Doing The Math

Florida is reporting a bit of a surge in new Wu Ping Cough cases.

Florida does not track recoveries, so how many of the 790,426 people who've tested positive since March first are still sick?  How many of the 48,722 hospitalized since April sixth are still there?

Rice Rabies takes 2-3 weeks to run its course completely, on average, so we'll just say by 21 days the patient is done.

For number of active cases we're going to take the current total, minus the total from 21 days ago then subtract the number of dead.

That's 47,842 people max who are actively sick who've been tested positive.

For the number of people hospitalized it's simply subtracting the 21 days ago number from the current one.

3,239 people, at the most, are still in the hospital.

I say 'max' and 'at the most' because most people shed this with little to no symptoms in two weeks.

Most people who go into the hospital with it either leave in a week, or leave feet first.

The same math also lets us track when the number of cases peaked.  

July 27, 2020 was peak COVID in Florida with, at most, 213,022 active cases.

Hospitalization peaked on August 15, 2020 with, at most, 9,597 patients.

What was that whole thing about flattening the curve so hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed?

They weren't overwhelmed at 9,597; so they're not going to be worse with 3,239.

The number of people in the hospital has been riding pretty steady at 3,300 ± 200 the past month too.

By the way, that surge of new cases?  Achieved by doubling or tripling the number of tests.  The percentage of new cases against new tests has fallen.  5.48% with today's 75,067 tests.

What was that whole thing about keeping the new cases below 10% of the new tests?

Based on the metrics they told us back in April for this being successfully contained and dealt with, we're there.

Hurray for Florida!