29 April 2020

Extrapolation

There have been several studies done that show that far more people have been infected than was previously thought.

One in the UK that said that only 12% of cases were being detected.

Extrapolating to Florida: 309,801people (1.44% of the population) have had it giving an IFR of 0.393%.

San Fransisco came up with antibody test that showed that there were 85 times as many people with the infection than had previously been found.

Extrapolating to Florida: 2,821,405 people (13.15% of the population) have it, giving an IFR of 0.043%

New York figured that 13.9% of their population had the disease.

Extrapolating to Florida: 2,981,235 people and an IFR of 0.041%

Notice that San Fran and NY have very similar numbers for the percentage who catch it?

17% of the population of Diamond Princess caught it under nearly worst case conditions for avoiding it.

14.6% of Theodore Roosevelt got it.

I'm not going to extrapolate from the ship cases.

There's a similarity to those percentages that makes me think we're way undercounting because we're just testing those who have symptoms.

2 comments:

  1. There's a similarity to those percentages that makes me think we're way undercounting because we're just testing those who have symptoms. For sure. Then consider the other side of the fatality rates, the actual fatalities. I trust that number as far as I can throw the team that put it together. When they started including anyone who had the virus (death with the virus and not just from the virus) the numbers were headed for the dumpster. Still, that was sort of understandable; maybe someone over 80 or someone with cancer was likely going to die anyway but would have made it another year without the virus pushing them. It's just gotten worse from there, though.

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  2. O. M. G! It's almost like.. they're lying to us to generate a panic. But that's Alex Jones crazy talk.


    (I love it that in such a horrid health crisis in NYC, some hospitals in NYC are firing and furloughing staff because their hospitals are underutilized and not generating any funds... Some health crisis.)

    ReplyDelete

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