30 March 2020

Alarmingly Reassuring

Doing a better job of doing the math that says what I've been saying about it being way more widespread than the number of confirmed infections.

1 comment:

  1. Very interesting paper!

    I've been thinking since I read the cruise ship article that the problems we're seeing are all related to the way we're sampling. If we base all of our numbers on talking with ICU staff, who only see the most critical patients, we're not going to see the big picture.

    Something he doesn't address but figures in is the way we keep hearing "it stays infectious on surfaces for three weeks." That seems to contradict the CDC saying the chances of getting it from someone aren't above 10% (I think - from memory) unless you're confined with them. If it was infectious on some surface for 3 weeks, I think there'd be many more cases than there are.


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