Wildly Optimistic

Twilight: 2000 was written in a time where we thought the Soviet Union was at least as strong and capable as we were.

It was first published in 1984.

In 1984 we didn't know what we know now.

T2K has since become an alternate history and the "what if" being presented is, "What if the USSR was really as good as the US Army Green Book said it was?"

Their equipment has parity with ours.

Their tactics are as effective as ours.

Their logistics system is as efficient as ours. 

Their economy is, at least, as good as ours.

They have numbers and a shorter supply line.

It's actually kind of amazing that NATO fights them to a draw by July 2000.

Among the things we have to accept as givens in this alternate history is the Soviet ICBMs being both reliable and accurate enough to hit the 78 targets shown on the map in the previous post.

The USA Hit List from Challenge issue 27 lists the total megatonnage dropped on a spot, my little experiment with Nukemap shows a single hit with that value centered on the thing most likely being aimed at.

Cape Kennedy, for example, in Urban Guerilla:

[R]eceived the attentions of a 1 0 warhead MIRV'd (one-megaton total) device. Unlike the other strikes, this was a series of pin-point attacks upon the launch sites themselves. The resulting blasts vaporized nine of the 11 launchpads and the vehicle assembly building.

That's to get enough spread to get all of the launch sites, which a single 1 mt ground burst wouldn't.

 I centered the 1mt ground burst on the vehicle assembly building.  You'll note that most of Cape Canaveral AFB is well clear of the blast effects.

As far as accuracy goes, the 500 kt missile aimed at Mayport:

Mayport Naval Station in Jacksonville suffered a near miss that landed in the sea just offshore. The resulting nuclear-induced tidal wave and wide-spread radioactive seawater contamination were dreadful and deadly. Millions died, both in the wave surge and in the subsequent legacy of nuclear poisoning, disease, starvation, and chaos that followed.

A problem with the Challenge article is it lacks details given in the modules.

The hit list is also hampered with a lack of information about which warheads the Soviets were using.  The KSC strike matches a sub-launched R-39 pretty well.

Of note, the Soviet Union had thousands of warheads and just over 100 are fired at the US and Canada.  Likewise, the US response was very restrained.

There were more nuclear strikes in Germany and Poland than in all of the US and Canada.  Seems to me that these nations might be a bit bitter about that once the war fizzles out and notes can be compared.

We know from the game 2300: AD, set in the same setting 300 years later, that the world does recover, for the most part, by 2020.