Since the media is so damn focused on the increase in numbers maybe we should look at the daily rate.
77 on March 14th. I didn't get the daily count before this date.
100 on the 15th. 29.9% increase
149 on the 16th. 49% increase
216 on the 17th. 45% increase
328 on the 18th. 75.9% increase
432 on the 19th. 31.7% increase
563 on the 20th. 30.3% increase
763 on the 21st. 35.5% increase
1,007 on the 22nd. 32% increase
1,227 on the 23rd. 21.8% increase
1,467 on the 24th. 19.6% increase
1,977 on the 25th. 34.8% increase
2,484 on the 26th. 25.6% increase
3,198 on the 27th. 28.7% increase
4,038 on the 28th. 26.3% increase
4,950 on the 29th. 22.6% increase
5,704 on the 30th. 15.2% increase
6,741 on the 31st. 18.2% increase
7,773 on April 1st. 15.3% increase
9,008 on April 2nd. 15.9% increase
10,268 on April 3rd. 14% increase
11,545 on April 4th. 12.4% increase
12,350 on April 5th. 6.97% increase
13,629 on April 6th. 10.36% increase
14,747 on April 7th. 8.2% increase
15,698 on April 8th. 6.45% increase
16,826 on April 9th. 7.19% increase
17,968 on April 10th. 6.79% increase
18,986 on April 11th. 5.67% increase
19,895 on April 12th. 4.79% increase
21,019 on April 13th. 5.65% increase
21,628 on April 14th. 2.9% increase!!!
22,519 on April 15th. 4.12% increase
23,340 on April 16th. 3.65% increase
24,753 on April 17th. 6.05% increase
25,492 on April 18th. 2.99% increase
26,314 on April 19th. 3.22% increase
27,058 on April 20th. 2.83% increase
27,869 on April 21st. 3% increase
28,576 on April 22nd. 2.54% increase
29,648 on April 23rd. 3.75% increase
30,533 on April 24th. 2.99% increase
30,839 on April 25th. 1% increase. There was no evening update today.
31,528 on April 26th. 2.23% increase.
32,183 on April 27th. 1.93% increase.
32,846 on April 28th. 2.2% increase.
33,193 on April 29th. 1.06% increase.
33,690 on April 30th. 1.5% increase
34,728 on May 1st. 3.08 % increase
35,463 on May 2nd. 2.12% increase
36,078 on May 3rd. 1.73% increase
36,879 on May 4th. 2.27% increase
37,439 on May 5th. 1.47% increase
38,002 on May 6th. 1.5% increase
38,828 on May 7th. 2.17% increase
39,199 on May 8th. 0.96% increase
40,001 on May 9th. 2.05% increase
40,596 on May 10th. 1.49% increase
40,982 on May 11th. 0.95% increase
41,923 on May 12th. 2.3% increase
42,402 on May 13th. 1.14% increase
43,210 on May 14th. 1.91% increase
44,138 on May 15th. 2.15% increase
44,811 on May 16th. 1.52% increase
45,588 on May 17th. 1.73% increase
46,442 on May 18th. 1.87% increase
What about deaths?
7 dead on March 17th.
8 dead on the 18th. 14.3% increase
9 dead on the 19th. 12.5% increase
11 dead on the 20th. 22.2% increase
12 dead on the 21st. 9.1% increase
13 dead on the 22nd. 8.3% increase
17 dead on the 23rd. 30.8% increase
20 dead on the 24th. 17.6% increase
23 dead on the 25th. 15% increase
29 dead on the 26th. 26.1% increase
46 dead on the 27th. 58.6% increase
56 dead on the 28th. 21.7% increase
60 dead on the 29th. 7.1% increase
71 dead on the 30th. 18.3% increase
85 dead on the 31st. 19.7% increase
101 dead on April 1st 18.8% increase
144 dead on April 2nd. 42.6% increase
170 dead on April 3rd. 18.1% increase
195 dead on April 4th. 14.7% increase
221 dead on April 5th. 13.3% increase
254 dead on April 6th. 14.93% increase
296 dead on April 7th. 16.54% increase
323 dead on April 8th. 9.12% increase -- Could this mark the peak?
371 dead on April 9th. 14.86% increase -- Guess not the peak yet...
411 dead on April 10th. 12.94% increase
446 dead on April 11th. 6.44% increase -- Going the right direction again.
461 dead on April 12th. 3.36% increase
499 dead on April 13th. 8.24% increase
571 dead on April 14th. 14.43% increase -- Yikes! If the death rate is trailing the new cases rate by two weeks, this is the peak death point. Fingers crossed.
614 dead on April 15th. 7.53% increase
668 dead on April 16th. 8.79% increase
726 dead on April 17th. 8.68% increase
748 dead on April 18th. 3.03% increase
774 dead on April 19th. 3.48% increase
823 dead on April 20th. 6.33% increase
867 dead on April 21st. 5.35% increase
927 dead on April 22nd. 6.92% increase
987 dead on April 23rd. 6.47% increase
1,046 dead on April 24th. 5.98% increase
1,055 dead on April 25th. 0.86% increase. There was no evening update today.
1,074 dead on April 26th. 1.8% increase.
1,088 dead on April 27th. 1.3% increase.
1,171 dead on April 28th. 7.63% increase. Yikes! It had been declining.
1,218 dead on April 29th. 4.01% increase.
1,268 dead on April 30th. 4.11% increase
1,314 dead on May 1st. 3.63% increase
1,364 dead on May 2nd. 3.81% increase
1,379 dead on May 3rd. 1.1% increase
1,399 dead on May 4th. 1.45% increase
1,471 dead on May 5th. 5.15% increase
1,539 dead on May 6th. 4.62% increase
1,600 dead on May 7th. 3.96% increase
1,669 dead on May 8th. 4.31% increase
1,715 dead on May 9th. 2.76% increase
1,721 dead on May 10th. 0.36% increase
1,735 dead on May 11th. 0.81% increase
1,779 dead on May 12th. 2.54% increase
1,827 dead on May 13th. 2.7% increase.
1,875 dead on May 14th. 2.63% increase
1,917 dead on May 15th. 2.24% increase
1,964 dead on May 16th. 2.45% increase
1,973 dead on May 17th. 0.46% increase
1,997 dead on May 18th. 1.22% increase
Deaths are not showing any kind of pattern, but the rate of increase of infections is slowing.
Almost as if the loose restrictions in place the last three weeks have been doing some good.
If the daily percentage increase of new cases keeps falling we're past the corner and well on our way to the peak.
Fingers crossed.
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30 April 2020
As Always
Lose your job?
Can't get Florida's unemployment compensation website to work?
Join the class action suit!
Get $20 a year from now.
Help buy a lawyer a new Bugatti.
Can't get Florida's unemployment compensation website to work?
Join the class action suit!
Get $20 a year from now.
Help buy a lawyer a new Bugatti.
29 April 2020
Thanks Obama?
Mother In Law has a robo-shoulder that was installed at the beginning of the year.
She's been doing the at-home therapy and with the safer at home orders, she has been unable to transition to the out-patient at the clinic physical therapy.
The specialist approved more at home therapy and the therapist to administer it because they don't want her to back slide waiting for the in-house stuff.
Her insurance called today to say it was not approved.
Why?
Because the insurance drone called her primary doctor and asked if he'd approved of the extension and he said that he had no knowledge of it.
Neither her primary care doc or the drone noticed the entirely different doctor's name and signature on the request...
It will be straightened out, but it shouldn't be on us to make sure that it is.
She's been doing the at-home therapy and with the safer at home orders, she has been unable to transition to the out-patient at the clinic physical therapy.
The specialist approved more at home therapy and the therapist to administer it because they don't want her to back slide waiting for the in-house stuff.
Her insurance called today to say it was not approved.
Why?
Because the insurance drone called her primary doctor and asked if he'd approved of the extension and he said that he had no knowledge of it.
Neither her primary care doc or the drone noticed the entirely different doctor's name and signature on the request...
It will be straightened out, but it shouldn't be on us to make sure that it is.
On Those Saber Hangers
I got an M1904 enlisted hanger because it was available and I was enlisted... The officer model has metal "dog leash" clips instead of just being tabbed leather.
It differs from the period correct predecessor in that it's in natural leather instead of russet brown.
That model differs from its predecessor in being russet brown instead of black.
They're all simplifications of the original, and patented, design of JEB Stuart. Yes, THAT JEB Stuart.
There are many different hangers over the years too.
It differs from the period correct predecessor in that it's in natural leather instead of russet brown.
That model differs from its predecessor in being russet brown instead of black.
They're all simplifications of the original, and patented, design of JEB Stuart. Yes, THAT JEB Stuart.
There are many different hangers over the years too.
Siebenundsiebzigstes Regiment der Kavallerie
77th? Historically there were only 15 Cavalry Regiments in the regular US Army in 1899.
In 1882 Congress, while finally restoring funding to the military overall, also authorized the Army to form two additional cavalry regiments of a "new" model abandoning the de facto dragoon model that was already in place. Especially if units were to be going down the spook-hole to find and contact the finest light cavalry ever fielded.
The 16th was formed normally, but a clerk messed up the formation of the 17th.
He was a German immigrant and wrote his 'ones' the way he always had without thinking they resembled 'sevens', but had also just recently been broken of the habit of crossing his 'sevens' to distinguish them from the 'ones'.
By the time the error was caught, materiel had been ordered and manufactured from guidons to hat badges.
It became simpler to just have an out of sequence unit number than to insist on remaking everything to say 17th.
WF Fleetwood contributed greatly to this portion of the world-building.
In 1882 Congress, while finally restoring funding to the military overall, also authorized the Army to form two additional cavalry regiments of a "new" model abandoning the de facto dragoon model that was already in place. Especially if units were to be going down the spook-hole to find and contact the finest light cavalry ever fielded.
The 16th was formed normally, but a clerk messed up the formation of the 17th.
He was a German immigrant and wrote his 'ones' the way he always had without thinking they resembled 'sevens', but had also just recently been broken of the habit of crossing his 'sevens' to distinguish them from the 'ones'.
By the time the error was caught, materiel had been ordered and manufactured from guidons to hat badges.
It became simpler to just have an out of sequence unit number than to insist on remaking everything to say 17th.
WF Fleetwood contributed greatly to this portion of the world-building.
I-Did-Not-Know-That
In the 1890's the Army was actively shortening all of the M1873 Single Action Army revolvers from 7-1/2" barrels to the "artillery" length of 5-1/2".
They were also selling them off as surplus by the case lot.
I had always supposed the longer barrel Cavalry Model and the shorter Artillery Model were both issued at the same time from 1873.
Artillery is actually "altered model".
Sidearms for the 77th Cavalry is going to be a potpourri of choices.
They were also selling them off as surplus by the case lot.
I had always supposed the longer barrel Cavalry Model and the shorter Artillery Model were both issued at the same time from 1873.
Artillery is actually "altered model".
Sidearms for the 77th Cavalry is going to be a potpourri of choices.
Still Need A Saber
It's going on three years since I acquired a Horse Pistol.
My M1894 Mills pattern cavalry belt has a saber chape.
I now have a repop M1904 enlisted saber hanger to clip to that saber chape.
I have no saber.
"To Ebay!" I cry!
It appears that every single M1840 and M1860 saber made by Ames Manufacturing Company has survived to the present day. Nifty, but spendy.
Cold Steel used to make a replica of the M1860 light cavalry saber which is always labeled as a heavy saber. They also made an M1840 heavy saber. Much more affordable and are some of Windlass Cutlery's best work, they will actually work as swords! $230 to $300 depending on the seller.
Then there's the butter knives for $120 or so. They look the part from a distance, but aren't actually weapons.
Donations always, cheerfully, accepted.
This is such a damn conundrum. I also still need a hat! 7-3/8 size if you're feeling generous.
On of the silliest things about this sword is it's one of three I actually know how to use. I know a bit of Kenjitsu and the katana. I got pretty decent with a point-and-edge rapier when a friend decided to do a research project on a fencing manual he'd found in Italy. And thanks to doing a bit of reinacting, I know how to use, not just A cavalry saber, THIS cavalry saber.
I have a basket-hilted claymore, but other than being a fair hand with a cleaver, I claim no particular skill.
GURPS thinks that Melee Weapon - Broadsword covers both the basket hilt and a cavalry saber. Maybe, but I think they're different enough that familiarity penalties should apply.
My M1894 Mills pattern cavalry belt has a saber chape.
I now have a repop M1904 enlisted saber hanger to clip to that saber chape.
I have no saber.
"To Ebay!" I cry!
It appears that every single M1840 and M1860 saber made by Ames Manufacturing Company has survived to the present day. Nifty, but spendy.
Cold Steel used to make a replica of the M1860 light cavalry saber which is always labeled as a heavy saber. They also made an M1840 heavy saber. Much more affordable and are some of Windlass Cutlery's best work, they will actually work as swords! $230 to $300 depending on the seller.
Then there's the butter knives for $120 or so. They look the part from a distance, but aren't actually weapons.
Donations always, cheerfully, accepted.
This is such a damn conundrum. I also still need a hat! 7-3/8 size if you're feeling generous.
On of the silliest things about this sword is it's one of three I actually know how to use. I know a bit of Kenjitsu and the katana. I got pretty decent with a point-and-edge rapier when a friend decided to do a research project on a fencing manual he'd found in Italy. And thanks to doing a bit of reinacting, I know how to use, not just A cavalry saber, THIS cavalry saber.
I have a basket-hilted claymore, but other than being a fair hand with a cleaver, I claim no particular skill.
GURPS thinks that Melee Weapon - Broadsword covers both the basket hilt and a cavalry saber. Maybe, but I think they're different enough that familiarity penalties should apply.
Extrapolation
There have been several studies done that show that far more people have been infected than was previously thought.
One in the UK that said that only 12% of cases were being detected.
Extrapolating to Florida: 309,801people (1.44% of the population) have had it giving an IFR of 0.393%.
San Fransisco came up with antibody test that showed that there were 85 times as many people with the infection than had previously been found.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,821,405 people (13.15% of the population) have it, giving an IFR of 0.043%
New York figured that 13.9% of their population had the disease.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,981,235 people and an IFR of 0.041%
Notice that San Fran and NY have very similar numbers for the percentage who catch it?
17% of the population of Diamond Princess caught it under nearly worst case conditions for avoiding it.
14.6% of Theodore Roosevelt got it.
I'm not going to extrapolate from the ship cases.
There's a similarity to those percentages that makes me think we're way undercounting because we're just testing those who have symptoms.
One in the UK that said that only 12% of cases were being detected.
Extrapolating to Florida: 309,801people (1.44% of the population) have had it giving an IFR of 0.393%.
San Fransisco came up with antibody test that showed that there were 85 times as many people with the infection than had previously been found.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,821,405 people (13.15% of the population) have it, giving an IFR of 0.043%
New York figured that 13.9% of their population had the disease.
Extrapolating to Florida: 2,981,235 people and an IFR of 0.041%
Notice that San Fran and NY have very similar numbers for the percentage who catch it?
17% of the population of Diamond Princess caught it under nearly worst case conditions for avoiding it.
14.6% of Theodore Roosevelt got it.
I'm not going to extrapolate from the ship cases.
There's a similarity to those percentages that makes me think we're way undercounting because we're just testing those who have symptoms.
Ten More Chances For Disappointment
Supreme Court has a bunch of cases that they can deny cert to...
Or send back to lower courts to maintain status quo after the supplicants have expended thousands upon thousands of dollars just getting the case that far.
Or send back to lower courts to maintain status quo after the supplicants have expended thousands upon thousands of dollars just getting the case that far.
28 April 2020
Ye Goode Ship Parrot
Did all that work to fix the gun ports and forgot to take a pic of the whole ship last night.
Oversight corrected!
Obligatory Moon
For some reason I really love looking at and taking pictures of the moon in a blue sky.
I took this picture in manual mode and for some reason started looking for the exposure setting...
Duh.
While traipsing through the menus I found a setting titled, "Lens aberration correction."
When you select it, it displays what lens you're using at the time and gives you a list of on/off for:
Peripheral illum corr
Distortion correction
Digital Lens Optimizer
Chromatic aberr corr
Diffraction correction
I need to read up on what these setting do.
I am not yet to the point of shooting RAW.
 | |
| Canon M50, EF 75-300 USM, f/11, 1/100, 300mm, ISO 100, Cropped |
Duh.
While traipsing through the menus I found a setting titled, "Lens aberration correction."
When you select it, it displays what lens you're using at the time and gives you a list of on/off for:
Peripheral illum corr
Distortion correction
Digital Lens Optimizer
Chromatic aberr corr
Diffraction correction
I need to read up on what these setting do.
I am not yet to the point of shooting RAW.
On Tyson's Warning
It's easy enough to find all over the internet right now.
Mr Tyson, when you agonized between staying open and sheltering your employees you made a decision about being a hero.
You declined to be a hero and closed the plants.
Food is an essential industry and you control a gigantic portion of that industry.
And you closed the plants.
If a single CEO can make such a decision that has the impact that Mr Tyson claims it does, then the solution to the problem is clear.
Decentralize food production. Anti-trust gigantic firms like Tyson out of existence.
The money quote from the entire screed: "The government bodies at the national, state, county and city levels must unite in a comprehensive, thoughtful and productive way to allow our team members to work in safety without fear, panic or worry."
That translates to, "we want more regulatory capture."
Mr Tyson, when you agonized between staying open and sheltering your employees you made a decision about being a hero.
You declined to be a hero and closed the plants.
Food is an essential industry and you control a gigantic portion of that industry.
And you closed the plants.
If a single CEO can make such a decision that has the impact that Mr Tyson claims it does, then the solution to the problem is clear.
Decentralize food production. Anti-trust gigantic firms like Tyson out of existence.
The money quote from the entire screed: "The government bodies at the national, state, county and city levels must unite in a comprehensive, thoughtful and productive way to allow our team members to work in safety without fear, panic or worry."
That translates to, "we want more regulatory capture."
Been Bothering Me For 30 Years
I finally moved the gun port hatches on my Lego pirate cutter to be hinged at the top instead of the bottom.
They used to be hinged at the bottom and it really bothered me. Yet, oddly, not enough to actually move them and completely rebuild the gunwale.
They used to be hinged at the bottom and it really bothered me. Yet, oddly, not enough to actually move them and completely rebuild the gunwale.
27 April 2020
Gnomish Flamingo Cavalry
Isn't it just adorable?
Welcome to Florida, where every house has a plastic flamingo and even the garden gnomes are armed.
Crop Sensor Crop Photo
Because the EF 75-300 is a telephoto lens, I took some pics of some birds from our tailgating location.
Unedited:
Cropped:
I am just stunned at how good this camera makes me.
Unedited:
 |
| Canon M50, EF 75-300 USM, f/7.1, 1/500", 300mm, ISO 100 |
I am just stunned at how good this camera makes me.
Learning Is Fun
 |
| Canon M50, EF 75-300mm, f/4.5, 1/50", 105mm, ISO 100 |
Friend, Kimberly, hiding behind her new sloth.
This is near the macro range for the 75-300 USM lens that I am, finally, learning how to use with my camera.
The M50 is so much better than the old SX20 and lots easier to take good pictures with that it was frustrating that this one lens would not do what I wanted.
Well, it was the operator not the equipment and I needed to learn to run it correctly.
The kit lens even shines!
 |
| Canon M50, EF-M 14-45mm, f/5.6, 1/60", 39mm, ISO 100 |
Finger Crossing
Despite the doom predicted, the trend in the daily numbers has been good.
Daily increase in new cases is down.
Percentage of new cases against new tests is down.
Number of people dying is way down.
CFR is inching down too because the rate of increase of new cases is now higher than the rate of increase of new deaths.
Still no idea what the IFR will be, but as more data is collected it's looking more and more like it was out there longer than originally thought and is more widespread than some would have you believe.
It looks like it follows a normal, if bad, flu curve.
We've had worse flu epidemics than Wu Ping Cough; though, on the whole, Wu Ping appears to be a lot nastier per case if you've got some underlying issue than regular flu.
I think it's going to become another of the endemic coronavirii we deal with every year and there will eventually be a shot to go along with our flu shots for it.
In the mean time, let's get the economy running again so that Swift can stop running full page ads pandering for more government control and regulatory capture of meat processing.
Daily increase in new cases is down.
Percentage of new cases against new tests is down.
Number of people dying is way down.
CFR is inching down too because the rate of increase of new cases is now higher than the rate of increase of new deaths.
Still no idea what the IFR will be, but as more data is collected it's looking more and more like it was out there longer than originally thought and is more widespread than some would have you believe.
It looks like it follows a normal, if bad, flu curve.
We've had worse flu epidemics than Wu Ping Cough; though, on the whole, Wu Ping appears to be a lot nastier per case if you've got some underlying issue than regular flu.
I think it's going to become another of the endemic coronavirii we deal with every year and there will eventually be a shot to go along with our flu shots for it.
In the mean time, let's get the economy running again so that Swift can stop running full page ads pandering for more government control and regulatory capture of meat processing.
26 April 2020
More Moon
The EF 75-300 USM has been a vexing lens because I didn't know what I didn't know about photography.
Apparently the answer to aperture size isn't "crank that bitch wide open and leave it there!"
Dialing back the aperture to f/11 and using automatic exposure bracketing, I finally got a good pic of the moon!
I think I would prefer a little brighter next time, but this is literally the first moon picture with this lens that didn't have some sort of chromatic issue.
It's exciting to learn!
In general, though I'm taking better pictures with the EF-S 55-250.
Apparently the answer to aperture size isn't "crank that bitch wide open and leave it there!"
Dialing back the aperture to f/11 and using automatic exposure bracketing, I finally got a good pic of the moon!
 |
| Cropped. Canon EOS M50, EF 75-300, f/11, 1/15", 300mm, ISO 100 |
It's exciting to learn!
In general, though I'm taking better pictures with the EF-S 55-250.
 |
| Canon EOS M50, EF-S 55-250, f/11, 1/15", 250mm, ISO 100 |
Research
To get a handle on the history I'm alternating... I'm reading history.
I've got the high points, and high points are all that will show in the stories/campaign, but the supporting strata needs to be known.
I just read about something I'd never heard of.
The Battle of Beecher Island.
It occurs to me that if Roman Nose/Woqini had followed the strict instructions of his war bonnet, he'd have won that battle.
The battle is also illustrative of the power of leadership on a group.
Major Forsyth, despite being rather severely injured, remained level headed and in command. Even performing surgery on his own leg to remain in the fight.
Woqini is an example of what happens when an "unstoppable" leader gets snuffed. The initiative shifts and morale collapses.
By the way, to the "white man is the cause of all evil to the Indians" crowd: The group he was in was part of a large movement to reject treaties and peace with the white man and keep fighting regardless.
These splinter groups are part of what made it impossible for peace to settle in and largely resulted in reasonable requests and demands from Indian Affairs to be rejected and underfunded... which resulted in more splintering and resistance to the treaty... which lead to more cracking down from the Army... which led to...
It was akin to pilot induced oscillation.
I've got the high points, and high points are all that will show in the stories/campaign, but the supporting strata needs to be known.
I just read about something I'd never heard of.
The Battle of Beecher Island.
It occurs to me that if Roman Nose/Woqini had followed the strict instructions of his war bonnet, he'd have won that battle.
The battle is also illustrative of the power of leadership on a group.
Major Forsyth, despite being rather severely injured, remained level headed and in command. Even performing surgery on his own leg to remain in the fight.
Woqini is an example of what happens when an "unstoppable" leader gets snuffed. The initiative shifts and morale collapses.
By the way, to the "white man is the cause of all evil to the Indians" crowd: The group he was in was part of a large movement to reject treaties and peace with the white man and keep fighting regardless.
These splinter groups are part of what made it impossible for peace to settle in and largely resulted in reasonable requests and demands from Indian Affairs to be rejected and underfunded... which resulted in more splintering and resistance to the treaty... which lead to more cracking down from the Army... which led to...
It was akin to pilot induced oscillation.
25 April 2020
Core Tenet
If you're going to call yourself a scientist, something you're going to have to do is change your hypothesis when the data changes.
I've seen a lot of doubling and trebling down on conclusions from more than one place when the data is saying that conclusion is no longer tenable.
The saddest part is it's coming form the same people who would never let gun control lies stand in the face of refuting data.
Watching them become what they beheld and despised has been painful to watch.
I've seen a lot of doubling and trebling down on conclusions from more than one place when the data is saying that conclusion is no longer tenable.
The saddest part is it's coming form the same people who would never let gun control lies stand in the face of refuting data.
Watching them become what they beheld and despised has been painful to watch.
I Should Write It Down
Because I tend to quietly remove people from the sidebar rather than performing the ritual and ceremonial removal...
I tend to forget why I've done it after a time.
Some have reappeared without fanfare because, while I remember why I clipped them, I've decided to let bygones be bygones.
Most of the time, I'm just sick of some recurring thread or theme.
Occasionally I'll check back and see that, yup, they're still on about that.
I tend to forget why I've done it after a time.
Some have reappeared without fanfare because, while I remember why I clipped them, I've decided to let bygones be bygones.
Most of the time, I'm just sick of some recurring thread or theme.
Occasionally I'll check back and see that, yup, they're still on about that.
Minority Opinion
In my almost 8-year long quest to make my .38 Super Government Model the gun I wanted instead of the gun Colt made...
I wonder why I had to.
The parts were readily available (except for the mainspring housing) and simple to install.
I'm not sure I want to do another historical research project to figure out why the changes made to the M1911 that make it an M1911A1 were abandoned by most every 1911 maker but the cheapest.
After those changes were made in 1926, Colt stopped offering the old version on their commercial models too.
I suspect, but do not know, that some contrary cuss of a gun writer extolled the virtues of the flat mainspring housing with checkering you can grate a potato with and a trigger that's even longer than the original.
Extolled them well enough to cause customer demand to shift and forcing the rest of us to fix our guns.
Based on the gun he carried, it wasn't Jeff Cooper. But that doesn't narrow down the field much.
I wonder why I had to.
The parts were readily available (except for the mainspring housing) and simple to install.
I'm not sure I want to do another historical research project to figure out why the changes made to the M1911 that make it an M1911A1 were abandoned by most every 1911 maker but the cheapest.
After those changes were made in 1926, Colt stopped offering the old version on their commercial models too.
I suspect, but do not know, that some contrary cuss of a gun writer extolled the virtues of the flat mainspring housing with checkering you can grate a potato with and a trigger that's even longer than the original.
Extolled them well enough to cause customer demand to shift and forcing the rest of us to fix our guns.
Based on the gun he carried, it wasn't Jeff Cooper. But that doesn't narrow down the field much.
Late Update
Florida's arcgis repository of Wu Ping Cough numbers normally updates at 1130 and 1830.
It has not had it's evening update yet.
If the morning numbers stand, though, we're in a freefall for new cases and new deaths.
That'd be wonderful news.
Fingers crossed.
I am as shocked as anyone that I'm turning out to be the optimist around here.
It has not had it's evening update yet.
If the morning numbers stand, though, we're in a freefall for new cases and new deaths.
That'd be wonderful news.
Fingers crossed.
I am as shocked as anyone that I'm turning out to be the optimist around here.
Took A Peek
Went to our tragic Greek poet's place.
To sum up his argument against several recent reports that the virus' antibodies have been found more widely distributed than previously reported is:
I don't believe this, nyah nyah.
It must be because these reports tend to agree with the total infection numbers from closed systems like Diamond Princess and Theodore Roosevelt.
I recall him dismissing Diamond Princess as useless data once, so he's committed to rejecting data that he doesn't like.
Again.
Over and over.
It's a pattern.
To sum up his argument against several recent reports that the virus' antibodies have been found more widely distributed than previously reported is:
I don't believe this, nyah nyah.
It must be because these reports tend to agree with the total infection numbers from closed systems like Diamond Princess and Theodore Roosevelt.
I recall him dismissing Diamond Princess as useless data once, so he's committed to rejecting data that he doesn't like.
Again.
Over and over.
It's a pattern.
Still Available!
Way back, four years ago I made this post about gaudy Vietnam commemorative 1911's.
Vietnam Tribute to Valor (limited run of 1,000): Still available at $2,195 per gun.
Vietnam War Golden Anniversary Tribute (limited run of 250): Still available at $3,295 per gun.
Get yours while supplies last?
Uh...
Somewhere a Mexican drug lord is thinking, "if only they were in .38 Super."
Vietnam Tribute to Valor (limited run of 1,000): Still available at $2,195 per gun.
Vietnam War Golden Anniversary Tribute (limited run of 250): Still available at $3,295 per gun.
Get yours while supplies last?
Uh...
Somewhere a Mexican drug lord is thinking, "if only they were in .38 Super."
Sabers And... Snippet 4
He'd said he'd had a vision.
Their not-a-chief-but-very-much-a-repected-leader Standing Bear had explained that he'd had a vision that The Black Hills wasn't the sacred Black Hills and that he was destined to find them.
And here we sit, in a tent smoking from the same pipe at the border of the sacred lands of The Black Hills in an Earth that isn't Earth.
While we talked, I realized several things. I also noticed that I'd came to some conclusions and made decisions which would likely not be popular back home. Colonel Waller might not even be on board.
Assuming we had any right to be here at all, I think that this time the Indian's claims would be honored on pain of death to any white man who violated them. Level enforcement had been missing from all of the other treaties, regardless of what the text read.
Such enforcement was needed, because a wave of white people was surely to follow our expedition.
Of course, they'd also have to contend with what Standing Bear had called "the little people" who weren't very little. Stoop shouldered and stocky. Blonde hair, blue eyes and skin as white as mine.
They were everywhere in this world.
Seldom in groups larger than a family, but you were hardly ever out of sight of one of these groups.
Sgt. Harrington thinks they're pacing us and reporting in.
Their not-a-chief-but-very-much-a-repected-leader Standing Bear had explained that he'd had a vision that The Black Hills wasn't the sacred Black Hills and that he was destined to find them.
And here we sit, in a tent smoking from the same pipe at the border of the sacred lands of The Black Hills in an Earth that isn't Earth.
While we talked, I realized several things. I also noticed that I'd came to some conclusions and made decisions which would likely not be popular back home. Colonel Waller might not even be on board.
Assuming we had any right to be here at all, I think that this time the Indian's claims would be honored on pain of death to any white man who violated them. Level enforcement had been missing from all of the other treaties, regardless of what the text read.
Such enforcement was needed, because a wave of white people was surely to follow our expedition.
Of course, they'd also have to contend with what Standing Bear had called "the little people" who weren't very little. Stoop shouldered and stocky. Blonde hair, blue eyes and skin as white as mine.
They were everywhere in this world.
Seldom in groups larger than a family, but you were hardly ever out of sight of one of these groups.
Sgt. Harrington thinks they're pacing us and reporting in.
24 April 2020
WAVES!
Hello everyone linking in from Aesop's place!
I can seeeeeee you...
I least I can see where you're entering from.
I don't go there, so I have no idea what he's been saying about me and my little corner of the internet, but it must have been good for you to come and check the place out.
Welcome!
I can seeeeeee you...
I least I can see where you're entering from.
I don't go there, so I have no idea what he's been saying about me and my little corner of the internet, but it must have been good for you to come and check the place out.
Welcome!
At Last My Hand Is Whole
My .38 Super Government Model now has a lanyard loop and a proper, metal, mainspring housing!
It's an Evolution Gun Works GI Arched Mainspring Housing Blue w/Lanyard Loop Holes p/n 11441.
Not just metal, but milled bar-stock instead of cast.
Cast would have meant the ring would also be cast, and those are, reportedly, fragile.
This ring is pinned, as it should be.
Now I can open bottles!
There's a down-side, the loaded weight went from 2.6 to 2.8 pounds.
How Can You Be Trespassing On Property You Own?
Woman arrested for trespassing in closed park.
Cold Fury has more on this.
In case you were curious if your local Officer Friendly would enforce unconstitutional laws...
Well, there's your answer.
As Hognose often warned, "The police always enforce the edicts of tyranny."
He never mentioned any exceptions, despite listing countless times where the police seamlessly changed allegiance to the new order and cracked down on the populations they'd previously served.
Cold Fury has more on this.
In case you were curious if your local Officer Friendly would enforce unconstitutional laws...
Well, there's your answer.
As Hognose often warned, "The police always enforce the edicts of tyranny."
He never mentioned any exceptions, despite listing countless times where the police seamlessly changed allegiance to the new order and cracked down on the populations they'd previously served.
Speaking Of Old Games
Starting a long tradition of owning a game, making worlds and characters, then never actually playing...
In 1980 I had a copy of Melee and Wizard. These later became The Fantasy Trip, which I also bought.
Again, never played.
Advanced Dungeons and Dragons were what you played if you wanted players for your world.
We never advanced past hack-n-slash with AD&D so world development was very scanty back inmiddle junior-high school.
By the time anyone had any interest in me being the GM, I was introducing them to Traveller.
In 1980 I had a copy of Melee and Wizard. These later became The Fantasy Trip, which I also bought.
Again, never played.
Advanced Dungeons and Dragons were what you played if you wanted players for your world.
We never advanced past hack-n-slash with AD&D so world development was very scanty back in
By the time anyone had any interest in me being the GM, I was introducing them to Traveller.
Man To Man
Thirty-five years ago, more or less, FuzzyGeff tried to talk me into playing a new game he'd bought.
Steve Jackson Games' Man to Man.
It's the combat system for GURPS 1e.
I was decidedly not interested, despite his mention that it was a precursor to a new role playing game.
When GURPS came out I was also, decidedly, not interested.
It took him a good long time to convince me to give it a try.
But I did and that's all I play anymore.
Not having to learn a new game when making a new world is liberating.
Try playing post-apocalypse with D&D 5e, for example.
I've used GURPS to convert Twilight: 2000 and Traveller. Successfully. Top Secret wasn't even a challenge, no actual conversion was needed.
Prior to 4e, the only specialized game which failed GURPSification was Champions. That's kind of ironic, considering that the point based Champions was one of the inspirations for GURPS.
Steve Jackson Games' Man to Man.
It's the combat system for GURPS 1e.
I was decidedly not interested, despite his mention that it was a precursor to a new role playing game.
When GURPS came out I was also, decidedly, not interested.
It took him a good long time to convince me to give it a try.
But I did and that's all I play anymore.
Not having to learn a new game when making a new world is liberating.
Try playing post-apocalypse with D&D 5e, for example.
I've used GURPS to convert Twilight: 2000 and Traveller. Successfully. Top Secret wasn't even a challenge, no actual conversion was needed.
Prior to 4e, the only specialized game which failed GURPSification was Champions. That's kind of ironic, considering that the point based Champions was one of the inspirations for GURPS.
23 April 2020
Still Sciencing
Infection rate in New York might be as high as 13.9% statewide.
What's really interesting about this is how it coincides with Princess Diamond and Teddy Roosevelt.
And anotherfact claim of Aesop is refuted. "If the rosiest wild estimates of unvetted tests and peer-unreviewed
surveys, using statistically invalid samples are correct, SARS-CoV-2 has
penetrated, at most, about 4% of the U.S. population."
A 13.9% infection rate applied to the population of Florida gives an infection fatality rate of 0.031% from yesterday's fatalities.
Machts Nichts!
Definitely not worth the economic impact.
Also, the CFR is a nearly meaningless statistic. Someone who leads with that number is sowing panic.
Remember, H5N1 has a 52% CFR.
Update:
If we take the 21.2% of NYC being infected as a given and a population of 8,398,748 that means that 1,780,535 people are infected.
10,290 are dead and confirmed to have had the infection, 5,121 dead were probably infected.
Adding them together gives a worse number than just confirmed cases, so we're using that.
141,754 have been tested and reported to have the disease, an infection rate of just 1.69%
That gives a CFR of 10.87% That's a terrifying number!
With an infection rate of 21.2%, however, the IFR is 0.87%. Much higher than ROSF, but not terrifying.
Update 2:
It's also been reported that NYFC is padding their death numbers and while many have died with the infection, it's not clear how many have died from the infection. Like Italy.
What's really interesting about this is how it coincides with Princess Diamond and Teddy Roosevelt.
And another
A 13.9% infection rate applied to the population of Florida gives an infection fatality rate of 0.031% from yesterday's fatalities.
Machts Nichts!
Definitely not worth the economic impact.
Also, the CFR is a nearly meaningless statistic. Someone who leads with that number is sowing panic.
Remember, H5N1 has a 52% CFR.
Update:
If we take the 21.2% of NYC being infected as a given and a population of 8,398,748 that means that 1,780,535 people are infected.
10,290 are dead and confirmed to have had the infection, 5,121 dead were probably infected.
Adding them together gives a worse number than just confirmed cases, so we're using that.
141,754 have been tested and reported to have the disease, an infection rate of just 1.69%
That gives a CFR of 10.87% That's a terrifying number!
With an infection rate of 21.2%, however, the IFR is 0.87%. Much higher than ROSF, but not terrifying.
Update 2:
It's also been reported that NYFC is padding their death numbers and while many have died with the infection, it's not clear how many have died from the infection. Like Italy.
Second Blog?
Borepatch's place is now Aesop's second home.
Pity.
Borepatch, those weren't ad hominem attacks. You should recheck the definition.
Aesop makes claims and insists his claims are data. Very rarely does he source that data and brooks no dissent to his claims.
He's been polite at your place, but his MO, as commented on in the post you think contains ad hominem attacks is to insult and ridicule people who disagree with his position.
He's done it a for a long time, and most of us remember from Hognose's place.
But you've provided him a safe space to post his claims and thanks to redefinition of ad hominem, we know to not bother debating him where you claim you want to see civil debate.
Pity.
Borepatch, those weren't ad hominem attacks. You should recheck the definition.
Aesop makes claims and insists his claims are data. Very rarely does he source that data and brooks no dissent to his claims.
He's been polite at your place, but his MO, as commented on in the post you think contains ad hominem attacks is to insult and ridicule people who disagree with his position.
He's done it a for a long time, and most of us remember from Hognose's place.
But you've provided him a safe space to post his claims and thanks to redefinition of ad hominem, we know to not bother debating him where you claim you want to see civil debate.
22 April 2020
Custer Died In Bed
Actually, General Custer is a spry 59 when my stories get rolling.
In the Sabers and... universe The Battle of Little Big Horn / Greasy Grass never took place because of the creation of the Indian Gates.
It also means that near a decade of Indian Wars didn't happen either, except for the Commanche.
It's got me wondering.
In our 1899 there were just enough Krags to go around and replace the Trapdoors.
With just the Commanche to sit on, funding for the Army would likely be even lower than it was historically.
Rifles would get some priority, but handguns?
The constabulary cavalry of the west would probably still be issued M1873 Single Action Army and M1875 Schofield revolvers with just a scattering of the M1892 .38's.
Definitely have potato diggers though!
I'm still researching what the unit composition should be and what kind of artillery accompanies a full cavalry regiment in 1899.
Sadly, for Willard, I might have to use a different number for the regiment than his preferred 77th.
There were only 15 cavalry regiments back then.
This also skewers my idea of using the 34th or 81st as my unit (because I'd served in both).
In the Sabers and... universe The Battle of Little Big Horn / Greasy Grass never took place because of the creation of the Indian Gates.
It also means that near a decade of Indian Wars didn't happen either, except for the Commanche.
It's got me wondering.
In our 1899 there were just enough Krags to go around and replace the Trapdoors.
With just the Commanche to sit on, funding for the Army would likely be even lower than it was historically.
Rifles would get some priority, but handguns?
The constabulary cavalry of the west would probably still be issued M1873 Single Action Army and M1875 Schofield revolvers with just a scattering of the M1892 .38's.
Definitely have potato diggers though!
I'm still researching what the unit composition should be and what kind of artillery accompanies a full cavalry regiment in 1899.
Sadly, for Willard, I might have to use a different number for the regiment than his preferred 77th.
There were only 15 cavalry regiments back then.
This also skewers my idea of using the 34th or 81st as my unit (because I'd served in both).
The Quest Is Over!
I finally found a blued, serrated 1911 mainspring housing with a lanyard loop which wasn't eye-wateringly expensive or cast.
It's bothered me for years that my .38 Super couldn't open beer bottles.
It's bothered me for years that my .38 Super couldn't open beer bottles.
Sabers And... Snippet 3
July 20, 1899
It was a conundrum.
The red-legs had surveyed the area and we were still in the Dakota Territories, barely a mile from the fort which was clearly not there.
Earth but not Earth?
It was lieutenant Wilson of E-Troop, fresh from The Point who asked the question once we realized we were still where we were. He's a good kid, but he's got a lot to learn about keeping his mouth shut when someone outside the family was listening.
"If we'd ceded, according to the treaty, all the land from here to here and there to there and THIS place had land from here to here and there to there and the 'escaped' Indians where living within the confines of that space... Aren't they obeying the treaty?"
If he hadn't said it where Mrs. Fitzhugh could hear it, this mission would have remained a scouting mission for the gathering of intelligence and information.
But what Mrs. Fitzhugh hears, Mr. Fitzhugh hears, and Mr, Fitzhugh being our representative agent from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, is a man who can make "requests" of the commanding officer which have career implications.
One ignores such requests at ones peril.
Now it was H-Troop's job to find an Indian encampment and ask them, pretty please, what they thought they were doing here and if they believed everyone was obeying the treaty.
That made it my problem.
I also note that that ring knocking son of a bitch who started this entire mess is not in the troop given the task.
There's no Justice.
It was a conundrum.
The red-legs had surveyed the area and we were still in the Dakota Territories, barely a mile from the fort which was clearly not there.
Earth but not Earth?
It was lieutenant Wilson of E-Troop, fresh from The Point who asked the question once we realized we were still where we were. He's a good kid, but he's got a lot to learn about keeping his mouth shut when someone outside the family was listening.
"If we'd ceded, according to the treaty, all the land from here to here and there to there and THIS place had land from here to here and there to there and the 'escaped' Indians where living within the confines of that space... Aren't they obeying the treaty?"
If he hadn't said it where Mrs. Fitzhugh could hear it, this mission would have remained a scouting mission for the gathering of intelligence and information.
But what Mrs. Fitzhugh hears, Mr. Fitzhugh hears, and Mr, Fitzhugh being our representative agent from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, is a man who can make "requests" of the commanding officer which have career implications.
One ignores such requests at ones peril.
Now it was H-Troop's job to find an Indian encampment and ask them, pretty please, what they thought they were doing here and if they believed everyone was obeying the treaty.
That made it my problem.
I also note that that ring knocking son of a bitch who started this entire mess is not in the troop given the task.
There's no Justice.
21 April 2020
The Data Is Improving
Two rounds of testing trying to find out how many people have been infected are showing much larger populations have antibodies than originally thought.
We're getting closer to being able to have a reasonable guess at the infection fatality rate and it appears that it's going to be lower than ROSF.
That would mean that there's something special about NYFC that makes it especially worse there.
We're getting closer to being able to have a reasonable guess at the infection fatality rate and it appears that it's going to be lower than ROSF.
That would mean that there's something special about NYFC that makes it especially worse there.
Another Petri Dish
USS Theodore Roosevelt has dumped some Wu Ping Cough numbers on us.
Allegedly. I read this on the internet, so it must be true. You can't lie on a forum, right?
But if it's true... it's premature.
4,800 crewwith 100% testing.
700 or 14.6% positive.
7 hospitalized, 2 needing ICU
1 dead.
That's an CFR of 0.15% IFR still unknown.
I will try to find another source for these numbers, take them as optimistic rumors for now.
According to UPI the entire crew has not yet been tested.
Allegedly. I read this on the internet, so it must be true. You can't lie on a forum, right?
But if it's true... it's premature.
4,800 crew
700 or 14.6% positive.
7 hospitalized, 2 needing ICU
1 dead.
That's an CFR of 0.15% IFR still unknown.
I will try to find another source for these numbers, take them as optimistic rumors for now.
According to UPI the entire crew has not yet been tested.
20 April 2020
Didn't Make It To The End Of The Movie Did You Patton?
First off, you ignorant dancing monkey, Ms Frank was found by the National Socialists and died in a concentration camp.
Secondly, she was hiding in that attic, with her entire family, in the vain hope of avoiding that death in a concentration camp.
Third, the people she was hiding from, The National Socialist, were part of a foreign government who'd invaded her country.
So, Dumbass, what parallel are you trying to draw here?
Because on the face of it, it looks like you're saying that we've no reason to be afraid and shouldn't be hiding. Our nation has not been conquered by a hostile foreign power, and they're not actively hunting us down and sending us to death camps.
Since there's no reason to be hiding from National Socialists in our attics, then there's no good goddamned reason for Fuddruckers to be closed.
Is that what your ignorant dancing monkey ass meant to say?
Or is the reason that people are protesting is because they, unlike an ignorant dancing monkey, can see the shape of the curve, the balance of their bank account and judge the risk of reopening businesses to be worth it.
It was the government who shut down their livelihood, so it is to the government one should address for redress.
If only there was something in the Bill of Rights about this... Oh wait.
Sure Looks Like A Flu Curve
We're getting there here in Florida.
Influenza Like Infections are WAY down! Notice that it has a similar three peak shape as the Wu Ping Cough graph at the top of the page.
Sabers And... Snippet 2
March 15, 1898
Colonel Waller had the beginnings of a headache.
The twenty plus years moribund, yet still funded, Bureau of Indian Affairs had nearly buried his poor aide-de-camp in messages that they were certain were urgent.
What could possibly be urgent from an agency whose entire reason for existence had literally disappeared 22 years ago.
Well, not entirely. The Comanche and Seminole had not been invited to where ever all the other tribes had gotten off to.
Not even mages hired from Yale and Harvard had been able to locate the missing tribes.
But his headache had nothing to do with the 'urgent' messages from Affairs.
His headache was entirely from the Lieutenant Colonel of Magery standing in front of him.
"Sir, we've figured out where they went and maybe even how!"
It was a remarkable theory and it stemmed from a failed experiment to move cannon quickly and decisively at Antiem. While the first attempt had gone well, and the Rebels turned, the second had resulted in an entire battery going missing for an entire month. They'd been very confused to have stepped out of the gateway and thirty days into their future without spending a moment of it.
"It all stems from the Sun Dance lodges being different that year!" he was explaining.
"That's all well and good, Colonel, but how can you be certain this is how they escaped?" Col. Waller interrupted.
"First off, there have been several important thaumaturgical breakthroughs," he replied, "Secondly, we've identified trade between here and where they've gone."
Colonel Waller had the beginnings of a headache.
The twenty plus years moribund, yet still funded, Bureau of Indian Affairs had nearly buried his poor aide-de-camp in messages that they were certain were urgent.
What could possibly be urgent from an agency whose entire reason for existence had literally disappeared 22 years ago.
Well, not entirely. The Comanche and Seminole had not been invited to where ever all the other tribes had gotten off to.
Not even mages hired from Yale and Harvard had been able to locate the missing tribes.
But his headache had nothing to do with the 'urgent' messages from Affairs.
His headache was entirely from the Lieutenant Colonel of Magery standing in front of him.
"Sir, we've figured out where they went and maybe even how!"
It was a remarkable theory and it stemmed from a failed experiment to move cannon quickly and decisively at Antiem. While the first attempt had gone well, and the Rebels turned, the second had resulted in an entire battery going missing for an entire month. They'd been very confused to have stepped out of the gateway and thirty days into their future without spending a moment of it.
"It all stems from the Sun Dance lodges being different that year!" he was explaining.
"That's all well and good, Colonel, but how can you be certain this is how they escaped?" Col. Waller interrupted.
"First off, there have been several important thaumaturgical breakthroughs," he replied, "Secondly, we've identified trade between here and where they've gone."
Sabers And... Snippet 1
June 7, 1875
We'd ridden hard at the behest of the Affairs agent to stop the Indians from doing their annual Sun Dancing.
They simply wouldn't learn the practice was forbidden and that allowing it was just making their lives worse as their warriors took great vows to strike at us and settlers.
We'd been ordered to be extra strict this year because of the recent discovery of gold in The Black Hills by Colonel Custer and the Sioux and Crow were being extra agitated about the Treaty being blatantly ignored.
Never mind they routinely violated the treaty by wandering off and murdering folks.
Our arrival was not what we'd expected it to be.
"Gone? What do you mean 'gone'?" I asked.
The Affairs agent looked like he'd eaten a frog, "Gone! Major. As in, 'they were here last night and they aren't here now' gone!"
That was self evident. Aside from my troop and the agent's people there wasn't a soul to be seen.
We'd ridden hard at the behest of the Affairs agent to stop the Indians from doing their annual Sun Dancing.
They simply wouldn't learn the practice was forbidden and that allowing it was just making their lives worse as their warriors took great vows to strike at us and settlers.
We'd been ordered to be extra strict this year because of the recent discovery of gold in The Black Hills by Colonel Custer and the Sioux and Crow were being extra agitated about the Treaty being blatantly ignored.
Never mind they routinely violated the treaty by wandering off and murdering folks.
Our arrival was not what we'd expected it to be.
"Gone? What do you mean 'gone'?" I asked.
The Affairs agent looked like he'd eaten a frog, "Gone! Major. As in, 'they were here last night and they aren't here now' gone!"
That was self evident. Aside from my troop and the agent's people there wasn't a soul to be seen.
Even more bothersome was our mage tracking them to the center of where
they'd been doing their Sun Dances and finding no sign they'd left. Sgt
Harrison didn't mess up simple spells like that.
The question remained. Where had over a thousand Sioux gotten to if they'd not walked away from the community center, and why hadn't we seen them as we rode in?
The question remained. Where had over a thousand Sioux gotten to if they'd not walked away from the community center, and why hadn't we seen them as we rode in?
19 April 2020
Too Close
The opinions of emergency room staff about the overall effect Wu Ping Cough has compared to other diseases is very much like asking an infantryman stuck on Omaha Beach how the war is going.
I've read a couple ER accounts where they're angry that some people are saying that this is no worse than the flu and then going on to talk about how devastating it is on an individual patient.
OK, Doc, that individual was and is hit harder than the flu normally presents.
But the overall death rate for Covid-19 is still below ROSF-17. That'd be regular old seasonal flu.
By that metric it's not as bad as the flu.
It's not even close to what Hong Kong flu pulled in 1968.
I feel sorry for that individual and I do not doubt your observations; but you're too close to the battle to see the war.
I've read a couple ER accounts where they're angry that some people are saying that this is no worse than the flu and then going on to talk about how devastating it is on an individual patient.
OK, Doc, that individual was and is hit harder than the flu normally presents.
But the overall death rate for Covid-19 is still below ROSF-17. That'd be regular old seasonal flu.
By that metric it's not as bad as the flu.
It's not even close to what Hong Kong flu pulled in 1968.
I feel sorry for that individual and I do not doubt your observations; but you're too close to the battle to see the war.
Not Sure What To Title It
My snippet of a world is growing some legs.
Brainstorming with Willard gave me several scenes that might make part of a good story.
He came up with a good world title that I, of course, promptly forgot...
Sabers and...? Dangit!
Brainstorming with Willard gave me several scenes that might make part of a good story.
He came up with a good world title that I, of course, promptly forgot...
Sabers and...? Dangit!
We're All Gonna Starve
Let me dip my toe into the impending gloom and doom about how there's going to be no food soon.
Probably not.
There is reduced demand in the restaurant supply chains and an increased demand in supermarket supply chains.
While the demand for meals is unchanged, the amount of food needed per meal on the supermarket side is lower than the restaurant side.
How do I know this? I used to help my live-in girlfriend run a cafeteria.
Restaurants waste a lot more food than individuals cooking at home.
At home you can use something that's expired but still wholesome. A restaurant has to throw that shit out.
At home if you bungle up the preparation slightly you normally just eat it anyway (and sometimes discover a new recipe). A restaurant has to toss the entire entree and start over.
When buying for home you know exactly how many people are going to show up and when they're going to be eating so you can tailor the amount of food brought out of storage and prepped for cooking with minimal waste. A restaurant has to guess how many people are going to show up and when; and if too few show they have to toss the prepped ingredients in many cases.
A draw-down in food suppliers doesn't mean there isn't enough food to meet demand.
But spreading panic about a shortage will make food go like toilet paper did.
Probably not.
There is reduced demand in the restaurant supply chains and an increased demand in supermarket supply chains.
While the demand for meals is unchanged, the amount of food needed per meal on the supermarket side is lower than the restaurant side.
How do I know this? I used to help my live-in girlfriend run a cafeteria.
Restaurants waste a lot more food than individuals cooking at home.
At home you can use something that's expired but still wholesome. A restaurant has to throw that shit out.
At home if you bungle up the preparation slightly you normally just eat it anyway (and sometimes discover a new recipe). A restaurant has to toss the entire entree and start over.
When buying for home you know exactly how many people are going to show up and when they're going to be eating so you can tailor the amount of food brought out of storage and prepped for cooking with minimal waste. A restaurant has to guess how many people are going to show up and when; and if too few show they have to toss the prepped ingredients in many cases.
A draw-down in food suppliers doesn't mean there isn't enough food to meet demand.
But spreading panic about a shortage will make food go like toilet paper did.
Try Not Selling Something
It would be a lot easier to take you seriously about a possible, impending, food shortage if you didn't immediately segue into selling me on your prepper food pack.
That's not a warning.
That's an advertisement.
A commercial.
That's not a warning.
That's an advertisement.
A commercial.
Why Are There Mega-Fauna
My snippet world is taking on a life of its own in my mind.
More detail is sticking.
The world through the spook-hole (® WF Fleetwood 2020) has mega-fauna.
The real reason is because I want it to be there. I'm the world-builder and have God-like powers over it.
But I want a plausible explanation that's not pure double-talk and handwavium.
I think I stumbled across it.
This world also lacked homo-sapiens until the Sioux opened their gate and escaped the reservations.
It did have homo-neanderthalensis.
One of the holocene extinction theories is that as the climate warmed, the mega-fauna was having trouble adapting to the new conditions and we humans wandered in and knocked them over the edge by hunting them.
I'm deciding that homo-neanderthalensis was having the same problems adapting to the heat as the big critters and it took them longer to spread out into the rest of the world, thus giving the giant mammals time to adapt and then continue to thrive.
It's not complete double-talk. It's better than a lot of fantasy world explanations, in fact.
More detail is sticking.
The world through the spook-hole (® WF Fleetwood 2020) has mega-fauna.
The real reason is because I want it to be there. I'm the world-builder and have God-like powers over it.
But I want a plausible explanation that's not pure double-talk and handwavium.
I think I stumbled across it.
This world also lacked homo-sapiens until the Sioux opened their gate and escaped the reservations.
It did have homo-neanderthalensis.
One of the holocene extinction theories is that as the climate warmed, the mega-fauna was having trouble adapting to the new conditions and we humans wandered in and knocked them over the edge by hunting them.
I'm deciding that homo-neanderthalensis was having the same problems adapting to the heat as the big critters and it took them longer to spread out into the rest of the world, thus giving the giant mammals time to adapt and then continue to thrive.
It's not complete double-talk. It's better than a lot of fantasy world explanations, in fact.
18 April 2020
How Deadly Is It
Wu Ping Cough has snuffed 39,000 or so Americans so far.
Two years ago the everyday flu got 61,000 to 80,000 depending on which CDC release you're reading.
This year normal everyday flu is looking to have killed 24,000 to 62,000 people (the counting ain't near done yet).
Hong Kong (RACIST!) Flu in '68-'69 killed off 100,000 people in the US. This was also a novel coronavirus. This scales to 165,000 dead today if you account for population inflation.
Since Wu Ping Cough appears to be a lot more deadly per case than the flu, we're obviously missing some important data.
If it's as or more virulent than flu, then there should be a lot more deaths. Three times as many from the CFR's I've been seeing.
That means that it's either not as virulent or it's not three times as deadly.
Something to remember about the case fatality rate is that it doesn't even attempt to figure out how many people have the disease who are never treated for it.
The CFR for H5N1 (so called Avian (SPECIESIST) flu) has a CFR of 52.8%! Worldwide deaths from this certain, and infectious, killer? 455.
The CFR doesn't tell you everything, or much, about what you need to know about a disease.
So far, Wu Ping hasn't done near the damage, directly, of several other recent diseases; but our reaction to it sure has.
I keep wondering who benefits most from our overreaction. If it's China, I suggest turning the keys to the left on my count...3...2...1.
Two years ago the everyday flu got 61,000 to 80,000 depending on which CDC release you're reading.
This year normal everyday flu is looking to have killed 24,000 to 62,000 people (the counting ain't near done yet).
Hong Kong (RACIST!) Flu in '68-'69 killed off 100,000 people in the US. This was also a novel coronavirus. This scales to 165,000 dead today if you account for population inflation.
Since Wu Ping Cough appears to be a lot more deadly per case than the flu, we're obviously missing some important data.
If it's as or more virulent than flu, then there should be a lot more deaths. Three times as many from the CFR's I've been seeing.
That means that it's either not as virulent or it's not three times as deadly.
Something to remember about the case fatality rate is that it doesn't even attempt to figure out how many people have the disease who are never treated for it.
The CFR for H5N1 (so called Avian (SPECIESIST) flu) has a CFR of 52.8%! Worldwide deaths from this certain, and infectious, killer? 455.
The CFR doesn't tell you everything, or much, about what you need to know about a disease.
So far, Wu Ping hasn't done near the damage, directly, of several other recent diseases; but our reaction to it sure has.
I keep wondering who benefits most from our overreaction. If it's China, I suggest turning the keys to the left on my count...3...2...1.
Three Years
Today is when we lost Hognose.
His spreading the word of my need provided help when it did the most good.
He even made me a little famous in certain quarters with my One is None post. Apparently I have one or more unclaimed drinks... I can't remember the post! Fort Something!
His spreading the word of my need provided help when it did the most good.
He even made me a little famous in certain quarters with my One is None post. Apparently I have one or more unclaimed drinks... I can't remember the post! Fort Something!
Chassepot to FAMAS
I'm reading Ian McCollum's book on French military rifles.
This is not a book I would have bought for myself, and I didn't.
Thanks Willard!
It's been an interesting read so far.
I've just gotten to the Kropatchek.
Lots of interesting stuff so far.
It's well put together.
This is not a book I would have bought for myself, and I didn't.
Thanks Willard!
It's been an interesting read so far.
I've just gotten to the Kropatchek.
Lots of interesting stuff so far.
It's well put together.
We Are Official!
The last of the damage from Hurricane Irma has finally been put right at Casa de McThag!
There are gutters on the back porch.
The Lovely Harvey even treated me to some wet t-shirt action cleaning them out!
Didn't even need to use my AK, it's been a good day!
There are gutters on the back porch.
The Lovely Harvey even treated me to some wet t-shirt action cleaning them out!
Didn't even need to use my AK, it's been a good day!
17 April 2020
That's Interdasting
San Francisco is doing anti-body testing on people showing no symptoms and finding that there are (may be?) 50 to 85 times as many infected with Wu Ping Cough as previously thought.
Linky
If, BIG IF, this is typical that means this disease is more on par with a bad flu than previously thought.
That'd drop the infection fatality rate in Florida down to a whopping 0.034% That's lower than normal flu.
It would also mean that almost 10% of Florida has or had it.
Linky
If, BIG IF, this is typical that means this disease is more on par with a bad flu than previously thought.
That'd drop the infection fatality rate in Florida down to a whopping 0.034% That's lower than normal flu.
It would also mean that almost 10% of Florida has or had it.
When It Rains It Pours
We've had three fans just up and die the past two weeks. Two within hours of each other.
The Precious torque tube is giving off dire warnings of impending calamity.
The Mother In Law's relatively new Lenovo T410 rolled over and died.
The microwave shit the bed.
And I grappled with my laptop into the wee hours.
Fans have been replaced.
Torque tube is ordered.
I repaired MiL's old Gateway with a new keyboard and pegged the RAM. She's actually happier with it than the Lenovo despite the Lenovo being a technically better machine.
We also bought her a refurbished T420 just in case she no longer liked the repaired Gateway which had been replaced with the, now dead, T410.
The microwave has also been replaced.
Sometime tomorrow the screws I need to reattach the gutter to the porch will arrive and that Herculean task will finally be done and the back fully restored except for new screens.
The Precious torque tube is giving off dire warnings of impending calamity.
The Mother In Law's relatively new Lenovo T410 rolled over and died.
The microwave shit the bed.
And I grappled with my laptop into the wee hours.
Fans have been replaced.
Torque tube is ordered.
I repaired MiL's old Gateway with a new keyboard and pegged the RAM. She's actually happier with it than the Lenovo despite the Lenovo being a technically better machine.
We also bought her a refurbished T420 just in case she no longer liked the repaired Gateway which had been replaced with the, now dead, T410.
The microwave has also been replaced.
Sometime tomorrow the screws I need to reattach the gutter to the porch will arrive and that Herculean task will finally be done and the back fully restored except for new screens.
More Anecdotes Are Coming In
I've read a couple of posts from ER types who're detailing what they're seeing on the ground in some of the worst places.
I'm also seeing, on a couple of forums, posts from medical types who used to work at the places which are presently the worst.
It seems that they were the worst before Wu Ping Cough as well.
A shitty hospital in a shitty state/county/city healthcare system isn't going to deliver class-A service just because they imported some good talent at the last minute to grossly overwork.
Many of the dedicated new talent have no idea how it was before they got there and won't necessarily see why it's so much worse where they are now than elsewhere. They're being grossly overworked and are very close to the subject.
They have an excellent blind-man's description of an elephant's trunk.
I think they're going to be extra bitter when they get some perspective and distance and find that they could have worked more effectively if the place they were sent had been of better quality.
I'm also seeing, on a couple of forums, posts from medical types who used to work at the places which are presently the worst.
It seems that they were the worst before Wu Ping Cough as well.
A shitty hospital in a shitty state/county/city healthcare system isn't going to deliver class-A service just because they imported some good talent at the last minute to grossly overwork.
Many of the dedicated new talent have no idea how it was before they got there and won't necessarily see why it's so much worse where they are now than elsewhere. They're being grossly overworked and are very close to the subject.
They have an excellent blind-man's description of an elephant's trunk.
I think they're going to be extra bitter when they get some perspective and distance and find that they could have worked more effectively if the place they were sent had been of better quality.
I Hate Computers
I do, sometimes, yearn for a simpler time before computers became commonplace.
I just spent the past two hours running CHKDSK after getting a BSOD.
Not the restful time I'd planned for myself.
Errors were found and repaired.
Fingers crossed that it's fixed.
I just spent the past two hours running CHKDSK after getting a BSOD.
Not the restful time I'd planned for myself.
Errors were found and repaired.
Fingers crossed that it's fixed.
16 April 2020
Random Babble
I'm sitting here considering that a 9mm pistol in GURPS is differentiated by just weight and capacity.
There's some very slight differences in damage and range from differing barrel lengths, but most are the same.
Then I segued into wondering how this applied to the real world.
Are 9mm pistols all that different?
There's reams of articles and terabytes of data dedicated to saying, "yes," but how different are they?
I shoot my Hi-Power better than any other 9mm I own.
I can't tell the difference between targets from shooting my Glock 17 or M&P 9. Or the Glock 45 for that matter.
The Lovely Harvey can't make the Glock 17 group for all the tea in India, but shoots her M&P 9 quite well.
Willard shoots the same group with just about anything he wraps his paws around.
I sometimes think that best one is the one you like best and are able to shoot acceptably.
Even if you chose it because it was "pretty".
Even if you chose it because it felt good in your hand in the gun shop.
And those two things could be attached to a gun you can't hit the broad side of a barn from within.
Did you read this far?
Yeah, I'm rambling. This doesn't have a conclusion.
There's some very slight differences in damage and range from differing barrel lengths, but most are the same.
Then I segued into wondering how this applied to the real world.
Are 9mm pistols all that different?
There's reams of articles and terabytes of data dedicated to saying, "yes," but how different are they?
I shoot my Hi-Power better than any other 9mm I own.
I can't tell the difference between targets from shooting my Glock 17 or M&P 9. Or the Glock 45 for that matter.
The Lovely Harvey can't make the Glock 17 group for all the tea in India, but shoots her M&P 9 quite well.
Willard shoots the same group with just about anything he wraps his paws around.
I sometimes think that best one is the one you like best and are able to shoot acceptably.
Even if you chose it because it was "pretty".
Even if you chose it because it felt good in your hand in the gun shop.
And those two things could be attached to a gun you can't hit the broad side of a barn from within.
Did you read this far?
Yeah, I'm rambling. This doesn't have a conclusion.
Inauthentic
My bourbon of preference, of late, has been Bulleit.
I've read a couple of impassioned condemnations of the brand because it's not some small batch artisanal made from individually hand grown kernels of corn.
Personally, my bar for "is it good?" is "do I like it?"
I do.
It's souless and mass produced and I don't care.
It's also shat out by Four-Roses whom I generally like anyway.
I've read a couple of impassioned condemnations of the brand because it's not some small batch artisanal made from individually hand grown kernels of corn.
Personally, my bar for "is it good?" is "do I like it?"
I do.
It's souless and mass produced and I don't care.
It's also shat out by Four-Roses whom I generally like anyway.
My Data Set
The numbers I'm writing down every evening here are from here.
It's an Official Florida Government Website, so we must believe them!
No, we don't.
But I decided to stick to this source because it's also being used by all four of the local news outlets and is being repeated here.
There's, at least, two other Official Florida Government Websites with their own data sets.
The order that information comes in can change what the daily totals are.
The time that they enter their information each day can change the daily totals.
Is one more trustworthy than the others?
I have no idea.
I'm not married to them. Can you prove they're incorrect?
But one thing this data set is missing, which was included in one of the others was analysis.
Analysis which cannot be recreated from the data presented because none of the, multiple, Official Florida Government Websites are giving us any damned history.
I only have a history because I started writing down the numbers presented every day.
It's an Official Florida Government Website, so we must believe them!
No, we don't.
But I decided to stick to this source because it's also being used by all four of the local news outlets and is being repeated here.
There's, at least, two other Official Florida Government Websites with their own data sets.
The order that information comes in can change what the daily totals are.
The time that they enter their information each day can change the daily totals.
Is one more trustworthy than the others?
I have no idea.
I'm not married to them. Can you prove they're incorrect?
But one thing this data set is missing, which was included in one of the others was analysis.
Analysis which cannot be recreated from the data presented because none of the, multiple, Official Florida Government Websites are giving us any damned history.
I only have a history because I started writing down the numbers presented every day.
I Think It's A Good Ruling
If there's one place you should be safe from The State, it's at home.
The serving of a warrant to enter or search your home should be a complicated ritual with the odds stacked in favor of the rightful resident.
Which means, if the police fail to properly evoke the ritual, it changes them from lawful representatives of The State and into criminal trespassers.
Someone lost five years of their life over the failure of the police to properly perform the ritual.
But we now have jurisprudence, in Florida anyway, for the minimum standard where it's OK to shoot at the cops.
Always remember, People have rights, government has powers. Powers derived from the people and loaned to the government, but not abdicated.
The serving of a warrant to enter or search your home should be a complicated ritual with the odds stacked in favor of the rightful resident.
Which means, if the police fail to properly evoke the ritual, it changes them from lawful representatives of The State and into criminal trespassers.
Someone lost five years of their life over the failure of the police to properly perform the ritual.
But we now have jurisprudence, in Florida anyway, for the minimum standard where it's OK to shoot at the cops.
Always remember, People have rights, government has powers. Powers derived from the people and loaned to the government, but not abdicated.
I Feel Stimulated
The IRS dumped our stimulus money into our account yesterday.
The Precious is getting a new torque tube.
I think I will have the old one rebuilt and either keep it as a spare or sell it on ebay.
The Precious is getting a new torque tube.
I think I will have the old one rebuilt and either keep it as a spare or sell it on ebay.
Something Rotten In Flordiamark
I've been recording my own numbers from the 1830 posting at Florida's COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard. See above.
Florida Disaster Org posted their own.
There's a 20% discrepancy in the numbers for the past two weeks between the table on page 2 of the pdf and what Florida Health Covid Gov is reporting. What's worse, Florida Disaster doesn't show the totals to allow you to compare easily, you've got to be willing to add them up yourself.
I think what we're seeing is the testing arriving at different times to different agencies and not something nefarious. It pisses me off though.
15 April 2020
A Problem With The Media
They're using the exact same tone about 614 deaths in Florida as they do over 2 deaths in Daytona for Bike Week.
They're the same people who, after years of screaming about the dangers of semi-auto rifles based on assault rifles, could not articulate how a shipping container of Chinese Type 56 Carbines (real-deal Chinese AKMs) was any different; but also claimed was somehow WORSE than a Norinco Type 56 Sporter.
For people who're supposed to be adept and trained at using language to convey meaning...
They sure don't manage to evoke any sense of scale.
They sure are focusing on the totals as the patience with the shut-down grows.
They aren't mentioning that the trend line for both new cases and new tests is down.
They have not yet mentioned the relationship with new testing and new cases here in Florida. You self select for being tested and you have to show some symptoms to be tested.
10.47% of people tested in Florida have been found to have the Wu Ping Cough.
Not quite 1% of the population has been tested.
I think we should stop with the gloom and doom and start with, first, a "you did great at this!" and get some damn optimism and can-do spirit going.
We know how to do this, we really do, and stopping to listen to people with a vested interest in negative outcomes should be told to fuck right off.
We should also start telling interfering government to leave us alone. Not asking them to leave us alone, ordering them to.
After all, they are supposed to be our employees not our masters.
They're the same people who, after years of screaming about the dangers of semi-auto rifles based on assault rifles, could not articulate how a shipping container of Chinese Type 56 Carbines (real-deal Chinese AKMs) was any different; but also claimed was somehow WORSE than a Norinco Type 56 Sporter.
For people who're supposed to be adept and trained at using language to convey meaning...
They sure don't manage to evoke any sense of scale.
They sure are focusing on the totals as the patience with the shut-down grows.
They aren't mentioning that the trend line for both new cases and new tests is down.
They have not yet mentioned the relationship with new testing and new cases here in Florida. You self select for being tested and you have to show some symptoms to be tested.
10.47% of people tested in Florida have been found to have the Wu Ping Cough.
Not quite 1% of the population has been tested.
I think we should stop with the gloom and doom and start with, first, a "you did great at this!" and get some damn optimism and can-do spirit going.
We know how to do this, we really do, and stopping to listen to people with a vested interest in negative outcomes should be told to fuck right off.
We should also start telling interfering government to leave us alone. Not asking them to leave us alone, ordering them to.
After all, they are supposed to be our employees not our masters.
The Missus Doesn't Like It
Harry, when your wife makes you change everything about yourself to keep her, you should let her go.
There's a word that I think you might want to get familiar with as you cave to every demand:
Cuckold.
Google it, Harry.
A man who changes everything about himself for a woman who was supposedly attracted to the man before they married seldom keeps her interest for long past the changes and that normally leads to infidelity.
There's a technical, and very offensive, term for a woman who selects a man with the idea of changing everything about them. The polite version is harridan. The rude version shares 75% of the letters with aunt.
There's a word that I think you might want to get familiar with as you cave to every demand:
Cuckold.
Google it, Harry.
A man who changes everything about himself for a woman who was supposedly attracted to the man before they married seldom keeps her interest for long past the changes and that normally leads to infidelity.
There's a technical, and very offensive, term for a woman who selects a man with the idea of changing everything about them. The polite version is harridan. The rude version shares 75% of the letters with aunt.
Deadly
Today our sheriff put out that there have been 115 overdoses and 26 deaths from them from people going nuts from the lock-down.
There have been three deaths in the county from the disease that everyone is self medicating to relieve the stress from.
Wunderbar!
There have been three deaths in the county from the disease that everyone is self medicating to relieve the stress from.
Wunderbar!
Home Improvement
Home maintenance, really.
Got the flashing and soffits back on the eaves from where the old patio roof had rotted out from under them.
The roof has been replaced for a while and this small job just kept getting put off with the honey-do's at the in-laws. Still have four more windows to replace there too.
Fixin' things cuts into bloggin' time.
Got the flashing and soffits back on the eaves from where the old patio roof had rotted out from under them.
The roof has been replaced for a while and this small job just kept getting put off with the honey-do's at the in-laws. Still have four more windows to replace there too.
Fixin' things cuts into bloggin' time.
14 April 2020
MSM Discovers The Maths
Washington Times talks about how the confirmed cases tracks with testing and how that affects the case fatality rate.
The timing makes me think they're getting ready to cushion the restart of the economy.
The timing makes me think they're getting ready to cushion the restart of the economy.
13 April 2020
I Am Curious
Have the film critics been as savage towards Onward as there were to Bright?
It's got the same problem of not explaining to them what's readily apparent to anyone who's played even a couple sessions of D&D.
Plus!
Pixie. Biker. Gang!
I sometimes think, judging from how critics respond to things, that they aren't the target audience or even the audience that's hit when the target is missed.
It's got the same problem of not explaining to them what's readily apparent to anyone who's played even a couple sessions of D&D.
Plus!
Pixie. Biker. Gang!
I sometimes think, judging from how critics respond to things, that they aren't the target audience or even the audience that's hit when the target is missed.
12 April 2020
Mandatory Masking
Florida has an interesting statutes on the books:
876.12 Wearing mask, hood, or other device on public way.—No person or persons over 16 years of age shall, while wearing any mask, hood, or device whereby any portion of the face is so hidden, concealed, or covered as to conceal the identity of the wearer, enter upon, or be or appear upon any lane, walk, alley, street, road, highway, or other public way in this state.
History.—s. 2, ch. 26542, 1951.
876.13 Wearing mask, hood, or other device on public property.—No person or persons shall in this state, while wearing any mask, hood, or device whereby any portion of the face is so hidden, concealed, or covered as to conceal the identity of the wearer, enter upon, or be, or appear upon or within the public property of any municipality or county of the state.History.—s. 3, ch. 26542, 1951.
876.14 Wearing mask, hood, or other device on property of another.—No person or persons over 16 years of age shall, while wearing a mask, hood, or device whereby any portion of the face is so hidden, concealed, or covered as to conceal the identity of the wearer, demand entrance or admission or enter or come upon or into the premises, enclosure, or house of any other person in any municipality or county of this state.History.—s. 4, ch. 26542, 1951.
876.15 Wearing mask, hood, or other device at demonstration or meeting.—No person or persons over 16 years of age, shall, while wearing a mask, hood, or device whereby any portion of the face is so hidden, concealed, or covered as to conceal the identity of the wearer, hold any manner of meeting, make any demonstration upon the private property of another unless such person or persons shall have first obtained from the owner or occupier of the property his or her written permission to so do.History.—s. 5, ch. 26542, 1951.
Can the "authorities" order you to break the law?
"Batman" should not have been harassed or arrested because there's a clarifying statute:
876.155 Applicability; ss. 876.12-876.15.—The provisions of ss. 876.12-876.15 apply only if the person was wearing the mask, hood, or other device:(1) With the intent to deprive any person or class of persons of the equal protection of the laws or of equal privileges and immunities under the laws or for the purpose of preventing the constituted authorities of this state or any subdivision thereof from, or hindering them in, giving or securing to all persons within this state the equal protection of the laws;(2) With the intent, by force or threat of force, to injure, intimidate, or interfere with any person because of the person’s exercise of any right secured by federal, state, or local law or to intimidate such person or any other person or any class of persons from exercising any right secured by federal, state, or local law;(3) With the intent to intimidate, threaten, abuse, or harass any other person; or(4) While she or he was engaged in conduct that could reasonably lead to the institution of a civil or criminal proceeding against her or him, with the intent of avoiding identification in such a proceeding.History.—s. 1, ch. 81-249; s. 1416, ch. 97-102.
And there are exceptions and exemptions:
876.16 Sections 876.11-876.15; exemptions.—The following persons are exempted from the provisions of ss. 876.11-876.15:(1) Any person or persons wearing traditional holiday costumes;(2) Any person or persons engaged in trades and employment where a mask is worn for the purpose of ensuring the physical safety of the wearer, or because of the nature of the occupation, trade, or profession;(3) Any person or persons using masks in theatrical productions, including use in Gasparilla celebrations and masquerade balls;(4) Persons wearing gas masks prescribed in emergency management drills and exercises.History.—s. 6, ch. 26542, 1951; s. 46, ch. 83-334.
876.16(4) appears to cover wearing a protective mask to avoid disease. (3) appears to apply to "Batman".
It's a 2nd degree misdemeanor punishable with, up to, a $500 fine or, up to, 60 days in jail.
Sick Enough To...
A few days ago, on the 6th, they added hospitalizations to the list of things they were counting in Florida.
From no data to 1,719 in one swell foop. 2,633 most recently.
So I added a couple columns to my spreadsheet.
10.56% of people who felt sick or scared enough to get screened for testing have been found positive.
13.61% of those found positive were sick enough to be admitted.
Against the state population:
0.85% of the state population has been tested for Wu Ping Cough. This is still a self-selection item.
0.09% of the state population has been found positive with it.
0.01% of the state population has needed hospitalization from it.
0.002% of the state population has died from it.
From no data to 1,719 in one swell foop. 2,633 most recently.
So I added a couple columns to my spreadsheet.
10.56% of people who felt sick or scared enough to get screened for testing have been found positive.
13.61% of those found positive were sick enough to be admitted.
Against the state population:
0.85% of the state population has been tested for Wu Ping Cough. This is still a self-selection item.
0.09% of the state population has been found positive with it.
0.01% of the state population has needed hospitalization from it.
0.002% of the state population has died from it.
Speaking Of Miracles
Sir Stirling Moss has died, in bed, at 90.
Considering how deadly Formula One was in the years he was active there, it's amazing he lived to be 40, let alone 90.
Sir Moss was, like a few of us, living in the bonus time after a life which should have killed us.
Rest in Peace Sir.
Considering how deadly Formula One was in the years he was active there, it's amazing he lived to be 40, let alone 90.
Sir Moss was, like a few of us, living in the bonus time after a life which should have killed us.
Rest in Peace Sir.
Garbage In Garbage Out
I had recorded yesterday's death count at 458.
This morning's update says 452 and says it's an increase of 8 over yesterday.
The archive says 446 for yesterday.
Journalism isn't for the mathematically inclined, is it?
I've corrected my posts to show the amended 446. I suspect a few of the departed were reassessed and found to have died from something else.
Or I just misread the numbers.
All fixed now!
This morning's update says 452 and says it's an increase of 8 over yesterday.
The archive says 446 for yesterday.
Journalism isn't for the mathematically inclined, is it?
I've corrected my posts to show the amended 446. I suspect a few of the departed were reassessed and found to have died from something else.
Or I just misread the numbers.
All fixed now!
Definite Decline
That's definitely past the peak, and it essentially matches a normal flu curve from everything I've been seeing at CDC.
I think we can be cautiously optimistic and start restarting the economy.
And if someone from the government tries to stop us?
I think we should seriously consider shooting them.
Four Years
I am sitting here and considering my world snippet.
I chose 1899 for the campaign year.
It's not inconceivable, what with travel times, that the troop will return from a mission to be ordered to turn in the Krags and be issued M1903's.
It's already an alternate history with magic...
The .30 caliber M1903 was notably behind the times when it was developed. The design process, greatly oversimplified, was essentially "make .30-40 rimless and up the velocity".
But .30-03 was a very heavy round and it wasn't going fast enough to keep the ballistics from getting a tad "rainbow-like".
What if... Jeebus, how much fiction starts with this thought?
What if someone at Springfield National Armory said, "Guys, we're already raping Mauser's patents with our rifle..." and chose the round they were in such great admiration of?
Caliber .28 M1903, known in the rest of the world as 7x57mm Mauser.
I like the taste of it.
7x57mm would become "America's" cartridge. Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, because of Spain, had already adopted it.
Then the same case would be just fine with spitzer rounds in 1906 and 28-06 becomes a thing!
I'm in!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
Plus! In 1932, the Garand gets a 10-round capacity!
I chose 1899 for the campaign year.
It's not inconceivable, what with travel times, that the troop will return from a mission to be ordered to turn in the Krags and be issued M1903's.
It's already an alternate history with magic...
The .30 caliber M1903 was notably behind the times when it was developed. The design process, greatly oversimplified, was essentially "make .30-40 rimless and up the velocity".
But .30-03 was a very heavy round and it wasn't going fast enough to keep the ballistics from getting a tad "rainbow-like".
What if... Jeebus, how much fiction starts with this thought?
What if someone at Springfield National Armory said, "Guys, we're already raping Mauser's patents with our rifle..." and chose the round they were in such great admiration of?
Caliber .28 M1903, known in the rest of the world as 7x57mm Mauser.
I like the taste of it.
7x57mm would become "America's" cartridge. Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, because of Spain, had already adopted it.
Then the same case would be just fine with spitzer rounds in 1906 and 28-06 becomes a thing!
I'm in!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
Plus! In 1932, the Garand gets a 10-round capacity!
11 April 2020
Overly Complicated
My Father In Law's truck decided to not start this morning.
Because I'm the "mechanic" in the family, he asked me to look at it.
I suspected the battery but feared it was the starter.
When he tried to crank it, there was the clunk of the starter solenoid but no cranking of the motor.
The battery didn't drop but half a volt while making the clunk.
"Dammit! That's a starter," I think.
I don't know why I thought to check the under-hood electrical center, but I did. There are two relays associated with the starter, "RUN/CRANK" and "STRTR". I swapped the run/crank for the retained accessory power relay and it fired right up!
$22 later and a new relay in the run/crank spot and it's all better.
Hurray!
Cars these days.
Turning the key to "crank" doesn't make a direct connection to the starter. It sends a request to the computer to start the engine and then it sends out the commands to get things rolling. That means relays in abundance.
The Precious sounds like a typewriter during start up and shut down from all the relay activity under the dash.
Because I'm the "mechanic" in the family, he asked me to look at it.
I suspected the battery but feared it was the starter.
When he tried to crank it, there was the clunk of the starter solenoid but no cranking of the motor.
The battery didn't drop but half a volt while making the clunk.
"Dammit! That's a starter," I think.
I don't know why I thought to check the under-hood electrical center, but I did. There are two relays associated with the starter, "RUN/CRANK" and "STRTR". I swapped the run/crank for the retained accessory power relay and it fired right up!
$22 later and a new relay in the run/crank spot and it's all better.
Hurray!
Cars these days.
Turning the key to "crank" doesn't make a direct connection to the starter. It sends a request to the computer to start the engine and then it sends out the commands to get things rolling. That means relays in abundance.
The Precious sounds like a typewriter during start up and shut down from all the relay activity under the dash.
It Really Is Slowing Down
Our good, Chinese, friend Wu Ping Cough is definitely slowing in rate.
Its last doubling of infections, in Florida, took 8-1/2 days.
Even the overnight deaths looked to be slowing a bit.
It's worse than the flu in many regards, but it was probably not worth the damage that's being done to the economy to reduce the rate.
It's also not the apocalyptic plague that so many people predicted and cheered for.
One good thing is the week 14 Influenza Like Infection chart is taking a nosedive.
Its last doubling of infections, in Florida, took 8-1/2 days.
Even the overnight deaths looked to be slowing a bit.
It's worse than the flu in many regards, but it was probably not worth the damage that's being done to the economy to reduce the rate.
It's also not the apocalyptic plague that so many people predicted and cheered for.
One good thing is the week 14 Influenza Like Infection chart is taking a nosedive.
For perspective, the CDC is reporting over 39 million normal flu infections and around 24,000 deaths.
Wu Ping cough is at 1,760,853 cases worldwide as of this writing and has 107,644 deaths.
Wu Ping cough is at 523,541 confirmed cases in the US as of this writing and has 20,198 deaths.
Way worse per case, but not completely unheard of for other forms of flu to do (flu just needs a lot more cases to do it and gets them because it's actually a lot more infectious.)
09 April 2020
Drinking Local
And yes, I love Legos!
Especially Imperial armor. Silly as walkers are.
I also notice that an Ogre Mk V is just visible.
I Have A Modest Suggestion
Wu Ping Cough hits Saudi Royal Family.
I suggest we deny them entry to the US for medical treatment.
Remember what happened last time we let a critically ill middle-eastern royal come here?
Our embassy got taken over by shit-heads and their country turned into a shit-hole.
I suggest we deny them entry to the US for medical treatment.
Remember what happened last time we let a critically ill middle-eastern royal come here?
Our embassy got taken over by shit-heads and their country turned into a shit-hole.
08 April 2020
Nationalized
I'm going to make a post out of it instead of making the comment thread longer.
Having fun with cars and guns often rubs into clubs and sanctioning bodies.
And rules. Can't have a club without rules!
As with all human endeavors, the people you're dealing with at the local level are what makes or breaks how much fun being a member of a club is.
Too often, no matter how great the local people are, the national organization's rules and requirements suck the fun right back out of things.
You wanna play on their track, or range, and you follow their rules. Whether they make sense at your venue or not.
But! with a good local club this doesn't matter because the focus is on doing the fun and not on the rules. Yes, they are followed, but they're in the background.
This runs fine until someone from a different club affiliated club moves in or newly joins and they want it run alles en ordnung.
Then that national affiliation you only got to get access to tracks, insurance and EMT presence... those fuckers will help the cocksucker whose only source of fun is making sure the officious rules are applied good and hard and that those rules become the focus of everything the club does.
Rigid adherence to parliamentary procedure at meetings becomes the norm and they lose the social gathering aspect that got the original group there.
Suddenly it's not fun any more and never will be again.
So the core group keeps being social, but stops paying their dues.
Remember, hobbies are supposed to be fun!
This has happened to me so many times that whenever anyone recommends "check out this national org to..." my kneejerk response is, "fuck that, it never works for me."
There's three Corvette clubs around here that are absolutely ruled by the rules-mongers. I'm pretty sure all three are different affiliations and I know for sure they all hate each other. Hating the other two clubs is a requirement.
It's hilarious watching them be genuinely happy and social at the Porsche club autocrosses. But the Porsche people had to put their foot down and say, "Our club OUR rules," to keep the conflicts from spilling in.
If you have a good club, fight to keep that fucker good and yours and make damn sure the newbs know it.
Having fun with cars and guns often rubs into clubs and sanctioning bodies.
And rules. Can't have a club without rules!
As with all human endeavors, the people you're dealing with at the local level are what makes or breaks how much fun being a member of a club is.
Too often, no matter how great the local people are, the national organization's rules and requirements suck the fun right back out of things.
You wanna play on their track, or range, and you follow their rules. Whether they make sense at your venue or not.
But! with a good local club this doesn't matter because the focus is on doing the fun and not on the rules. Yes, they are followed, but they're in the background.
This runs fine until someone from a different club affiliated club moves in or newly joins and they want it run alles en ordnung.
Then that national affiliation you only got to get access to tracks, insurance and EMT presence... those fuckers will help the cocksucker whose only source of fun is making sure the officious rules are applied good and hard and that those rules become the focus of everything the club does.
Rigid adherence to parliamentary procedure at meetings becomes the norm and they lose the social gathering aspect that got the original group there.
Suddenly it's not fun any more and never will be again.
So the core group keeps being social, but stops paying their dues.
Remember, hobbies are supposed to be fun!
This has happened to me so many times that whenever anyone recommends "check out this national org to..." my kneejerk response is, "fuck that, it never works for me."
There's three Corvette clubs around here that are absolutely ruled by the rules-mongers. I'm pretty sure all three are different affiliations and I know for sure they all hate each other. Hating the other two clubs is a requirement.
It's hilarious watching them be genuinely happy and social at the Porsche club autocrosses. But the Porsche people had to put their foot down and say, "Our club OUR rules," to keep the conflicts from spilling in.
If you have a good club, fight to keep that fucker good and yours and make damn sure the newbs know it.
Graphic Depiction
That sure looks like the back side of peak to me. Chart from here and applies to Florida only.
And weeks earlier than projected.
I'm confident we'll have ample courses of treatments and possibly a vaccine when this thing comes back for round two in the winter. I expect this to be endemic, like the "common" cold and the flu.
I also expect it to be casually ignored just like we ignore Asian Flu, SARS, MERS and Swine Flu.
07 April 2020
One Nice Thing
The Boy and I took advantage of the lack of traffic and went for a spirited drive in The Precious.
What's the point of owning a Vette if you don't stretch her legs from time to time?
Patterson Road and Baillie's Bluff Road are two excellent twisty roads around here.
It's relaxing to row through the gears, match revs and do some heel and toe.
Relaxing for me.
For The Boy this is a roller coaster set to 11.
It's also a stark contrast to taking it to an autocross. Autocross isn't relaxing. It's fun, but different and not relaxing.
What's the point of owning a Vette if you don't stretch her legs from time to time?
Patterson Road and Baillie's Bluff Road are two excellent twisty roads around here.
It's relaxing to row through the gears, match revs and do some heel and toe.
Relaxing for me.
For The Boy this is a roller coaster set to 11.
It's also a stark contrast to taking it to an autocross. Autocross isn't relaxing. It's fun, but different and not relaxing.
Nobody Recovers
"The state is not reporting a total number of "recovered' coronavirus
[Wu Ping Cough] patients. As of Monday, 1,719 were currently hospitalized for treatment."
This is included in the same report that listed 13,629 out of 126,048 people tested had been found to have Wu Ping Cough.
Out of 126,048 people who felt they were sick enough to seek medical attention, 13,629 were found to have the Chinese Death Fever and of those 13,629 a mere 1,719 required hospitalization?
Or is it still require hospitalization? How many hospitalized have been treated and released?
We have 254 corpses from this.
With these numbers we have a minuscule portion of the population who have tested positive, and only those who feel sick enough and scared enough to go to a doctor or a testing location have been tested.
So, of the positives 14.5% are the dead and hospitalized. 1.9% are dead.
0.06% of the population of Florida has tested positive.
0.001% of the population of Florida has died from it.
Only 0.59% of the population of Florida has felt sick or scared enough to be tested.
Can we reopen some businesses now?
This is included in the same report that listed 13,629 out of 126,048 people tested had been found to have Wu Ping Cough.
Out of 126,048 people who felt they were sick enough to seek medical attention, 13,629 were found to have the Chinese Death Fever and of those 13,629 a mere 1,719 required hospitalization?
Or is it still require hospitalization? How many hospitalized have been treated and released?
We have 254 corpses from this.
With these numbers we have a minuscule portion of the population who have tested positive, and only those who feel sick enough and scared enough to go to a doctor or a testing location have been tested.
So, of the positives 14.5% are the dead and hospitalized. 1.9% are dead.
0.06% of the population of Florida has tested positive.
0.001% of the population of Florida has died from it.
Only 0.59% of the population of Florida has felt sick or scared enough to be tested.
Can we reopen some businesses now?
06 April 2020
Lazy Sunday Numbers
No new tests, but 974 new cases overnight. Almost as if the lab took Sunday off and caught up this morning.
If the evening update is small, we're through this, I think.
If not...
It's not like they're going to admit it's over until there are zero new cases.
New cases and new tests are still advancing at about the same rate with cases staying consistently in the 9-11% of tests.
The longer this relationship goes on, the more convinced I am that we're not measuring the spread of the disease but merely counting the number of people who feel sick enough to see a doctor about their symptoms.
It's still an insignificant percentage of Florida residents.
I'm getting more convinced that we've been had by computer models which should never have been trusted because the garbage in wasn't even good enough to be called garbage.
If the evening update is small, we're through this, I think.
If not...
It's not like they're going to admit it's over until there are zero new cases.
New cases and new tests are still advancing at about the same rate with cases staying consistently in the 9-11% of tests.
The longer this relationship goes on, the more convinced I am that we're not measuring the spread of the disease but merely counting the number of people who feel sick enough to see a doctor about their symptoms.
It's still an insignificant percentage of Florida residents.
I'm getting more convinced that we've been had by computer models which should never have been trusted because the garbage in wasn't even good enough to be called garbage.
05 April 2020
Parking
I should not pick on pickup owners alone in their inability to place their vehicle centered between two painted lines in a parking lot.
It's not just them.
It's just that full-size trucks and SUV are just so much larger than cars it exacerbates the condition of being a shitty driver.
Parking spaces, in case you had not noticed, are actually narrower than they were 30 years ago and more people are driving larger vehicles than back then.
Doing less with more...
It's not just them.
It's just that full-size trucks and SUV are just so much larger than cars it exacerbates the condition of being a shitty driver.
Parking spaces, in case you had not noticed, are actually narrower than they were 30 years ago and more people are driving larger vehicles than back then.
Doing less with more...
Morning Report
The morning report for Florida is out.
For the fourth day in a row we're on track for an increase in cases of about 1,200 people,
That means the daily rate of increase falls again; and that's the number to watch for when we crest the curve.
Deaths are still coming in clumps.
Update: While there were 600 or so new cases in the morning report, it didn't make 1,200. Just 805 new cases.
That could be significant! It could mean we're over the hump. Fingers crossed.
If we are over the hump that also pretty much confirms it was here a lot longer than mid-February.
For the fourth day in a row we're on track for an increase in cases of about 1,200 people,
That means the daily rate of increase falls again; and that's the number to watch for when we crest the curve.
Deaths are still coming in clumps.
Update: While there were 600 or so new cases in the morning report, it didn't make 1,200. Just 805 new cases.
That could be significant! It could mean we're over the hump. Fingers crossed.
If we are over the hump that also pretty much confirms it was here a lot longer than mid-February.
Not From Your Truck
Tailgating comes from the tailgate of a station wagon, not from the tailgate of a pickup.
That means that a cross-over SUV is more heir to the term than an F-150 or Silverado.
How do we know this?
The term predates when people owning a pick-up was common.
At one time a station wagon was as ubiquitous as a minivan was in the 80's and 90's and crossover SUV's are today. In those days, if someone owned a pickup, they used it for work and the things were appropriately austere.
The term dates all the way back to 1958! That's station wagons, not pickups.
Do not cluck at me for having the wrong vehicle when I'm using my Equinox and you're in your RAM.
Though, despite having the proper heir to the station wagon, it doesn't actually have a tailgate.
At least I can park. It's a rare full-size truck owner who seems to have learned this skill.
Kudos to those who have! Please join me in mocking those who cannot.
That means that a cross-over SUV is more heir to the term than an F-150 or Silverado.
How do we know this?
The term predates when people owning a pick-up was common.
At one time a station wagon was as ubiquitous as a minivan was in the 80's and 90's and crossover SUV's are today. In those days, if someone owned a pickup, they used it for work and the things were appropriately austere.
The term dates all the way back to 1958! That's station wagons, not pickups.
Do not cluck at me for having the wrong vehicle when I'm using my Equinox and you're in your RAM.
Though, despite having the proper heir to the station wagon, it doesn't actually have a tailgate.
At least I can park. It's a rare full-size truck owner who seems to have learned this skill.
Kudos to those who have! Please join me in mocking those who cannot.
Once Again I Was Ahead Of The Curve
It would appear that the rest of the internet using gun-owning world has finally noticed that Caleb Giddings is a prick.
All it took was for him to shit on Paul Harrell.
I noticed years ago when he shit on Erin, then when he shat on me for confronting his, then, fiance over the term "assault rifle".
The wheels turn slow, but they grind fine.
I do wonder if certain gun writers will continue to claim him as a friend.
All it took was for him to shit on Paul Harrell.
I noticed years ago when he shit on Erin, then when he shat on me for confronting his, then, fiance over the term "assault rifle".
The wheels turn slow, but they grind fine.
I do wonder if certain gun writers will continue to claim him as a friend.
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