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I've been recording the daily Wu Ping Cough numbers in a spreadsheet since they started publishing daily number.
Something that Florida has not bothered tracking is recoveries.
I've created something of a proxy for it.
Not very precise, but a ballpark.
It runs its course in 2-3 weeks, so I've taken the running total of cases, minus the running total of deaths then subtract the running total of cases from three weeks ago to get a ball park of active cases.
I figure that everyone who had it three weeks ago either got better or died.
It's illuminating considering the media and the state are blasting that there's 714,591 cases.
If you remove all the deaths and cases older than three weeks we drop to 38,392 people still sick who've been tested and found positive.
The peak active cases using my (admittedly) inaccurate speculation was at the end of July with 219,392. That was when the running total was 470,386 positive tests.
38,000 infected, but how many are actually sick? 380? Cases generally aren't sick, just nominally infected.
ReplyDeleteAlmost 39k still actively infected is probably too high since I give a 3-week course for the disease when 2-weeks is the average.
DeleteTesting is still mostly voluntary in Florida and these are the positives from someone who either feels sick and got tested or someone who's so worried about being infected they got tested without symptoms.
Over and over it's been reported that most people don't have symptoms, I'll bet they don't bother to get tested either.
So the number of people who're positive is both higher and lower than what I've stated here.
And it makes what we did to avoid it even stupider in hindsight than it was while we were doing it.