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The more I try to figure out what's actually going on in Ukraine, the less convinced I am that one can.
The quality of the information is poor from both sides, and they are obviously biased in favor of their own position.
If any given source is correct, then this war should have ended months ago.
The only thing I think is certain is that Russia did not expect this to be as hard as it has ended up being.
When they invaded, I figured that they'd have walked over Ukraine as fast as we'd done Iraq.
At the time, I considered the Russian military a professional, organized and modern combined arms force.
It doesn't appear to have ever been that good.
Their obvious losses say a lot about that.
But Ukraine is stretched thin and they're hanging on by a damn thread even if they're giving a good account of themselves.
In a war of attrition, numbers matter and they don't have them.
They might have local superiority, but don't have overall.
What will matter is Putin. The exits are his winning, his quitting or him being removed from power.
I don't see him quitting or stepping down.
I don't think Russia invading and then making Ukraine a puppet state is a good thing, and I can certainly see Poland and Finland being terrified of Russia getting away with that.
I am also a bit scared that preventing Russia from making Ukraine a puppet state is going to drag our asses into a nuclear war; I'm getting really pissed at our leaders ham-fisted bullshit wrecking our economies over it.
Russia expected Ukraine to roll over and play dead like Uke did when Russia invaded Ukraine and took over the Crimea. Russia expected Ukraine to roll over like when they soft-invaded Eastern Ukraine with Russian citizens and then had the new Ukrainian citizens vote to leave Uke and become part of Russia, or a separate puppet state of Russia.
ReplyDeleteRussia expected the weak, poorly trained, poorly equipped and very corrupt Ukrainian military that they met every time Russia has invaded Ukraine.
Well, surprise, surprise surprise. The new corrupt Ukrainian government isn't the old corrupt Ukrainian government, and the new military isn't the old corrupt military. And the Ukrainian people are no longer subjects of a corrupt government with no say at all in their governance, but are now actually citizens with a corrupt government who they get to actually elect and kick out depending on how overtly and negatively corrupt said new government is.
In other words, it's Eastern Europe.
It is not surprising that the Ukrainians are resisting. What nobody knew is that the Ukrainians had actually cleaned up their military and trained their people. Plus, there's something to be said for defense of the homeland.
To top it all off, how long can Russia's vaunted military surplus last? Already they're using Nork artillery munitions, which are almost as good as those 40 year old stockpiles of munitions that go 'boom' in the tube. And Russia is suddenly having to reactivate old, outdated, stored and ignored tanks, guns, planes, trucks, rifles (seems they sold all the good ones to surplus houses in... the US of A and are left with rusted and junked and rusted junked rifles.) Same with rifle and pistol ammo, lots of the good stuff got sold to the USA. Same with optics, and body armor, and all the basic components of a soldier's kit, good stuff sold to surplus houses and moldy oldy stuff left on shelves and now all of it is being pulled out for use in the Uke.
So how long before Communist China just walks across the border into Siberia? Since their attempted expansion southwestwardly into India is being resisted, and last time things got froggy the Indian Army literally bitch-slapped the ChiComs back onto ChiCom territory. Like serious hand-to-hand bitch-slapping like you see in Bollywood movies. Bitch-slap-fu wins over Kung-fu any day.
The lack of any credible information on this is the most concerning part for me... The Ukraine went from being acknowledged as the most corrupt country on the planet to being governed by saints in an instant when Russia invaded. Piles of money are just disappearing with at least some of it being laundered back to US politicians... At least some of the Russian complaints that caused the invasion seem to be correct (US interference installing an unfriendly government, NATO expansion and actual Nazis on their border) and of course the Ukrainians (the people, not the politicians in charge) are quite justified in resisting Russian aggression... All that and I'm not really seeing where the US has any real interest in the Ukraine... Well, other than those who seem to have family installed in high paying jobs in the petroleum industry there :-)... But just my mostly uninformed thoughts of course. Yes, I really expected the Russians to move in quickly and do what they intended to and get out... NOT as quickly as the western armies have become accustomed to fighting, I always thought the Russians were a bit more comfortable being methodical and using artillery to erase "problems".... Not sure anyone thought this would last as long as it has and at this point not seeing any good outs for either side...
ReplyDeleteYes, we dicked around in Ukraine before the invasion, but Russia's had, what 5 invasions and military actions since the 1990s against Ukraine? Crimea isn't the only time Big Russia has tried to muscle it's way into Ukraine and basically gotten away with it. This time there's a FAFO level that hasn't been seen since, well, WWII and that quaint fight between national and international socialists (which we should never have gotten involved in supporting the international socialists, but FDR and the State Department at that time loved them some international socialists, so, well, has Mother Russia ever paid back its lend-lease bill? (answer: No, not it hasn't, bill's still there, waiting for someone to pay it.)
DeleteNo quibble with a single word in that post, nor Beans' comments, except to say this:
ReplyDeleteSooner or later, Putin's underlings are going to have an epiphany, and the Makarov Retirement Ceremony will occur. Vlad, de rigueur, will be the last one in Moscow to find out.
I don't believe what msm is putting out for sure...I think Russia sent in the b troops and that's why they didn't kick ass as much as they should have.. he had to worry about nato doing something stupid and that's why he didn't fully commit .. my 2 cents... panzer guy
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