30 April 2020

Rate Of Increase

Since the media is so damn focused on the increase in numbers maybe we should look at the daily rate.

77 on March 14th.  I didn't get the daily count before this date.
100 on the 15th. 29.9% increase
149 on the 16th.  49% increase
216 on the 17th. 45% increase
328 on the 18th.  75.9% increase
432 on the 19th.  31.7% increase
563 on the 20th.  30.3% increase
763 on the 21st.  35.5% increase
1,007 on the 22nd.  32% increase
1,227 on the 23rd.  21.8% increase
1,467 on the 24th.  19.6% increase
1,977 on the 25th.  34.8% increase
2,484 on the 26th.  25.6% increase
3,198 on the 27th.  28.7% increase
4,038 on the 28th.  26.3% increase
4,950 on the 29th.  22.6% increase
5,704 on the 30th.  15.2% increase
6,741 on the 31st.  18.2% increase
7,773 on April 1st.  15.3% increase
9,008 on April 2nd.  15.9% increase
10,268 on April 3rd.  14% increase
11,545 on April 4th.  12.4% increase
12,350 on April 5th.  6.97% increase
13,629 on April 6th.  10.36% increase
14,747 on April 7th.  8.2% increase
15,698 on April 8th.  6.45% increase
16,826 on April 9th.  7.19% increase
17,968 on April 10th.  6.79% increase
18,986 on April 11th.  5.67% increase
19,895 on April 12th.  4.79% increase
21,019 on April 13th.  5.65% increase
21,628 on April 14th.  2.9% increase!!!
22,519 on April 15th.  4.12% increase
23,340 on April 16th.  3.65% increase
24,753 on April 17th.  6.05% increase
25,492 on April 18th.  2.99% increase
26,314 on April 19th.  3.22% increase
27,058 on April 20th.  2.83% increase
27,869 on April 21st.  3% increase
28,576 on April 22nd.  2.54% increase
29,648 on April 23rd.  3.75% increase
30,533 on April 24th.  2.99% increase
30,839 on April 25th.  1% increase.  There was no evening update today.
31,528 on April 26th.  2.23% increase.
32,183 on April 27th.  1.93% increase.
32,846 on April 28th.  2.2% increase.
33,193 on April 29th.  1.06% increase.
33,690 on April 30th.  1.5% increase
34,728 on May 1st.  3.08 % increase
35,463 on May 2nd.  2.12% increase
36,078 on May 3rd.  1.73% increase
36,879 on May 4th.  2.27% increase
37,439 on May 5th.  1.47% increase
38,002 on May 6th.  1.5% increase
38,828 on May 7th.  2.17% increase
39,199 on May 8th.  0.96% increase
40,001 on May 9th.  2.05% increase
40,596 on May 10th.  1.49% increase
40,982 on May 11th.  0.95% increase
41,923 on May 12th.  2.3% increase
42,402 on May 13th.  1.14% increase
43,210 on May 14th.  1.91% increase
44,138 on May 15th.  2.15% increase
44,811 on May 16th.  1.52% increase
45,588 on May 17th.  1.73% increase
46,442 on May 18th.  1.87% increase

What about deaths?

7 dead on March 17th.
8 dead on the 18th.  14.3% increase
9 dead on the 19th.  12.5% increase
11 dead on the 20th.  22.2% increase
12 dead on the 21st.  9.1% increase
13 dead on the 22nd.  8.3% increase
17 dead on the 23rd.  30.8% increase
20 dead on the 24th.  17.6% increase
23 dead on the 25th.  15% increase
29 dead on the 26th.  26.1% increase
46 dead on the 27th.  58.6% increase
56 dead on the 28th.  21.7% increase
60 dead on the 29th.  7.1% increase
71 dead on the 30th.  18.3% increase
85 dead on the 31st.  19.7% increase
101 dead on April 1st 18.8% increase
144 dead on April 2nd.  42.6% increase
170 dead on April 3rd.  18.1% increase
195 dead on April 4th.  14.7% increase
221 dead on April 5th.  13.3% increase
254 dead on April 6th.  14.93% increase
296 dead on April 7th.  16.54% increase
323 dead on April 8th.  9.12% increase -- Could this mark the peak?
371 dead on April 9th.  14.86% increase -- Guess not the peak yet...
411 dead on April 10th.  12.94% increase
446 dead on April 11th.  6.44% increase -- Going the right direction again.
461 dead on April 12th.  3.36% increase
499 dead on April 13th.  8.24% increase
571 dead on April 14th.  14.43% increase -- Yikes!  If the death rate is trailing the new cases rate by two weeks, this is the peak death point.  Fingers crossed.
614 dead on April 15th.  7.53% increase
668 dead on April 16th.  8.79% increase
726 dead on April 17th.  8.68% increase
748 dead on April 18th.  3.03% increase
774 dead on April 19th.  3.48% increase
823 dead on April 20th.  6.33% increase
867 dead on April 21st.  5.35% increase
927 dead on April 22nd.  6.92% increase
987 dead on April 23rd.  6.47% increase
1,046 dead on April 24th.  5.98% increase
1,055 dead on April 25th.  0.86% increase.  There was no evening update today.
1,074 dead on April 26th.  1.8% increase.
1,088 dead on April 27th.  1.3% increase.
1,171 dead on April 28th.  7.63% increase.  Yikes!  It had been declining.
1,218 dead on April 29th.  4.01% increase.
1,268 dead on April 30th.  4.11% increase
1,314 dead on May 1st.  3.63% increase
1,364 dead on May 2nd.  3.81% increase
1,379 dead on May 3rd.  1.1% increase
1,399 dead on May 4th.  1.45% increase
1,471 dead on May 5th.  5.15% increase
1,539 dead on May 6th.  4.62% increase
1,600 dead on May 7th.  3.96% increase
1,669 dead on May 8th.  4.31% increase
1,715 dead on May 9th.  2.76% increase
1,721 dead on May 10th.  0.36% increase
1,735 dead on May 11th.  0.81% increase
1,779 dead on May 12th.  2.54% increase
1,827 dead on May 13th.  2.7% increase.
1,875 dead on May 14th.  2.63% increase
1,917 dead on May 15th.  2.24% increase
1,964 dead on May 16th.  2.45% increase
1,973 dead on May 17th.  0.46% increase
1,997 dead on May 18th.  1.22% increase

Deaths are not showing any kind of pattern, but the rate of increase of infections is slowing.

Almost as if the loose restrictions in place the last three weeks have been doing some good.

If the daily percentage increase of new cases keeps falling we're past the corner and well on our way to the peak.

Fingers crossed.

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