, which, I think is period correct for an issue M16A2!

Pretty sweet, I think.

 

National Life Support Day

1902 – Willis Carrier creates the first air conditioner in Buffalo, New York. This should be a national holiday.

h/t Mostly Cajun 

Squid Games

Harvey and I binged Squid Games this past week.

We enjoyed it a LOT!

So much we did season 3 in one sitting.

I recently read a complaint from Hollywood that when they make original stuff, nobody watches it.

If it was as entertaining as what Korea is making, I think more people would.

Quietly Removed

I noticed that the "no guns" sign on the local bowling alley was no longer on the door this evening.

Kewl!

We noticed, and ignored it, last year for The Boy's Special Olympics practice sessions.

Not sure when it disappeared, but it's nice to see that it's gone.

Normally, I wouldn't give a place with such a sign my business, but it's for The Boy and it didn't stop us from carrying.

Concealed means concealed, yo.

16 July 2025

Y+ 80

80 years ago today the Trinity event occurred.

Homeline got the most boring version of this event. 

I Tell You What

I am absolutely certain that people are sick of being on eggshells around me.

I can fix that!

15 July 2025

Internet Outage

Just as the show I was streaming got to the good part...

No internet connection!

Lasted about half an hour.

Mutter mutter mutter. 

Thanks Kitties

One of the felines, probably Shadow, moved the home-defense carbine in it's ready rack and managed to turn on the light sometime today.

Thankfully I check it very frequently.

New batts installed and all is well. 

Out Of Production

A recurring theme in small arms development is the production line for the gun that's getting long in the tooth is long gone.

At about the same time as project AGILE was running with early AR-15 R601's a couple of the supporting Special Forces guys said that it really didn't offer a big improvement over the M2 carbine.

OK.

Let's make more M2s then!

Where'd the tooling go?

Inland went back to making car parts. 

Underwood went back to making typewriters.

Rock-O-La went back to making juke boxes. 

Quality Hardware went back to making tooling.

National Postal Meter went back to making postal scales.

Standard Products went back to making car parts.

Saginaw went back to making car parts.

IBM went back to making office equipment.

Only Winchester kept making guns and they returned to their pre-war commercial catalog and had five years of pent-up demand to satisfy.

There wasn't an M1/M2 production line left in 1964.

Colt, on the other hand, had production capacity available and was, not only, tooled up to make the AR-15, but was actively trying to get someone to buy them in quantity.

The rest is history. 

14 July 2025

Gentleman Adventurer

The little side search into the origins of the rapier led to a rabbit hole about whom, exactly, could wear a sword for social occasions.

In short, you needed to be a gentleman; or noble at all.

Commoners were forbidden.

Yes, the prohibitions on open carry are THAT old! 

Since all roads lead to gaming...

Fantasy settings are, normally, based on a medievalesque Europe.

Medieval Europe was feudal.

But, rarely are adventurers nobles. 

Sumptuary laws would matter in such a place.

Commoners are not allowed certain arms in most of Europe.  There are a couple of specific sword designs that slip through loopholes in these laws; the Germanic gross-messer (large knife) is one such.

Lawrence Watt-Evans' fantasy setting of Ethshar has a prohibition on wizards doing anything to extend the life of a noble.  No healing, no curing of diseases, no spells of youth or immortality.

Social status starts to matter a lot when these sort of conditions are applied. 

And the players would HATE it!

One of the iterations of William the Landless caused all kinds of headaches for my fellow players because I'd paid for the social status to be a baron.  There were things I got to do they weren't because of my noble status.  Not least of which was the right to dispense high and low justice!

It got us out of trouble a couple times too.  Producing that signet and telling off the local men-at-arms was handy.

But the idea that I could order them around and my commands would be backed by the law really pissed them off.

A different noble character got me in trouble with the GM for dressing down his girlfriend's character for her temerity of calling my character in familiar terms.

Carl had responded to our question, during character creation, if his world used normal, historical, fuedalism with, "yes."

We couldn't have unwashed peasants acting our equal, now, could we? 

Fashion Accessories

Rapiers, by the way, come from a Spanish sword called 'espada ropera,' or dress sword.

They come from side swords, Italian for rapier, 'spada de lato de striscia' is "strip side sword."  Strip referring to the width of the blade. 

It becomes a rapier instead of a side sword when the blade narrows enough.

Generally, the hilt needs to get fancied up too to be considered a "real" rapier, but there are side-swords and back-swords with equally elaborate hilts.

Wikipedia has a little snippet about where the word rapier comes from. 

The narrowing of the blade made them lighter for the same length, thus easier to lug around in social situations.

Some people noticed that you could get more length for the same weight as the old side swords and became tripping hazards at parties.

Eventually the "same length but lighter" school prevailed and the small-sword was invented. 

Rapiers

Talking with FuzzyGeff about Pathfinder and I noticed, again, that it has a rapier.

In the real world, rapiers don't come along until well after guns are commonplace on the battlefield, mid 16th century.

Their development happens about the same time as the processes that allow for there to be steel plate armor.

But do you need guns for them to be developed.

The "fencing" weapons all come the idea that your opponent isn't wearing armor.

Armor that was, mostly, abandoned because of firearms.

Firearms that aren't any better than crossbows that didn't spur people to stop wearing armor; at least according to the stats in the game.

GURPS gives more realistic guns and thus you can see why someone wouldn't want to be wearing something heavy and uncomfortable that didn't do much to protect them.

Pathfinder?  FuzzyGeff informs me that if you get a crit hit with a gun, it's pretty spectacular, but otherwise, it's the same as a crossbow for damage and rate of fire.

Crossbows, in the real world, didn't spur the abandonment of armor, despite there being some that can punch all the way through the knight, saddle and horse if fired downward at an angle like you'd see if they were firing from a wall. 

Pistol 9mm M19?

I'm old enough to have been issued both an M1911A1 and an M9.

I remember reading, literally, decades of gnashing teeth about it too.

By the time we had the M9 competition we needed new pistols.  I saw our arms room and it was only other units getting their new M9s that let us get the pick of the litter for our .45's.

New M1911A1's had two big problems in 1979 and 1984.  They would be expensive and they weren't in NATO compliant 9x19mm.

By 2014 when we started noticing the M9's were getting worn out there was a real effort to get upgraded versions of the Berettas beyond the already issued M9A1.

Beretta put forth the M9A3 further updated to M9A4.

But but but modular...

Looking at a couple of places, it doesn't look like the M9A4 and M17 are all that different in price out there on the commercial market despite there being a commercial version of the M17 that's about half the price.

I just wish the military could internalize the nugatory value of a pistol and just pick one.

No special requirements.  No features that will never be utilized (like modularity*). 

There's almost nothing about a pistol that needs more than a large commercial-off-the-shelf purchase.

If you did that you could also buy American.  I'd much rather see Ruger or Smith and Wesson get the money than a subsidiary of a foreign company.

Even more, I would like to see us buying designs again and then bidding out the manufacturing.  Colt, after all, didn't make most of the M1911A1s.  I completely understand why that won't fly, but it'd be nice. 

All of this is coming to my mind because, with all the problems the P320 is having in LEO and government agencies, I can't help but wonder if the M19 is around the corner.

I would really think it would be great if S&W could get that contract and put the military back in the M&P name.

We could even stick with the M9A1.  Beretta still makes them.  The M9 is actually still in service. 

* If they were REALLY embracing modularity there wouldn't even be an M18 designation.  There'd just be the M17 and several barrel, slide and frame combinations for the armorer to make the unit's guns from. 

A Difference

I'm reading a lot about about P320 issues and I remembered something.

The New York trigger for Glocks.

Cops drawing their pistols by the trigger isn't even a gun problem, it's a user problem and Glock had a fix for it in a very short time.

I don't think they even needed to be sued to figure out the heavier trigger to alleviate the issue. 

It doesn't feel like Sig is taking the issue seriously. 

That perception can affect a decision to buy. 

13 July 2025

BDS v TDS

I think that people are losing their minds harder with Trump Derangement Syndrome than Bush Derangement Syndrome because Trump is actually doing something.

We have a local version with DeSantis, he's making bold moves and they don't know how to handle it when they dislike them for being the wrong party AND they're bucking the status quo.

Because the hated republicans were only allowed to maintain the status quo when they were in power, never to reverse the ratchet. 

12 July 2025

AUGH!

 A while ago, Shadow was kind enough to knock my Lego Atredes Ornithopter off the dresser.

Like all such events, it broke apart into its component parts spectacularly.

Because the wings have a folding and flapping mechanism, it was not a simple matter of just putting it back together because the linkages were now loose and misaligned.

I'd have to take it even more apart to start back to reassembly.

So I put it off for months.

Tonight I decided to, finally, put it back together.

I got it all the way to mounting the wings when I noticed I had parts left over.

Structural parts.

I needed to take it apart almost as far as when I started to get those pieces back in.

But it is back together and placed where the cats don't go.

HUZZAH!


 



I'm Absentminded Enough Thanks

The VA pushes Gabapenten hard when you complain about any kind of chronic pain.

I get suicidal ideation at low doses, so it's not for me.

Turns out, I might have dodged a bullet with it.

It might cause dementia!

I'm flakey enough on my own!

I Don't Think They're Thinking This All The Way Through

The Left keeps forgetting that, for the Right, violence is binary and not a continuous variable.

When they finally find the Rubicon and cross it I don't think they will care for it.

And I won't feel sorry for them.  Ample warnings have been given.

What really bugs me is how often in the last five years that the whackiest conspiracy nuts have been the most accurate about what's going on.

It's like using the National Enquirer for daily news.

Speaking Of Harlots

Your party is in a city and you decide to have a random encounter, so you consult the table on page 191 of the OG Dungeon Master's Guide and roll "Harlot."

That's all well and good, you think, but what KIND of harlot does the party encounter?

The table on the next page has you covered!

Harlot encounters can be with brazen strumpets or haughty courtesans, thus making it difficult for the party to distinguish each encounter for what it is. (In fact, the encounter could be with a dancer only prostituting herself as it pleases her, an elderly madam, or even a pimp.) In addition to the offering of the usual fare, the harlot is 30% likely to know valuable information, 15% likely to make something up in order to gain a reward, and 20% likely to be, or work with, a thief. You may find it useful to use the sub-table below to see which sort of harlot encounter takes place:

01-10 Slovenly trull

11-25 Brazen strumpet

26-35 Cheap trollop

36-50 Typical streetwalker

51-65 Saucy tart

66-75 Wanton wench

76-85 Expensive doxy

86-90 Haughty courtesan

91-92 Aged madam

93-94 Wealthy procuress

95-98 Sly pimp

99-00 Rich panderer

An expensive doxy will resemble a gentlewoman, a haughty courtesan a noblewoman, the other harlots might be mistaken for goodwives, and so forth.

There's a table for virtually any kind of encounter in the DMG... 

Stupid Want

Bullpup rifles have their list of practical problems.

But they sure do look kewl!

Aly and Kaufman LLC makes an interesting lower receiver that mates with a BRN-180 upper.

Considering the L85A1 was, originally, based on the AR-18, it makes sense that you can adapt an AR-18 based upper to a bullpup lower.

It's $980 for the lower kit as shown.  $850 for an appropriate BRN-180 upper.  $26 for the flash-hider.  $75 for the, coming soon, pistol grip that's closer to the real deal and $160 for a set of irons that look like a non-SUSAT equipped gun.

I'd put a Primary Arms SLX 5x36 on it for another $330 and skip the irons.

Almost In The Cat Distribution System

 


11 July 2025

Mean Rounds Between Failure

I read a snippet about the reliability of the British L85A1 that gave a mean rounds between failure of just 95 rounds.

The US M4 carbine MRBF is 500.

That got me to wondering how that translated to a GURPS malf number.

The M4 gets the default TL6+ malf number of  17; which means it malfunctions on a critical failure.

The L85A1 gets a malf number of 16.

Are those 500 and 95 rounds between failure?

So I asked FuzzyGeff who's better with the maths than I am.  Any errors in the math as shown here are from me transcribing them incorrectly, I am sure.

A malf of 16 corresponds to a MRBF of just more than 20 rounds!

A malf of 17 corresponds to a MRBF of almost 52 rounds.

What the actual fuck?

But that's just firing single shots and both weapons can fire 3 rounds per roll in semi-automatic fire.

That raises the MRBF to 62ish and 155ish each.

Still WAY below spec.

It also illustrates that the "so unreliable millions of pounds were spent to fix it" rifle was holding to the default normal reliability standards in GURPS.

Even more fun...  This is per roll.

In full auto the L85A1's GURPS MRBF raises to 269.4 and the M4 to 775.7.

This underscores that GURPS is a GAME and not a simulation.

Making things less reliable than real creates more drama and excitement.

FuzzyGeff found a quote: "And once again, Probability proves itself willing to sneak into a back alley and service Drama as would a copper-piece harlot." that sums it up really well.

 

Move Your Fucking Mic!

I have misophonia.

Shit you don't notice drives me batty.

Watching videos or listening to some podcasters is like this for me:

"The GASP thing we're talking about GASP here SMACK is the sounds GASP made by them trying SMACK to GASP breathe and seem to SMACK always have sucked their GASP cheeks in when they GASP pause dramatically GASP between sentences."

The mic picks this up because they put in the wrong place or have the settings wrong.

This is not the least reason that I prefer to read rather than listen to someone drone on about a topic.

Another, informative, YouTuber, Mark Smith of the Four Boxes Diner's delivery drives me nuts as well.

He will emPHAAAAAAAAsize a word in his repetitious style and it's like nails on a chalkboard for me.

Ironically, actual nails on a chalkboard doesn't trigger me at all.

The Hits Keep Coming

The FBI has released a report on the P320 going off on its own.  PDF warning.

Interesting, if dry, reading.

The conclusion is that it can go off by itself if everything lines up correctly, and that can happen during a normal day's duty for an officer. 

10 July 2025

It NDs Today

This sure looks like something:


How many LE agencies have dropped the P320 now?

I wonder how long the M17 and M18 are going to last with this bad press.

Never mind the troops honest opinions of the M7 are starting to get attention too.

Hookers and blow only get you so far, eventually you need to make a product that works.

09 July 2025

Because I Never Throw Anything Away

I have a pdf file of the complete GM microfiche for the 91-96 Chevrolet B-Body parts list.

It's a truly wondrous document if you have one of these cars.

A buddy is going through tribulations with The Car Formerly Known As The Biscayne SS.

He ditched the drum brake rear end for a disc brake rear.

When he had that done he also upgraded to strange axles and a super-duper gear style locking differential.

Three years and 4k miles later things went pear shaped and one of the axle seals failed and all the fluid took the opportunity to depart containment.

When they were pulling things apart, they discovered the axle bearings were of the "axle-saver" style and not the standard type.

My buddy indicated he purchased new bearings with the new axles and gave them to his mechanic, Mike.

Mike has since stated that the bearings that my buddy provided were "loose" and he replaced them with what was found in the tube all fallen apart.

Which brings us back to the parts list!

You could get two different kinds of brakes and three different diameter ring gears in the 91-96 Caprice/Impala.

There are several housings to account for it, but there's only two axle bearings to deal with.

One is for wagons using the very common 8.50/8.625" ring gear 10-bolt and drum brakes.

The other is for all other applications.

I wonder if my buddy got a set for a wagon which is expecting larger diameter axles and that Mike didn't check and just assumed the loose was because of worn surface on the new axle.

I am watching from afar.

Prolly

 

I am fascinated how Pam Bondi went from having that list on her desk, just needed some redactions before she could release it, to "there is no list."

Somehow I think that the conspiracy people are more accurate than the official version and the conspirators are Streisand Effecting themselves.

08 July 2025

For That Bartender

Just because the Democrats aren't getting anywhere with their gun control in Florida, doesn't mean they're not trying.

They file their bills every year and they don't make it out of committee any better than pro-gun bills do.

Those repeated attempts and their grandstanding about it is why I can't trust them.

Failing and trying aren't the same thing and I won't relax just because they're failing.

What really worries me is how many of the "Republicans" up Tallahassee way used to be Democrats as recently as a single election ago.  I don't believe they've had an awakening and think that Republican values are their values now.  I think they changed parties because the Dem brand is so tainted they wouldn't have been elected or re-elected if they'd kept the branding.

A Democrat governor demanding gun control could most certainly sway some (maybe even enough) RINO's to get gun control passed.

I watched Governor Scott do it, and he was nominally pro-gun, after Parkland.

Imagine how bold they'd be with a Dem governor!

So yes, I do believe that the Democrats absolutely cannot be trusted because of their positions on guns.

Yes, I believe that they are still trying to ban guns, because they ARE trying to ban guns.  They just suck at it.

So I don't hate DeSantis, like the bartender does.

I don't hate JD Vance, like the bartender does.

I would vote for either of them over ANY Democrat we're likely to see running for president.

DeSantis and Vance don't worry me.

It Might Just Work

Kevin shares US v Rock Island Armory.

The Central District of Illinois dismissed the charges and the government did not appeal.

Read the whole thing.

It's something.

It's not dicta.

The suits over SBR, SBS, and AOW have a precedent in this case.

Veddy intresting. 

I Can

I can be nice.

I can be polite.

I can never darken the door again.

You tell me how I should just suck up the tyranny, I can just not bother to come by and pay for the goods that keep you employed.

A pity.

I will miss the place.

07 July 2025

I Don't Normally Make Popcorn

I cannot wait to see how the protests against immigration in Mexico are different from protests in the USA against immigration.

Because the Mexicans will surely have the moral position and we 'Mercians won't.

I do so love watching them spin hypocrisy in a manner that the normies can spot.

Remarkably Good

GURPS is not a simulator.

It's a tabletop role playing game.

A game.

Yet, it's been remarkably accurate about the effects of firearms.

I've been doing "Will it GURPS?" for longer than I've had a blog because the first two editions explicitly called out a "reality check" and if what you were doing was impossible in the rules, but worked in real life:  Reality trumps the rules!

That, alone, might be why I like GURPS so much to keep dabbling with it despite not playing more than a handful of sessions in 30 years.

My recent dive into .30 Carbine underscored it a bit.

A typical person has 10 hit points.  After taking 10 points of damage, they have to start checking to see if they pass out from the wounds.  After taking 20 points of damage, they have to start checking to see if their wounds killed them.

We have anecdotes of people hitting Chinese soldiers and getting no results from those hits.

I think I've managed to recreate the scenario with the rules.

The cold and underpowered ammo at longer ranges needs many hits to disable a 10 HP person inside the rules and seems to match reports from the battle.

The numbers I have for the underpowered ammo drop .30 Carbine down into pistol cartridge power levels and we have ample examples from police shootings that it can take many hits to stop someone.

The real problem will be breaking it to the players that their ammo is compromised and nobody has any extreme cold experience to tell them they're taking a penalty to their Guns/TL (Rifle) skill.

"Bloody murder!" they will cry!

06 July 2025

That's Kinda Telling

Old Radar Tech dropped some estimated numbers for the degraded .30 Carbine performance and it's spot on the same as .30 Super Carry.

Ouch. 

Probably Still The Aim (Updated To Account For Pi-)


 

I found one, ONE, forum entry claiming that a 1950's lot of Cartridge, caliber .30, Carbine, ball M1 was loaded to 1,600 fps.  Minimum spec. is 1,900; ideal is 1,990.

Update: 1,600 fps drops us to pi- territory

That gives us 3d+1 pi-.  4-19 raw damage with an average of 11 which is halved after penetrating armor.

With a 7% velocity drop because of the cold, we're at 3d pi- (3-18, avg. 10).

Against a normal, human, target that's going to take a few rounds to stop someone with DR 1 winter gear on.  2 to get consciousness and 4 to get death rolls.

Remember, though, out past 330 yards, damage is halved.

That's 2-9 (avg 5) for the 1,600 fps stuff and 1-9 (avg 5) for the 1,488 fps.

That's TEN solid hits, on average, to get to a death roll.

I've found a few anecdotal accounts where troops were engaging at 400+ yards.

You're not going to see your impacts at that range on clothing and with the sights not agreeing with the bullet's path, you're probably not hitting either.

The right drugs will give high pain threshold and the cold will also numb the recipient of the round to cause even good shot placement to the torso to be ineffective.

But let's take them at their word that they saw the impacts and hit where they were aiming.  It'd be blind luck too.  The bullets would be hitting low because of the cold with up to spec ammo and even lower with the underpowered stuff.  7 to 10 inches at 100 yards.  28 to 40 inches at 400.

Even with high pain threshold, an average hit of 11 to the torso will get 10 to penetrate which gets reduced to 5 and that will get the bad guy to 5 HP and they continue to charge!

Nailing them in the vitals will get 30 points delivered and two death rolls.

Past the 1/2D range, though, it will take ten average hits to get a consciousness roll on torso impacts and two to the vitals to get death rolls. 

Now that we've gone through all that...

When did the Korean war end?  1953.

I know a bit about the US Army supply chain and I'm not thinking it's likely that the 1950's vintage ammo that's been tested understrength made it to the troops, even if it was made during the three years of fighting.  The Army tends to FIFO their stuff. 

Probably Just The Cold

Got a comment suggesting that M1 Carbine ammo in Korea wasn't up to snuff.

I can't find the information they're citing, but the looking for it did turn up some interesting stuff about cold weather and ammo performance.

An Army publication for snipers (FM 3-22.10, Sniper (Dec 17) referenced in this link) says the round will impact 1" lower at 100 yards per 20°F the temperature is below the temperature when you zeroed the gun.

FM 3-22.10 pg. 4-147. The change in the point of impact is best determined by referencing past firing recorded in the sniper data book. As a rule of thumb, a 20-degree increase in temperature will raise the point of impact by one minute; conversely, a 20-degree decrease will drop the point of impact by one minute. 

And that's with a spitzer shape, not a round nose; like the .30 Carbine!

Chosin was -35°F and if the troops had zeroed on a nice 75°F day there's a 100 degree difference, or a 5" change of impact at 100 yards.  10" at 200.  15" at 300...

That's assuming the cold soak didn't weaken the springs so bad the hammer doesn't hit hard enough to set off the, now, less sensitive primer...

Norma published a video showing that .30-06 lost velocity as it got colder.


Everything is in Godless Metric.

Room temperature average velocity is 2,625 fps.

28°F ammo is 2,575 fps. (1.9% drop)

0°F ammo is 2,532 fps. (3.5% drop)

Norma specifies 2,772 fps. for this round from a 24" barrel, so we're also seeing the effect of losing 2" of barrel in the test.

2,772 gets us the bog-standard 7d pi from .30-06.

2,625 drops it to 7d-1 pi.

2,575 gives 6d+2 pi.

2,532 gives 6d+2 pi. 

A 3.5% drop in velocity for an M1 Carbine goes from 1,990 fps. to 1,919.5 fps.

That drops it from 4d+1 pi to 4d pi.  Still plenty of energy to penetrate winter clothes.

Losing another 3.5% to get to Chosin temps (baseless extrapolation here) gives 1,850 fps and 4d pi.

With these numbers one cannot help but concur that the troops were missing their targets.

There's a couple of sources that mention the Chinese troops were drugged to the gills.  I've written about another case of bad shot placement and drugged up opponents before: Juramentado