19 April 2020

We're All Gonna Starve

Let me dip my toe into the impending gloom and doom about how there's going to be no food soon.

Probably not.

There is reduced demand in the restaurant supply chains and an increased demand in supermarket supply chains.

While the demand for meals is unchanged, the amount of food needed per meal on the supermarket side is lower than the restaurant side.

How do I know this?  I used to help my live-in girlfriend run a cafeteria.

Restaurants waste a lot more food than individuals cooking at home.

At home you can use something that's expired but still wholesome.  A restaurant has to throw that shit out.

At home if you bungle up the preparation slightly you normally just eat it anyway (and sometimes discover a new recipe).  A restaurant has to toss the entire entree and start over.

When buying for home you know exactly how many people are going to show up and when they're going to be eating so you can tailor the amount of food brought out of storage and prepped for cooking with minimal waste.  A restaurant has to guess how many people are going to show up and when; and if too few show they have to toss the prepped ingredients in many cases.

A draw-down in food suppliers doesn't mean there isn't enough food to meet demand.

But spreading panic about a shortage will make food go like toilet paper did.


  1. Don't forget all the other institutions that are closed AND farmers are gonna farm :)

  2. Can't wait to see what the meat counter looks like tomorrow after a weekend of the media beating "Meat Shortages! Short Meat!!!"

    It's gonna suck. I can say that right now. Suck most fulsomely.

    As it is, I am getting tired of the shortages of ass-paper.

  3. They need a fresh panic to drive ratings. Considering how far out the supply chain I am, seeing partially stocked toilet paper and some hand sanitizer in Safeway is a sign we are over the hump. Heck, Bi-Mart even had 9 mm ammunition for a reasonable price.

  4. Yes we farmers are. But when the packing plant closes for how long? Because either some are testing/sick, or refuse to go to work BECAUSE some are testing/sick? My cull cows go to a sale barn or straight to a packer. What if they shut down? The one thing that is still holding in this period is price for hamburger cows. I can agree with your observation Angus. But it doesn't do anyone good when it's CLOSED.


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