23 April 2020

Still Sciencing

Infection rate in New York might be as high as 13.9% statewide.

What's really interesting about this is how it coincides with Princess Diamond and Teddy Roosevelt.

And another fact claim of Aesop is refuted.  "If the rosiest wild estimates of unvetted tests and peer-unreviewed surveys, using statistically invalid samples are correct, SARS-CoV-2 has penetrated, at most, about 4% of the U.S. population."

A 13.9% infection rate applied to the population of Florida gives an infection fatality rate of 0.031% from yesterday's fatalities.

Machts Nichts!

Definitely not worth the economic impact.

Also, the CFR is a nearly meaningless statistic.  Someone who leads with that number is sowing panic.

Remember, H5N1 has a 52% CFR.


If we take the 21.2% of NYC being infected as a given and a population of 8,398,748 that means that 1,780,535 people are infected.

10,290 are dead and confirmed to have had the infection, 5,121 dead were probably infected.

Adding them together gives a worse number than just confirmed cases, so we're using that.

141,754 have been tested and reported to have the disease, an infection rate of just 1.69%

That gives a CFR of 10.87%  That's a terrifying number!

With an infection rate of 21.2%, however, the IFR is 0.87%.  Much higher than ROSF, but not terrifying.

Update 2:

It's also been reported that NYFC is padding their death numbers and while many have died with the infection, it's not clear how many have died from the infection.  Like Italy.

1 comment:

  1. Fear. And more fear, means more government. The Swamp elite love when The People are afraid.
    Many worse viruses have encompassed the globe even just in the past several decades and we lost no rights, did not shut down our economy, and then leave the bill for our ‘rescue’ for our posterity to pay.
    This virus scare is a dream come true for the Leftists and their power/money grabs over The People.
    The People who fought and risked probabilities of death far higher than some small fraction of one percent and paid the ultimate price to defend our freedom and our lives are spinning in their hallowed graves.
    We must get our rights back and start working again else we will leave our posterity only a massive, dream-breaking debt.


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