Fear Uncertainty and Doubt.
It's a thing.
There's more actual data that escapes China, to their great personal risk, because Xi appears to be a great admirer of the Clinton method of silencing opponents.
There's actual data coming from South Korea.
There's actual data from the controlled experiment of the Diamond Princess.
You know what?
They all pretty much agree that hardly anyone is going to catch this.
Like 80 to 90 percent don't catch it.
Then there's the 80 to 90 percent who catch it and don't show any symptoms at all.
Then, of the 10-20 who catch it and show symptoms... 80 to 90 percent don't need professional care at all; let alone begin to strain ICU's.
The bad news, if you DO need the ICU there's a moderately large number who're going to be dying despite best efforts. Like 3%. That doesn't seem high, but it's huge for today's modern medicine.
That might be why people who work in healthcare are so entirely Debby Downer about this.
It doesn't explain why they seem to want everything to go off the rails so fervently though.
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Just like every flu season. Stay clean, stay away from sick people, and if you are warehoused in a crappy old-folks home or 'rehabilitative hospital' because you are old and infirm or young and infirm or just infirm, you are focked.
ReplyDeletePanicking is stupid.
Like, well, today. Went to Publix, where normally sub-intelligent humans do not shop, and there was a blond mother with two blond daughters, all with gloves on their hands. One of the daughters was rubbing her gloved hand on her face and I politely told her that THAT is not how to use gloves as protection. Mom got huffy, until a doctor (scrubs, with Dr. Somebody embroidered on his scrub-top) said, "He's right. You just broke containment. And none of you are in the susceptible group anyways. If you were in the susceptible group, you shouldn't be shopping."
The data from the Flu Cruise and from South Korea both show that even if you are in the threatened population, as long as you aren't in a totally filthy socialist nation like Com China or socialist Italy or New York City or Lost Angeles or Broward County, then yer cool.
Bwahahahahahahaha. Who would have known that Mother Nature herself would, during an election year, give us the perfect example of why socialism and communism sucks male moose expanding reproductive organ? Bwahahahahhahahahahha
It's not the first order effects that are the problem. It's the second and third order effects that are going to be a problem.
ReplyDeleteSorting through all the data available indicates that this particular coronavirus has the potential to blow up a very fragile system.
Systemic fragility mean anything?
Co-morbid conditions are the make or break for survival.
Yeah, most people are gonna survive just fine. Most people who play the lottery don't hit the jackpot.
If I had the same odds of winning the lottery as I do of dying of COVID19 I'd buy multiple tickets EVERY DAY...
But here's two questions nobody has answered:
1. What's the expiration date/conditions for the various 'declarations of public health emergency' to be rescinded? (AND WHO DETERMINES IF THOSE CONDITIONS ARE MET???)
2. Cui bono?
In Florida the Governor's declaration runs out on April 8th and requires Congress to reconvene to extend it.
DeleteI expect that things will have calmed down considerably by then and the pain in the ass of getting our state congress in quorum will keep it from being extended.
Your odds of dying from normal, everyday flu are MUCH higher than hitting the lottery too. Still rather win the lottery than die of anything.
With all the churn in articles, I can't find the reference: But a health official in Italy is saying that nearly all the deaths there are from people with something that had them in death's antechamber when they got the virus and that knocked them through the door. Like fewer than five have died from catching Kung Flu as the first illness on the list that snuffed them.
I linked to another article where I said, TLDR: we still don't have enough data.
Some systems are more fragile than others. Some states medical systems were already strained from the load than others, so where you are right now and in what state will matter a lot.
Running a hospital is beau coup profitable in Florida, so we tend to have excess capacity. California... not so much, I hear.