There was once a time when I could have calculated this...
763 infected (9,338 tested) on the 21st and 1,412 (15,547 tested) today.
The number of detected cases doubled and the number of tests administered went up by 50%.
This is reminding me of something from stats and it's tickling the back of my memory, but not revealing itself.
There's 21.5 million people in Florida. 0.072312% of the population has been tested.
0.00657% of the population has been found to have the Wu Ping Cough.
0.00008% of the population has died.
Yet... we're locked down.
In the 24 days we've been panicking about this, 18 people have died from it in Florida. Current CFR in Florida is 1.27%. It was 1.38% yesterday. 1.29% on Sunday. 1.57% on Saturday. 1.95% on Friday. 2.08% on Thursday. 2.44% on Wednesday. 3.24% a week ago.
THAT'S GOOD NEWS THAT'S BEING REPORTED BUT NOT EMPHASIZED!
As we get more people tested and more cases located the CFR keeps falling. Although predictions about the future are especially hard, I think we're going to see that trend continue.
And the reason for it is that it was already out because China actively lied about it, suppressed information about it and we had two months of unfettered travel from the point of origin to the US and our tourist spots during a major Chinese holiday which brings them in droves.
I predict that we actually have about 3,655,000 cases with 2,924,000 not showing symptoms and the rest saying, "this must just be the flu" out of denial or hope because their symptoms don't seem that bad.
For the record, CFR for my back of the envelope estimate is 0.00049%. Trivial.
Where'd I get my number? Population of Florida times 17% which is the percentage who seem to get it in uncontrolled spaces.
We had three months for it to spread before anyone noticed and did anything.
So it's everywhere.
If it's everywhere, then the death rate isn't anything to be frightened of.
The devastation brought on us by shuttering so much business will be far worse and already is.
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Just some thoughts, as I'm bad at statistics. But we're not stupid.
ReplyDeleteSome Chinese can't speak Chinese! Many dialects.
Extrapolating spread has also been debunked by "why there are not vampires". 1,2,4,8,16,32.... But it's worse than that, they say. Exactly. If it was so, it would have already happened quicker because you say MY math is wrong.
Tomorrow, Today, and Yesterday. The theory is the hospitals will be overrun Tomorrow. Tomorrow never gets here.
Yesterday something Could have happen such that Today you have a 50/50 chance of not getting into a hospital bed if needed. Just like you have a 50/50 chance of getting it (or anything). It is a yes or no. Kind of like being "sort of pregnant." Either are or are not.
Much like a DNA sample used against you in court. Until everyone in the world has been sampled, it can not be said with 100% accuracy that you are the only positive match. It is speculation of extrapolation.
It's my blog and I can make exceptions to the prohibition on unsigned Anonymous comments if I want to.
DeleteBut, Anon... I'd appreciate it if you'd reply here with a handle of some kind.
--Angus.
Sorry.
ReplyDeleteIt's Jerry.
Dairy farmer in WA. I like your stuff. Though some topics go right over my head.
Thanks!
Delete