01 June 2020

Clutching At Straws And Or Pearls

It'd been doubling every two days in Florida these past few.

Click here to see the daily percentage of increase in cases.

1 on March 1st.
5 on the 5th.
23 on the 9th.
77 on the 14th.
100 on the 15th.
149 on the 16th.

First reporting of deaths.

216 (unknown tested) 7 dead on the 17th.  CFR 3.24%
328 (unknown tested) 8 dead on the 18th.  CFR 2.44%
432 (unknown tested) 9 dead on the 19th.  CFR 2.08%
563 (unknown tested) 11 dead on the 20th.  CFR 1.95%

This also marks the first time the news has mentioned more testing rather than more illness is why the numbers are going up so quickly.

763 (9,338 tested) 12 dead on the 21st.  CFR 1.57%
1,007 (11,270 tested) 13 dead on the 22nd.  CFR 1.29%  Darn it, the blip collapsed.
1,227 (13,094 tested) 17 dead on the 23rd.  CFR 1.38%
1,467 (16,046 tested) 20 dead on the 24th.  CFR 1.36%
1,977 (23,723 tested) 23 dead on the 25th.  CFR 1.16%
2,484 (29,114 tested) 29 dead on the 26th.  CFR 1.18%
3,198 (33,822 tested) 46 dead on the 27th.  CFR 1.44%
4,038 (43,071 tested) 56 dead on the 28th.  CFR 1.39%
4,950 (50,528 tested) 60 dead on the 29th.  CFR 1.21%
5,704 (56,702 tested) 71 dead on the 30th.  CFR 1.24%
6,741 (64,661 tested) 85 dead on the 31st.  CFR 1.26%  Did not double in three days for the second time!
7,773 (69,265 tested) 101 dead on the 1st.  CFR 1.30%
9,008 (80,356 tested) 144 dead on the 2nd.  CFR 1.60%
10,268 (95,835 tested) 170 dead on the 3rd.  CFR 1.66%
11,545 (107,313 tested) 195 dead on the 4th.  CFR 1.69%
12,350 (116,898 tested) 221 dead on the 5th.  CFR 1.79%  First day since this started that there weren't more new cases than the day before.  Taking more than five days to double now.
13,629 (126,048 tested) 254 dead on the 6th.  CFR 1.86%
14,747 (138,618 tested) 296 dead on the 7th.  CFR 2.01%  Six days to double now.
15,698 (144,570 tested) 323 dead on the 8th.  CFR 2.06%.
16,826 (156,852 tested) 371 dead on the 9th.  CFR 2.2%.
17,968 (165,686 tested) 411 dead on the 10th.  CFR 2.33%
18,986 (173,187 tested) 446 dead on the 11th.  CFR 2.35%
19,895 (185,520 tested) 461 dead on the 12th.  CFR 2.32%
21,019 (201,005 tested) 499 dead on the 13th.  CFR 2.37%

Rate of increase is (give or take) 5-6% a day.  Not great, not horrible.  Still tracking at about 10±1% of those tested.  There's a definite bias in the selection criteria for how we're determining who has it.

21,628 (205,413 tested) 571 dead on the 14th.  CFR 2.64%  Good day for new cases, bad for deaths.
22,519 (215,158 tested) 614 dead on the 15th.  CFR 2.73%
23,340 (225,736 tested) 668 dead on the 16th.  CFR 2.86%
24,753 (241,913 tested) 726 dead on the 17th.  CFR 2.93%
25,492 (253,183 tested) 748 dead on the 18th.  CFR 2.93%
26,314 (262,495 tested) 774 dead on the 19th.  CFR 2.94%
27,058 (273,552 tested) 823 dead on the 20th.  CFR 3.04%
27,869 (284,206 tested) 867 dead on the 21st.  CFR 3.11%
28,576 (290,476 tested) 927 dead on the 22nd.  CFR 3.24% I think we're getting close to the third peak on deaths and it going down from here if it matches the same curve as the confirmed infections.
29,648 (303,050 tested) 987 dead on the 23rd.  CFR 3.33%
30,533 (320,984 tested) 1,046 dead on the 24th.  CFR 3.43%
30,839 (334,974 tested) 1,055 dead on the 25th.  CFR 3.42%  No evening update at time of posting.
31,528 (346,365 tested) 1,074 dead on the 26th.  CFR 3.41%
32,138 (358,127 tested) 1,088 dead on the 27th.  CFR 3.39%  The number of new dead has dropped precipitously, fingers crossed that this is a trend!
32,846 (368.651 tested) 1,171 dead on the 28th.  CFR 3.57%  Still hoping for a downward trend and this is a blip.
33,193 (375,300 tested) 1,218 dead on the 29th.  CFR 3.67%  New cases are way down.  Deaths are not following the same curve as infections.
33,690 (384,153 tested) 1,268 dead on the 30th.  CFR 3.76%
34,728 (404,467 tested) 1,314 dead on May 1st.  CFR 3.78%  Big jump in testing, big jump in cases.  Corresponds to a couple of counties opening up testing to any resident who wants tested?  Dunno.
35,463 (417,762 tested) 1,364 dead on May 2nd.  CFR 3.85%
36,078 (429,970 tested) 1,379 dead on May 3rd.  CFR 3.82%
36,897 (445,995 tested) 1,399 dead on May 4th.  CFR 3.79%
37,439 (467,553 tested) 1,471 dead on May 5th.  CFR 3.93%
38,002 (482,005 tested) 1,539 dead on May 6th.  CFR 4.05%
38,828 (495,075 tested) 1,600 dead on May 7th.  CFR 4.12%
39,199 (514,017 tested) 1,669 dead on May 8th.  CFR 4.26%
40,001 (529,865 tested) 1,715 dead on May 9th.  CRF 4.29%
40,596 (539,630 tested) 1,721 dead on May 10th.  CRF 4.24%
40,982 (561,741 tested) 1,735 dead on May 11th.  CRF 4.23%
41,923 (580,316 tested) 1,779 dead on May 12th.  CFR 4.24%
42,402 (585,478 tested) 1,827 dead on May 13th.  CFR 4.31%
43,210 (609,574 tested) 1,875 dead on May 14th.  CFR 4.34%
44,138 (629,461 tested) 1,917 dead on May 15th.  CFR 4.34%
44,811 (630,795 tested) 1,964 dead on May 16th.  CFR 4.38%
45,588 (635,081 tested) 1,973 dead on May 17th.  CFR 4.33%
46,442 (677,710 tested) 1,997 dead on May 18th.  CFR 4.3%
46,994 (717,162 tested) 2,052 dead on May 19th.  CFR 4.37%
47,471 (772,669 tested) 2,096 dead on May 20th.  CFR 4.42%
48,675 (815,584 tested) 2,144 dead on May 21st.  CFR 4.4%
49,451 (837,132 tested) 2,190 dead on May 22nd.  CFR 4.43%
50,127 (858,112 tested) 2,232 dead on May 23rd.  CFR 4.45%
50,867 (872,916 tested) 2,237 dead on May 24th.  CFR 4.4%
51,746 (909,928 tested) 2,252 dead on May 25th.  CFR 4.35%
52,170 (924,920 tested) 2,259 dead on May 26th.  CFR 4.33%
52,634 (935,271 tested) 2,319 dead on May 27th.  CFR 4.41%
53,285 (953,321 tested) 2,364 dead on May 28th.  CFR 4.44%
54,497 (984,160 tested) 2,413 dead on May 29th.  CFR 4.43%
55,424 (995,886 tested) 2,447 dead on May 30th.  CFR 4.42%
56,163 (1,022,265 tested) 2,451 dead on May 31st.  CFR 4.36%
56,580 (1,041,318 tested) 2,460 dead on June 1st.  CFR 4.33%

The tiny numbers mean that the CFR will see seemingly significant swings which really aren't significant. 

Huzzah.

This post gets bumped to the top twice a day as new numbers are published.

An interesting, and dense, report that the CFR for Wuhan might be as low as 1.4% and not the widely reported 4.5%.  If that's true then Florida is doing pretty well even with the presently diagnosed cases.

Not doing so great with the CFR as more and more people are croaking and fewer new cases appear daily...

May 9, 2020:
The high CFR is apparently because Florida is God's waiting room and several of the spikes in the daily death count are from huge portions of rest home populations all going about the same time.  So much for no-visitation and social distancing.

May 11, 2020:
Fully one third to one half of all Wu Ping Cough deaths in Florida are in nursing homes!  That will explain the high CFR. 

May 20, 2020:
Testing is way up, but the number of new cases isn't much higher than before.  The number of new deaths per day seems to be fairly steady too.  Interestingly, neither new cases or new deaths per day is much changed from before we started to open back up.  That too is consistent with the disease being silently out there for longer than the official March 1st discovery.  I know of at least two people who were sicker than hammered shit in January and February and both were tested negative for the flu.  They got by on fluids, over the counter cold meds and rest.  If it was Wu Ping, how many people did they interact with while contagious in the time before they started feeling it?

June 1, 2020:
I think we can put a feather in this cap and stop updating this post daily.  With the riots going on, if there isn't a massive jump in cases from Anitfa spreading it to each other, this epidemic is over.

17 comments:

  1. Listened to the House Minority Leader on the radio today. He said that people need not get freaked out about the rapid increase in daily cases because the test kits are being shipped, received and used more and more every day.

    Yes, some increase in cases because of increase in spread. But increase because we actually can test because we've managed to circumvent the CDC and unleash private industry upon the test-kit issue.

    He still cautioned people to react as they should every flu season, don't cough or sneeze without covering one's mouth, don't spit or hock a luggie on the sidewalk, keep your fingers off your face, wash your hands, and stay a decent distance away from people.

    I find it interesting that the social mores that were enacted during the Spanish Influenza and the increase of TB in the 19teens and twenties, along with the spreading Polio epidemic, which comprised of shaving most facial hair (so as not to collect diseases in the old soup catcher) and covering one's mouth and nose when sneezing or coughing, combined with the need to have clean faces for gas masks in the trenches of WWI, combined with decent social distance, all which were forgotten starting in the late 50's and definitely during the hippie 60's, are now back as 'the new normal.'

    Good. I have been unhappy with the dirty hippie social style that seems to have mutated into the grossly unwashed and unkempt Antifa grunge-warrior.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not unexpected. But I'm still wondering about some of the numbers getting thrown around.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Numbers from Communist China and Socialist Italy, social-theistic Iran and other wonder-places of freedom and hope are decidedly questionable.

      And, thanks to the way the CDC stepped on their collective cranks, so are US stats until this week. Fortunately, last week President Trump went to the CDC and used his rather expensive shoe leather as a proctology tool and dislodged many 'smart' heads from their 'dumb' asses.

      Let the test kits flow.

      Research from South Korea, Japan and the Flu Cruise all show... rather encouraging stats if just decent health care is received and decent precautions are followed.

      Deadly against old, sick people with really crappy lungs from smoking and from living in places where air-pollution standards are about as questionable as 4-week old convenience store sushi.

      And deadly against people who are close to circling the drain.

      How to keep those in the worst risk factor segment alive? Maintain decent precautions, keep one's hands clean, don't hang around unsavory people, treat as soon as symptoms appear.

      Be a dumbass when you are in a risk group? Like in Italy where they had a hug-a-chinaman event? Then, dumbass, expect to get sick. And potentially die.

      But... unlike Aesop, I'm saying the numbers will be significantly less than what is predicted by people like him. As long as decent society mores return, and people learn to be more careful about what they can do to other people.

      Delete
  3. Angus, your "Huzzah" does not go unappreciated. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Angus, I noticed too that the John Hopkins map has removed the single blip-dot for each state infection totals and gone into more details across each state. Reuters has - so far - a map with state totals on its main page.
    https: // www.reuters.com/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Alachua County is going dark at midnight tonight, as we go full lockdown.

    Why?

    Reason 1: The great number of Communist Chinese students, many who went home and came back over winter break, and have had relatives evacuate from ChiCom before the quarantine.

    Reason 2: Self-entitled leftist jackwagons thought it was a-okay for them to go all spring-breaking. And now have brought Wu Ping Cough (good one, by the way) to this county.

    Because of the selfish behaviour of the two groups, Alachua County has the highest increase rate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How long is the lockdown, Beans?

      Delete
    2. Supposedly for 14 days. But is that 14 days from the start of the lockdown, or 14 days after the last case is cured or what? Dunno.

      Be interesting to see what my county and city overlords will do if Trump calls off any emergency measures.

      Delete
    3. Well take care. The spring break really should have been halted, probably a matter of economics ("lost revenue") when the call was made.

      Delete
    4. It was cancelled for the most part. Just the self-entitled junior socialists were so concerned about their immediate needs that they apparently believed the concept of quarantine didn't apply to them.

      Like all the ass-wipes who went to Mardi Gras parades.

      Delete
    5. What should have and what are sometimes are completely different things, especially the more left one's politics are.

      Delete
    6. Mardi Gras...I'd forgotten that, yep. And true on what else you write - I agree. Take care.

      Delete
    7. Like Mayor DeBlasio promoting Chinese New Year, come celebrate with 50,000 of your closest plague rats, now with actual Wuhan ChiComs! So... Here we are, March 26th, and Governor DeSantis (FL) has put quarantine restrictions on any damned Yankee from New York.

      HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA.

      Delete
    8. "DeSantis (FL) has put quarantine restrictions on any damned Yankee from New York." THAT'S fantastic and what should be done. People fleeing one area and potentially spreading disease to another geographic area is the last thing anyone needs. Almost sounds like....... a "border" policy a country should have ?!?!?! :D

      Delete
    9. DeSantis is everything that the previous Governor wasn't. And the previous governor, Rod Scott, was so much better than that feckless twit Charlie Crist.

      Delete
  6. Angus, you may have already seen this site, thought I drop a comment just in case. Allows one to look at Covid stats state by state using the drop down box in the green sub-header (where it says USofA).

    https: // covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    ReplyDelete
  7. Google created a site where you can see trends by state and down to a county level:
    https://covid19.biglocalnews.org/county-maps/index.html#/

    Unfortunately it does not include testing. This site does, but only down to a state level:
    https://covidtracking.com/

    You can use the covidtracking data with a spreadsheet to see the positive rate. In NY it's 40%0 and they are doing around 15,000 tests per day. CA has around a 10% positive rate and is doing around 15,000 tests per day.

    ReplyDelete

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