Clutching At Straws And Or Pearls

It'd been doubling every two days in Florida these past few.

Click here to see the daily percentage of increase in cases.

1 on March 1st.
5 on the 5th.
23 on the 9th.
77 on the 14th.
100 on the 15th.
149 on the 16th.

First reporting of deaths.

216 (unknown tested) 7 dead on the 17th.  CFR 3.24%
328 (unknown tested) 8 dead on the 18th.  CFR 2.44%
432 (unknown tested) 9 dead on the 19th.  CFR 2.08%
563 (unknown tested) 11 dead on the 20th.  CFR 1.95%

This also marks the first time the news has mentioned more testing rather than more illness is why the numbers are going up so quickly.

763 (9,338 tested) 12 dead on the 21st.  CFR 1.57%
1,007 (11,270 tested) 13 dead on the 22nd.  CFR 1.29%  Darn it, the blip collapsed.
1,227 (13,094 tested) 17 dead on the 23rd.  CFR 1.38%
1,467 (16,046 tested) 20 dead on the 24th.  CFR 1.36%
1,977 (23,723 tested) 23 dead on the 25th.  CFR 1.16%
2,484 (29,114 tested) 29 dead on the 26th.  CFR 1.18%
3,198 (33,822 tested) 46 dead on the 27th.  CFR 1.44%
4,038 (43,071 tested) 56 dead on the 28th.  CFR 1.39%
4,950 (50,528 tested) 60 dead on the 29th.  CFR 1.21%
5,704 (56,702 tested) 71 dead on the 30th.  CFR 1.24%
6,741 (64,661 tested) 85 dead on the 31st.  CFR 1.26%  Did not double in three days for the second time!
7,773 (69,265 tested) 101 dead on the 1st.  CFR 1.30%
9,008 (80,356 tested) 144 dead on the 2nd.  CFR 1.60%
10,268 (95,835 tested) 170 dead on the 3rd.  CFR 1.66%
11,545 (107,313 tested) 195 dead on the 4th.  CFR 1.69%
12,350 (116,898 tested) 221 dead on the 5th.  CFR 1.79%  First day since this started that there weren't more new cases than the day before.  Taking more than five days to double now.
13,629 (126,048 tested) 254 dead on the 6th.  CFR 1.86%
14,747 (138,618 tested) 296 dead on the 7th.  CFR 2.01%  Six days to double now.
15,698 (144,570 tested) 323 dead on the 8th.  CFR 2.06%.
16,826 (156,852 tested) 371 dead on the 9th.  CFR 2.2%.
17,968 (165,686 tested) 411 dead on the 10th.  CFR 2.33%
18,986 (173,187 tested) 446 dead on the 11th.  CFR 2.35%
19,895 (185,520 tested) 461 dead on the 12th.  CFR 2.32%
21,019 (201,005 tested) 499 dead on the 13th.  CFR 2.37%

Rate of increase is (give or take) 5-6% a day.  Not great, not horrible.  Still tracking at about 10±1% of those tested.  There's a definite bias in the selection criteria for how we're determining who has it.

21,628 (205,413 tested) 571 dead on the 14th.  CFR 2.64%  Good day for new cases, bad for deaths.
22,519 (215,158 tested) 614 dead on the 15th.  CFR 2.73%
23,340 (225,736 tested) 668 dead on the 16th.  CFR 2.86%
24,753 (241,913 tested) 726 dead on the 17th.  CFR 2.93%
25,492 (253,183 tested) 748 dead on the 18th.  CFR 2.93%
26,314 (262,495 tested) 774 dead on the 19th.  CFR 2.94%
27,058 (273,552 tested) 823 dead on the 20th.  CFR 3.04%
27,869 (284,206 tested) 867 dead on the 21st.  CFR 3.11%
28,576 (290,476 tested) 927 dead on the 22nd.  CFR 3.24% I think we're getting close to the third peak on deaths and it going down from here if it matches the same curve as the confirmed infections.
29,648 (303,050 tested) 987 dead on the 23rd.  CFR 3.33%
30,533 (320,984 tested) 1,046 dead on the 24th.  CFR 3.43%
30,839 (334,974 tested) 1,055 dead on the 25th.  CFR 3.42%  No evening update at time of posting.
31,528 (346,365 tested) 1,074 dead on the 26th.  CFR 3.41%
32,138 (358,127 tested) 1,088 dead on the 27th.  CFR 3.39%  The number of new dead has dropped precipitously, fingers crossed that this is a trend!
32,846 (368.651 tested) 1,171 dead on the 28th.  CFR 3.57%  Still hoping for a downward trend and this is a blip.
33,193 (375,300 tested) 1,218 dead on the 29th.  CFR 3.67%  New cases are way down.  Deaths are not following the same curve as infections.
33,690 (384,153 tested) 1,268 dead on the 30th.  CFR 3.76%
34,728 (404,467 tested) 1,314 dead on May 1st.  CFR 3.78%  Big jump in testing, big jump in cases.  Corresponds to a couple of counties opening up testing to any resident who wants tested?  Dunno.
35,463 (417,762 tested) 1,364 dead on May 2nd.  CFR 3.85%
36,078 (429,970 tested) 1,379 dead on May 3rd.  CFR 3.82%
36,897 (445,995 tested) 1,399 dead on May 4th.  CFR 3.79%
37,439 (467,553 tested) 1,471 dead on May 5th.  CFR 3.93%
38,002 (482,005 tested) 1,539 dead on May 6th.  CFR 4.05%
38,828 (495,075 tested) 1,600 dead on May 7th.  CFR 4.12%
39,199 (514,017 tested) 1,669 dead on May 8th.  CFR 4.26%
40,001 (529,865 tested) 1,715 dead on May 9th.  CRF 4.29%
40,596 (539,630 tested) 1,721 dead on May 10th.  CRF 4.24%
40,982 (561,741 tested) 1,735 dead on May 11th.  CRF 4.23%
41,923 (580,316 tested) 1,779 dead on May 12th.  CFR 4.24%
42,402 (585,478 tested) 1,827 dead on May 13th.  CFR 4.31%
43,210 (609,574 tested) 1,875 dead on May 14th.  CFR 4.34%
44,138 (629,461 tested) 1,917 dead on May 15th.  CFR 4.34%
44,811 (630,795 tested) 1,964 dead on May 16th.  CFR 4.38%
45,588 (635,081 tested) 1,973 dead on May 17th.  CFR 4.33%
46,442 (677,710 tested) 1,997 dead on May 18th.  CFR 4.3%
46,994 (717,162 tested) 2,052 dead on May 19th.  CFR 4.37%
47,471 (772,669 tested) 2,096 dead on May 20th.  CFR 4.42%
48,675 (815,584 tested) 2,144 dead on May 21st.  CFR 4.4%
49,451 (837,132 tested) 2,190 dead on May 22nd.  CFR 4.43%
50,127 (858,112 tested) 2,232 dead on May 23rd.  CFR 4.45%
50,867 (872,916 tested) 2,237 dead on May 24th.  CFR 4.4%
51,746 (909,928 tested) 2,252 dead on May 25th.  CFR 4.35%
52,170 (924,920 tested) 2,259 dead on May 26th.  CFR 4.33%
52,634 (935,271 tested) 2,319 dead on May 27th.  CFR 4.41%
53,285 (953,321 tested) 2,364 dead on May 28th.  CFR 4.44%
54,497 (984,160 tested) 2,413 dead on May 29th.  CFR 4.43%
55,424 (995,886 tested) 2,447 dead on May 30th.  CFR 4.42%
56,163 (1,022,265 tested) 2,451 dead on May 31st.  CFR 4.36%
56,580 (1,041,318 tested) 2,460 dead on June 1st.  CFR 4.33%

The tiny numbers mean that the CFR will see seemingly significant swings which really aren't significant. 

Huzzah.

This post gets bumped to the top twice a day as new numbers are published.

An interesting, and dense, report that the CFR for Wuhan might be as low as 1.4% and not the widely reported 4.5%.  If that's true then Florida is doing pretty well even with the presently diagnosed cases.

Not doing so great with the CFR as more and more people are croaking and fewer new cases appear daily...

May 9, 2020:
The high CFR is apparently because Florida is God's waiting room and several of the spikes in the daily death count are from huge portions of rest home populations all going about the same time.  So much for no-visitation and social distancing.

May 11, 2020:
Fully one third to one half of all Wu Ping Cough deaths in Florida are in nursing homes!  That will explain the high CFR. 

May 20, 2020:
Testing is way up, but the number of new cases isn't much higher than before.  The number of new deaths per day seems to be fairly steady too.  Interestingly, neither new cases or new deaths per day is much changed from before we started to open back up.  That too is consistent with the disease being silently out there for longer than the official March 1st discovery.  I know of at least two people who were sicker than hammered shit in January and February and both were tested negative for the flu.  They got by on fluids, over the counter cold meds and rest.  If it was Wu Ping, how many people did they interact with while contagious in the time before they started feeling it?

June 1, 2020:
I think we can put a feather in this cap and stop updating this post daily.  With the riots going on, if there isn't a massive jump in cases from Anitfa spreading it to each other, this epidemic is over.