07 January 2021

CFR 1.57%

Properly expressed, that's a 0.0157 probability of dying from Wu Ping Cough in Florida.

If the CDC's estimate that only 6% of the deaths are from it directly instead of being a complicating factor with a co-morbidity the probability of death drops to 0.00094.  That's in line with flu epidemics which caused barely a ripple in the way people interacted.

Since the holidays, the percentage of new tests which have resulted in a positive result has increased from 8ish to 12ish percent, but deaths are cruising about the same as before.  This helps the CFR to fall.

3 comments:

  1. That 0.00094%? That's right up there with the deaths associated with another Corona Virus, known as....(drumroll please).... the COMMON COLD.

    So we shut down and destroyed this nation in order to become the United Socialist States of America.

    Check. Double Check.

    Mother copulators.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's P = 0.00094 not 0.00094%.

      It's CFR 0.094%

      Serious flu, not common cold.

      Delete
    2. Ah. Yeah. Still less worse locally than the Seasonal Flu of 2002.

      Delete

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