Nuclear anxiety is becoming...
Bitches, I grew up during the Cold War, served in its last days even.
I remember when people talked about how Ronnie was going to get us all killed when he would piss off the Russians and set off World War III.
Remember Twilight: 2000? When it was published in 1985 it was a viable scenario for WW3 to start from.
I lived under the threat of mutual assured destruction.
From a nation with enough warheads and delivery systems to assure that assurance.
I served in a posting where units like 11 ACR was to be a speedbump to the Soviet hoards so we'd have time to get to the tanks. Our job was to slow the Soviets down enough for troops from the US to get to their equipment at the POMCUS sites. We weren't expected to survive a conventional exchange with The Warsaw Pact, and our deaths were expected to trigger a general nuclear exchange once some local commander decided to fire a Pershing...
I'm sorry but the worry from North Korea or Iran is just not as big for me.
The feeling is more along the lines of, "I wish they'd fire of a nuke in anger so we could just end the issue." It'd be better if we didn't get alternating 8 years of appeasement to these nuclear aspirants.
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Nuclear weapons have so effectively served as a deterrent that the folks worried now have no concept of a limited nuclear exchange. The deterrent seems something like "we have 3500 nuclear warheads and they have 2, so we're tied". In fact, that's what L'il Kim is counting on.
ReplyDeleteI'm of the opinion that one of these days, certainly within the next century, battlefield level nuclear weapons will be used. It will be in some sort of limited regional war. I can totally see Saudi Arabia and Iran nuking each other. India and Pakistan? Fill in the blank.
I don't think it will lead to global thermonuclear war, but that's the wild card. I think all the simulations that end with a standoff between two big powers show that if one side thinks unless they launch everything, they lose everything, they launch. I think if a Russian ally (Iran) nukes a US ally (Saudis), or vice versa, we stay out of it and don't nuke each other. There's too much at stake.
FWIW.
I agree - in the past, the barrier to entry (both technical and financial) was high enough that only a fairly advanced country could have them. This has changed over the past 20 years and I expect to see other countries developing them in the near future; as more countries have them, especially smaller less stable ones, the likelihood of their use goes up.
DeleteMy dad was 3rd Armor in the gap from 83 to 86. We knew we were getting plowed under when they prepped the Fulda Gap with TNWs. These kids have no idea.
ReplyDeleteI spent '84-'87 at the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff in the HQ SAC underground, working on the targeting databases for ICBMs and SLBMs. I knew if the Soviets started pushing buttons, I was a goner.
ReplyDelete