02 April 2020

It Adds Up Fast

Assuming the current rate of increase in cases and death holds at the last daily step.

15.31% for infections and 18.82% for deaths.

Starting with 7,773 infections today we end up with 557,953 people infected by May 1st.
Starting with 101 dead people today we end up with 17,824 dead by May 1st.

That's a case fatality rate of 3.19%.  I don't think that's going to be right.

The CFR is bopping around in the low 1.x% range.  The average of all daily CFR for the past 16 days is 1.59% and that gives us a less frightening 8,871 deaths on May 1st.

The rate of increase for new infections is also coming down, so there might not even be half a million people with the disease by then.

So far, the numbers are helping my optimism.

Fingers crossed!
Posted by Angus McThag at 00:35
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1 comment:

  1. Beans02 April, 2020 02:24

    Just going by the Flu Cruise figures, there's a lot less deaths than the media or experts are saying there will be.

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