24 July 2021

Years And Years

Way back when I asked, "what are you trying to prove by firing thousands of rounds without cleaning or lubrication?"

I got a lot of shit for asking that.

But the question still stands.

We know the testing protocol, and the results of the test.  What we don't know is the provable hypothesis which leads to the test itself.

I took more shit when I stated that it doesn't matter if the gun chokes on the +1 round past the ammo I am willing to carry because I will be out of ammo and very worried if the fight is still ongoing.

Here's the deal, though:

I have yet to encounter the gun which cannot fire the basic load.

Can an M1911A1 fire the 7+1 in the gun and two spare 7 round magazines without cleaning?

Yes.

I've asked before, "How many rounds are you lugging around?"

I've rarely encountered the person who's carrying more than one reload.  Most commonly, the people who respond are carrying ZERO reloads.

It's a very rare, and very crappy, gun which can't fire a single magazine without a malfunction.  And we tend to know which guns those are before firing a shot now.

Most new made guns, even the cheapest anymore, can pass this test.

It comes down to risk assessment.

I don't plan on getting into a firefight.  If I did, I am not carrying concealed and I am not carrying a pistol as my primary arm.

A firefight might find me, but it's not the way to bet.

Nearly all armed interactions don't involve firing a shot.  Most don't even require you actually have a firearm, you just need to warn the potential assailant that you are armed and they back down.  Look it up!  It's about 90% of the interactions.

90% of the remaining 10% require you have a gun, or something that is believably a gun.  Brandishing will end the interaction and you can depart unmolested.

Now we're into the small numbers.  90% of the 10% of the 10% (0.1%) of the time you're going to have to fire a shot.  You don't even need to hit your assailant!

90% of the remainder (0.01%) of the time you're going to have to hit them.

The rest of the time your hits are going to have to hit something vital and NOW which gun, how reliable it is, how well does your ammunition perform and did you bring enough ammo will actually matter to the equation.

So?  What gun and how much ammo are you bringing to the 0.001% chance you're in a real firefight with your carry gun?

Think hard on that.

I don't carry an armored briefcase on the off chance I hit the big number on a scratch-off lottery ticket to carry my winnings.

I don't take classes on money management to deal with the vast fortunes from winning the powerball either.

The truth is, I'm very unlikely to end up needing a gun at all.

But...

It is also true that it's far better to have a gun and not need it than to need a gun and not have it.

You just need to learn to assess the odds.

By the way, you're far better served buying some concealable body armor than carrying a gun if you're really worried about the 0.001% scenario; but I so rarely see gunwriters advocating for that.

I wonder why?

Is it because they can't shill for classes on how to wear a vest?

4 comments:

  1. Yes, I never heard a decent explanation of the reasoning behind the multi-thousand round shooting. After a few hundred rounds, most guns start to get pretty carboned up, depending on how clean-burning the powder is. Will they still shoot? Yeah. Maybe as a torture test there is some validity, but who is going to abuse a gun like that? It's like saying one car is better than another because it lasted longer with no maintenance.

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  2. It is a truism that human beings are VERY bad at assessing risk - just look at the hysteria over COVID.

    All too often the severity of the worst POSSIBLE outcome becomes the sole factor in the risk assessment.

    eg. If I get COVID, I might DIE IN AGONY, UNABLE TO BREATHE, therefore no imposition is unacceptable if it mitigates that risk.
    Similarly, if I am targeted by a criminal, he might be with 37 friends who all served in the 101st Airborne, wile each is carrying an M-16, an M-203, AND a flame thrower, so I NEED a gun that can fire a bajillion rounds without cleaning.

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  3. "What gun and how much ammo are you bringing to the 0.001% chance you're in a real firefight with your carry gun
    Think hard on that."

    That is what I think the Mouse Gun Crowd are thinking. Nobody but Drug Intoxicated or Bat Shit Crazy will risk getting shot by anything, including rimfire. Not unless the payoff is a known substantial. The hide-out is much better than nothing without being burdonsome to carry every day.

    jrg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My dad stood down several Hell's Angels at Sturgis with nothing more than a Bauer .25; falling firmly in the brandishing is enough category.

      Of course we had to break camp and head back home early before they figured out who and where we were. If they'd known specifically whom Dad was, then we'd be in the "what round for the ravening hoard?" territory.

      It doesn't hurt that the mouse guns are getting more puissance. A Shield Plus is only a bit bigger than a .25 and not only carries more shots, but bigger shots.

      Delete

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