13 January 2021

Yet The Estimate Never Rises

 434 million firearms were made for private sale in past 25 years.

That's fascinating.

The reason it's fascinating is the estimates of how many firearms are held in private hands never increases.

They keep saying 300 million guns.

We keep saying that MUST be low.

Hognose did a great analysis, and Looserounds saved it from being lost forever.

The things last near forever and they're still making them by the, literal, truck load. 

I'd love to find out what percentage of guns made since 2004 have been semiautomatic and have larger than 10-round magazines.

The AWB didn't slow down semi-auto pistol production one whit and compliant rifles abounded.

I do know that prior to the AWB I had to scour shops to find an AR or AK style gun in Iowa.  In fact, to get an FAL I had to make one from an Entreprise receiver and a British L1A1 parts kit and after the ban I had to special order the (ban compliant) Daewoo DR-200.  After the ban lifted, they were everywhere!

We were once the weirdos with our big magazines in our Mini-14's (because at one time a Mini was way cheaper than an AR) at the range.

I don't think I've been to the range in years without seeing someone else there with at least one.

Why am I going on and on about this?

Common use.

I cannot remember the case, but we have a ruling that decided that common use was as few as 10,000 (100,000? if someone can find this case I could quote it) knives of a certain kind were protected by common use; we've got millions of AR's out there.

Note: when there's millions of something and literally fewer than a handful used in crime: that something isn't a problem.

The rulings are generally in our favor, if we could just get standing and certiorari...


  1. I know some small percentage of the guns made in the US get exported, but I don't know how many. It might be possible to find out how many are exported, but we also import from other countries like Croatia, Turkey, the Philippines and many other places. It seems like a reasonable first guess to say there were more imports than exports, so that the 434 million guns in 25 years is less than what we really added in 25 years.

    Chances are if you plot the number of guns per year you won't find a nearly straight line. You'd probably see some sort of curve that bends up, so the average isn't 434/25 but it would be a wild assed guess to pick a number. Bottom line is that it's hard to know how many guns were added to the national number being held, but it's more than that 434 million.

    Don't forget that Hognose's estimate of up to 660 million is four years old. That alone would put the current numbers up about another 70-75 million.

    1. I am sure our exports are offset by the number of imports due to the demand and everybody wants to make a profit so sell them in one of the few or only countries that allows it. France, sorry no. England, sorry no, Australia, sorry no, Canada, sorry no, China, hell yeah, oh sorry no just wanted to make you laugh. Slovakian countries, sorry no. Russia, sorry I don't know. Italy, sorry no.
      WOW who does that leave for all the guns manufactured globally? There may be 3 or 4 behind every blade of grass by now.

    2. The US hardly exports civilian arms and we import a lot more than we export. Military exports are not counted in the ATF totals.

  2. And so? Common usage means nothing to them. Same with anything they don't want us normies to have.

    Gas cars that are still more efficient than electrics? No, we can't have them. Never mind that the infrastructure can't support many more electric vehicles.

    As to numbers of guns in private hands, legal or otherwise, I've been thinking it's around 600 million, maybe 800 million. Or more. We just don't know.

    Like, how many war trophies were brought back since we started getting involved in foreign wars. I mean, Spanish Mausers, Russian Moisin Nagants, all sorts of stuff from WWI and WWII and the Korean War and even Vietnam. And scores of little things here and there. Like from fighting the Moros, or various banana republics.

    And illegally imported after each successive anti-gun legislation? Who the heck knows?

    I mean, I've heard of people using ammo from pre WWI times. I know people who still shoot their ancestors' lever actions, or trapdoors.

    If we gunnies have no earthly idea, what do the anti-gunners think? (If, that is, they think at all, rather than just parroting words from their masters.)

  3. Are they going to require a license to own a mill or a lathe? Is metal stock going to require licensing and registration to buy?

    Obviously most liberals know little to no history. Like how blacksmiths made firearms in the 1700's and 1800's and during WWII how tiny shops all over the UK made things like Stens with makeshift tooling from whatever materials they could find. Or how to this very day blacksmiths make AKs essentially by hand in places like the border areas between the Stans. Bans will just grow the black market.

    1. The BATFE already believes it. Own machine tools and let someone see you work on your own guns? Well, the BATFE will gladly accept the tip about constructive intent.

      Got machine tools and a 'friend' wants you to do some fixing for them? Walk away, quickly away. People have been jammed up for doing simple repairs.

      Make a simple part and not know it's a sear for an auto-conversion for a popular semi-auto weapon? You have no idea what it is, totally no idea. Yet the BATFE assumes you are at fault, instant loss of business, and years in Federal prison.

  4. Hello! I am a new visitor linking over here via the raconteur report. It just crossed my mind - how many “exports” crossed our southern borders during fast & furious? (Ok, probably not THAT many?)

    1. It's not the maybe thousands of guns that went south that is disturbing. It's the numbers of guns that make their way north. That and the Government set up private individuals to take the hit for what the Government was doing.

  5. Been to a sporting goods store lately? Fucking shelves are empty, guns and ammo. Keep counting motherfuckers.

  6. It's amazing, the number of guns that get lost in boating accidents...

  7. Big if, and no, we'll never get standing...


You are a guest here when you comment. Be polite. Inappropriate comments will be deleted without mention. Amnesty period is expired.

Do not go off on a tangent, stay with the topic of the post. If I can't tell what your point is in the first couple of sentences I'm flushing it.

If you're trying to comment anonymously: Sign your work.

Anonymous comments must pass a higher bar than others. Repeat offenders must pass an even higher bar.

If you can't comprehend this, don't comment; because I'm going to moderate and mock you for wasting your time.