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Crude case fatality rate has dropped steadily since October 21 from 2.13% to 1.81%.
Crude case fatality rate peaked at 4.38% back in May. I say that, even though the highest it's been was 14.29% on the fifth day of the state publishing numbers.
The number of deaths is in dispute because there's still conflict between the idea of dying from COVID and dying with COVID. The state's numbers are all in the "with" column.
While they're getting huge numbers of new cases, it's taking equally huge numbers of tests to find them. The percentage of people getting tested because they are required to for work or to receive medical care is climbing. That means the people who're being tested because they feel sick or are actually worried they have it is dropping; still the majority though.
I've been keeping a back of the napkin calculation on what the number of active cases is by taking the current positives and subtracting the current positives from three weeks ago and the number of dead.
Even though Florida shows 1,058,074 positive tests, I "show" 149,033 active infections, at most, from that population. At most because 2-weeks is the more common answer to the course of the disease than 3-weeks.
I do similar math to the number of people hospitalized. Florida says that 56,457 people have been hospitalized (that's JUST the residents, they separate resident and non-resident). I "show" that only 4,438 are likely still hospitalized. This number is bolstered by the occasional statement from a politician mentioning the number of people currently hospitalized and it being very similar to my back of the napkin amount.
It must be stressed that we had close to 10,000 active cases in hospitals in August and the hospitals reported that they had lower than 60% capacity being used.
I believe the curve has done been flattened.
"Crude case fatality rate has dropped steadily since October 21 from 2.13% to 1.81%." Yeah, and that is without tyrannical lockdowns.
ReplyDeleteThe other item of purposeful confusion has to do with "infections" as opposed to actual "cases." They encourage people here in Kommiecticut to get tested regularly. There are people that get in line EVERY week for a test, even when they are not sick, and every positive test is counted in the daily numbers.
Kommiecticut doesn't just count raw numbers, they use a wacky percentage of 100,000 of population. My own small rural town has gone from orange alert to red and back again. Of course, the way it is being portrayed is that those people are sick with the deadly Chink-Bug, when they are most likely asymptomatic. Also there is no purpose to continually display the total numbers since March except to keep the sheeple in frightened compliance. I however, do not participate.