09 November 2019

Stat Bias

The more I look at the templates in GURPS: Special Ops 3e the more I see a suspension of disbelief killing flaw.

Skill levels in GURPS are based on DX and IQ for the most part, especially in GURPS 3e.

From what I've read and conversed about with regards to the special operator types the high skill levels displayed by these men is from spending many hours practicing; not from natural aptitude.

Points in skills represents hard work and training.

Points in stats represents talent and aptitude.

It is not helped that an IQ of 13 or 14 is often specified.

To lend some scope to the problem:  A GURPS IQ of 6 corresponds to the intelligence level of an average Chimpanzee, which has a functional (real world) IQ of approximately 40.

This puts the bottom range of the human bell-curve (IQ 40) at GURPS IQ 6.  That essentially puts the top of the curve (IQ 160) at GURPS IQ 14.

The center of the bell-curve and "normal" IQ is 90-109 and that's GURPS IQ 10.

If the templates are to be believed, the entirety of the world's special forces is populated by super geniuses.

I am not buying it.  Bumping the stats is a game mechanism to get higher skills for fewer points.

Another reason I am not buying it is how thin the population of these super geniuses with an IQ over 145 is.  1/10 of 1%.  The pool of people in this range, in the US, is 329,716.

There's approximately 3,500 Rangers in the 75th, 4,500 Green Berets, 2,500 SEALs and about 1,000 in Delta.  11,500 people.

That's 3.5% of the available super geniuses in the country.

The military is about 2.5 million people strong, 0.76% of the population.

Because the military typically does have the same distributions as the population at large, then we should expect that there are only 2,500 super geniuses in the entire military.

According to Special Ops 3e, there's almost four times that many in the special forces alone (and I didn't even include the numbers for USAF combat controllers or USMC Force Recon; whose templates are given).

I think I am going to have to revise these templates ruthlessly.

Especially since the bell curve is shifted in other nations compared to the US curve used here.

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